00:00Hey guys, how are you?
00:01What's up?
00:01Good morning, how you doing, buddy?
00:03I was better before the schedule came out.
00:05Oh yeah, it's a little bit, uh, it's interesting.
00:09It's a little top-heavy.
00:10Oh my god.
00:12Yeah, it's, uh, yeah, they weren't done any favors.
00:16I mean, they get a little bit of a break, um, but it's after, like, just a completely
00:24brutal stretch.
00:27Um, it's gonna be tough.
00:28It's gonna be tough.
00:30The, weeks eight through ten is what's, you know, I think is really tough, because you
00:35have, you have Sunday night at Philly, and then you got the early game against the Rams
00:39the following week, and then you're playing Thursday night football against the Giants.
00:46Um, that's, that's tough, and then, you know, they do get the breather coming into, going
00:52against Cincy, but, um, yeah, I mean, playing out and playing Philly, Seattle, San Francisco,
00:59um, even Dallas is gonna be tough, um, they gotta find a way to steal one of the first
01:04two.
01:05But think about this.
01:05They gotta find a way.
01:06The Cincy game, they play Cincy on Monday night, right?
01:09Yeah.
01:10All right?
01:10Yeah.
01:11And then the following...
01:11After Thursday night.
01:12Right, after Thursday, and then the following week, they have to go to Arizona, so a short
01:16week, you gotta travel to Arizona.
01:18Now, Arizona is one of the give-me's on the schedule, but that's still not an easy little
01:21stretch for travel purposes.
01:23No, it's a brutal, it's a brutal way to come out of the bye week.
01:28Um, and they may be limping into the bye week, so, yeah, I mean, you know, have the bleep
01:36button ready for the callers, because I think, uh, there's gonna be a lot of sad people.
01:40Well, I think that there's a delusional crowd that's, that just thinks we can beat anybody.
01:46Um, and maybe we, I mean, we can on any given week, but they couldn't have stacked it, I
01:51don't think, any harder.
01:53Like, given that we already knew the opponents.
01:55You know what I mean?
01:56Yeah.
01:56Yeah, what's tough to me is that they're in, they're in blocks, right?
02:01I mean, Philly, at Philly, at Dallas versus Seattle, very tough.
02:05Woo!
02:05Um, you know, then you have, at San Francisco, and then we go in the bye week, and then we
02:10just talked about that next tough stretch.
02:14Um, yeah, I mean, it's, uh, it's, uh, it's, uh, it's, uh, it's, uh, it's, uh, it's,
02:15uh, it's tough, and then, you know, the, the, the second half, like, the, the last
02:20third of the season seems very manageable, but you do have to worry, you know, worry
02:25about what they might be playing for after that.
02:28Yeah, I mean, honestly, the season could be over after three weeks.
02:31They gotta, yeah, I mean, if they're 0-3, season's done, but they gotta find a way to
02:34win one of those first three.
02:36One of the first.
02:37You're not gonna beat Seattle.
02:38I mean, maybe you get a miracle.
02:39You never know.
02:40A miracle from God.
02:41But you're not, to think you're gonna beat them is delusional.
02:44I mean, they're, look, they'll be the underdog, no doubt, but then you gotta beat the Colts
02:49over there in London, and then you gotta come back and beat the Giants, uh, the, what are
02:53they, that's, that's the next week, right?
02:54They don't have a bye week after the Colt game, so they gotta find a way, they have to
02:58find a way to beat the Colts and the Giants.
03:00This really kills me, because before it came out, I, my, I gave it my most optimistic look,
03:06and I had him at 11.
03:07I don't even know how I can get him to seven or eight now.
03:09I had, I just, the way it starts out, because seasons have momentum, and I know that week
03:14to week you never know what you're gonna get, but there's, you know, you start out, oh,
03:19dig a big hole.
03:19But they are gonna beat teams that you didn't expect them to beat.
03:22They are.
03:22They'll beat teams that we think that they should lose to, but they're gonna lose to teams that
03:26we think they should beat.
03:28That always happens.
03:29Well, psychologically, having three tough games in the beginning is, is difficult, because
03:36everyone talks about the three, you know, oh, and three teams, the playoffs, you know,
03:41you're out of it already, that type stuff.
03:43Um, you know, I just think that it could be psychologically ugly early.
03:49But by the same token, if they get, if they're on it, and the changes they implement, they
03:54like thread the needle, and they made enough defensively to make it a little bit easier
03:59on the offense, and they fight, let's say, with a couple field goal games, and you start
04:02out two and one, man, that could really help you.
