00:00So ESPN.com just put out their post-NBA Combine mock draft.
00:08Number one overall, they do have the Wizards taking A.J. DeBonsa.
00:13What's written is the Wizards became the talk of the Combine after making good on their lottery odds,
00:19setting them up to pick number one for the first time since 2010.
00:23It's worth underscoring that there's still uncertainty around which direction Washington will go,
00:28but DeBonsa has become the presumptive favorite with his size and projectable tools aligning with things the Wizards' decision makers
00:36have valued.
00:37DeBonsa measured in at six foot, eight and a half barefoot at the Combine with a plus four wingspan
00:44and a posted 42-inch vertical leap helping quantify the elite physical piece of this projection.
00:53Rival teams don't view DeBonsa as a lock to go first, however,
00:57as there has been no true consensus number one among scouts all season.
01:03Darren Peterson, Cam Boozer, and Caleb Wilson are all expected to receive consideration as the Wizards go through their process.
01:09The fact that there is a consensus group of four has led some executives
01:14to view the top of this draft as more ripe for trades than in a typical year,
01:22but only if the top four teams see value in moving around within that tier.
01:27Any trade dynamics will take time to play out,
01:29with the case typically being that the team with the top pick will simply wind up selecting the player it
01:35wants most.
01:36Brian Windhorst, who I think does a great job covering the league for ESPN and has for years,
01:42he actually had something to say the other day about the possibility of the Wizards dealing number one.
01:49And here's what he said for the next 40 days or so.
01:52You know, the sentiment that I have heard is that Washington is sending out the message that they're willing to
01:57deal,
01:57but that if they do a deal, people think it will most likely not be with Utah.
02:03But of course, there's a long time between now and then.
02:07I feel pretty confident the Wizards are going to pick somebody number one, and that's what's going to do.
02:10There were some, oh, how do I want to say this?
02:14It's feathers ruffled in Salt Lake City about perceived shenanigans with Ace Bailey in the pre-draft process last year.
02:26They thought maybe there were some shenanigans with the Wizards who signed a two-way player named Sharif Cooper,
02:34who's Omar Cooper's son.
02:37Anyways, so I don't know if those guys are going out to lunch or anything.
02:41By the way, in terms of the history of the number one pick being traded,
02:46if you remove Andrew Wiggins, who was traded in August as part of the Kevin Love thing,
02:51it wasn't traded on, you know, in and around the draft.
02:54Well, I'm just, it was traded.
02:55You know, I just want to remove that.
02:57No, but I know what you mean.
02:57Yeah.
02:59Since 1980, it's happened four times.
03:02Okay.
03:03Weber?
03:05Yes, 1993.
03:06Does he come back to talking about the Wizards or not?
03:08Penny Hardaway?
03:09Okay.
03:09You mentioned Tatum.
03:11What were the other ones?
03:11Max?
03:12Well, Markel Fultz for Tatum.
03:14Yeah, that's right.
03:15And then the other one, 1980, Joe Barry Carroll was traded from the Pistons to the Warriors.
03:21Go ahead and dump it.
03:23Yeah.
03:23Yeah.
03:24We let that go on a little bit too long.
03:26You heard the beginning.
03:27That was Brian Windhorst talking about there is belief that the league, that the Wiz, around the league,
03:33that the Wizards are open to discussing trading number one.
03:38You know, the Utah thing has been a discussion since the draft lottery, and part of it is just because
03:52A.J. DeBonsa has apparently a relationship with the Utah owner and knows the Jazz organization, having played in the
03:59state at BYU.
04:00And Washington having this interest in Ace Bailey from a year ago, he had a really good rookie season for
04:10the Jazz.
04:11I'll tell you what, personally, if you were going to trade back down, I'd want Keontae George, the guard, the
04:18three-year guard out of Baylor, who averaged 24 a game for Utah last year.
04:25But you could have Keyshawn and Keontae both on the team in terms of the Georges.
04:31But I don't think they're going to trade it.
04:34Here's the bottom line from my standpoint.
04:36If you have a clear-cut number one, and that player is a player you believe has a chance to
04:46be that future, you know, true all-NBA, MVP-contending player in five, six, seven years, you take that player.
04:57That's why you did this.
04:59This is why you lifted all those weights for these last three years, to put yourself into a position where
05:06you could pick the player in the draft that you thought had a chance to be an elite-level superstar
05:14player.
05:15So if there's just one player that they feel that way about, you have to take that player.
05:21If it's Darren Peterson, you just have to make sure that the reward is worth the risk, if you believe
05:30there's risk associated with the player.
05:32There's risk with every player that they're not going to turn out to be, you know, all-time great.
05:37But everybody understands the Darren Peterson red flags.
05:45You cannot draft him if you think this guy doesn't love basketball, no matter what his talent is.
05:53But as far as they're concerned, they're in that position where if there's one player they believe in, you take
05:59the player, you can listen to everybody, but you're going to take that player.
06:03If there's more than one player that you believe has, you know, that they have equal chances of becoming great,
06:10you consider a trade back.
06:11Why not? If you're, you know, between two players and they're pretty equal, or if you don't think there is
06:18a player in this draft, you know, you think this is an Anthony Bennett, you know, 2013 draft where he
06:26went number one or a Markel Fultz draft in 2017 where he went number one.
06:31And you don't see a future, you know, true superstar, then you consider trading back.
06:37You know, number one overall hasn't always worked out in the NBA.
06:42It has recently, at least it appears it has worked recently, Cooper flag last year.
06:48Now, Riss Ache was the number one pick the year.
06:51Sar went number two in 2024.
06:53That does not look like at this point that the Hawks got themselves a future superstar.
06:59But Wemby the year before that in 2023, Bancaro the year before that in 2022, Cade Cunningham in 2021, Anthony
07:08Edwards in 2020.
07:09I mean, we've had six straight years where five of the six number ones overall, one looks like he may
07:19become the greatest player of all time.
07:21One is truly, two of them are truly elite level, you know, all NBA first team MVP contenders in Cade
07:31Cunningham and Anthony Edwards.
07:32I think Paulo Bancaro is perhaps a future first team all NBA, second team all NBA kind of a player.
07:39Uh, so not bad for the last six years, five out of the six really look like they're going to
07:46work out.
07:46But when you go back before the last six years, 2019 Zion and Zion was camp miss Deandre Aiton the
07:54year before Markel Fultz in 17, Ben Simmons in 16, Carl Anthony Townsend 15.
08:00He's a really good player, not a MVP caliber player, Andrew Wiggins in 2014, Anthony Bennett in 2013.
08:08I mean, there was a stretch there of one, two, three, four, five, six out of seven, basically nothing.
08:18And then you had Anthony Davis in 2012, Kyrie in 2011, John Wall in 2010.
08:23I mean, you can go back and play this game basically over the last 50 years, it's basically a, about
08:28a 48% hit rate, a number one becoming truly great.
08:34So the odds are a little bit against them that they're going to land on somebody really great.
08:40That's why you've got to be open-minded and you got to listen to offers because those offers could create
08:46more swings,
08:47or you could potentially acquire, as Oklahoma City did, because they did not draft Shea Gilgis Alexander, they traded for
08:56him.
08:57So the flexibility that the Wizards have created over the last three years, not only includes more swings in the
09:05draft,
09:06but it includes having the firepower, having the ammo to be able to pull off, you know,
09:12a trade for maybe a player that they believe could turn into a great player down the road, but just
09:19hasn't yet.
09:20Maybe they see Ace Bailey as that.
09:22I personally don't, but maybe they do.
09:24Maybe they like Ace Bailey more than DeBonsa or Peterson or Boozer.
09:31My guess, though, I think the odds-on favorite is the Wizards' stick and pick on June 23rd.
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