04:06Now you got Indy, you know, plausible, the Giants at home, plausible, so then you...
04:10You're absolutely right.
04:11They could, everything could be good.
04:13Like, we could, we could be fretting over nothing, and have faith in the front office
04:19to do what they needed to do, and they coach them up.
04:23Um, you're absolutely right.
04:24And they, um, you know, they start to stun some people.
04:27Um, obviously, health is gonna be a big factor.
04:30Um, I don't really think that you can put much stock in what happened last year, because
04:35there was just so many injuries, and just so many issues.
04:38Um, but you're right.
04:39I mean, it, it, you should go in the season with some optimism.
04:43Um, but that optimism, it just might not last long.
04:47Um, but we'll see.
04:49It's football.
04:49It's what makes it fun.
04:50All right, Neil, let's move over to the Wizards.
04:52They were fortunate enough to land the number one overall pick, and now there's talk of
04:56them potentially moving off of the pick.
04:58Look, I trust Will Dawkins and Winger to do what's best for the franchise, but this fan
05:03base has endured a lot of losing to secure that number one pick.
05:06What are the markets looking like for the Wizards to either hold onto the pick or move off the
05:11pick and deal it to somebody else?
05:13Well, I, I, my hope is that they, um, they keep the pick.
05:21I mean, the, the prediction markets are, are saying, um, you know, that they'll probably
05:28keep the pick.
05:28It'll probably be, um, the kid from Utah, AJ.
05:32Um, but if I'm the Wizards, I am throwing so much smoke out there.
05:39I am talking about how much that, like, Boozer, I'm talking about Caleb Wilson being kind of
05:45like a dark horse in this whole thing.
05:47Um, obviously Darren Peterson is, um, kind of like a code number one in, in a lot of situations.
05:55Um, I'm just talking up everybody and I'm going to try to maximize the trade value of the pick.
06:01Um, because once you settle, like once they narrow it down to one or two players in any way,
06:08then the trade market's just going to dry up because people are going to just figure,
06:13oh, you know, this, it's not worth doing.
06:15Um, and then they'll start focusing maybe on Utah's pick.
06:18Um, but I do think that they have to take the pick.
06:21I think the downside of, um, you know, AJ going somewhere else and being a superstar
06:29is, is just way more devastating than if they pick him and it doesn't work out right away.
06:36Um, I don't think you ever go wrong taking the consensus number one pick in terms of like public
06:42opinion.
06:43And I think right now that plays a big role in what the Wizards are doing because they have
06:46to convince people that they, that they're going to contend.
06:49So you think they're going to keep the pick?
06:52I think they should.
06:53Yeah.
06:54Unless they get completely blown away by an offer, but you know, you have to think like
06:59what would Utah give aside from the number two pick that really puts this in a better position
07:06to contend?
07:07Cause that's what, I mean, the Wizards want to contend next year.
07:09I mean, that's, I don't think that that's a secret.
07:12Um, I don't think that they'll be happy being like a playoff play in contender type team.
07:18Um, so I think they need to get, they, they need to make the biggest possible splash.
07:22So I texted, uh, Neil yesterday and I said, I said, bro, what are your, I finally got
07:27your new number.
07:28I've been texting some rando for months.
07:30Oh really?
07:31I thought you had my new one.
07:33They have all my sillies and all my big fat winners.
07:36You got all your plays.
07:37I've had that number for like a year and a half.
07:39I can't believe it took this one.
07:40I'm aware, Jason.
07:41I am aware.
07:42All right.
07:42Sorry.
07:43Anyway, I told him I was, I just got a vibe on great white.
07:46That's the one horse I'm just kind of vibing.
07:48Okay.
07:48For the preakness.
07:49For the preakness.
07:50Um, based on the expectations for the Kentucky Durban, of course he was scratched, but there's
07:5614 horses.
07:57I think he's like 20 to one or 15 to one.
08:00No, he's been bet down to six to one.
08:02Oh, he has.
08:03Oh, all right.
08:04So talk to me about great white.
08:06Okay.
08:06So, um, first this, this, this, this preakness field is going to have a lot of speed.
08:11There are a lot of horses that want to get to the front.
08:14Um, I think that they, they all, a lot of them need to be to get to the front to
08:18be successful.
08:19So I think we're going to see a very, very fast pace, which sets up well for a horse like
08:24great white, um, because he doesn't go with the front runners.
08:28He's right behind them and he's a tactical stalker.
08:31And I think, um, he could have, uh, the pace is set up for him to have a really good
08:37run.
08:38And I think that's why he's taking a lot of money, um, because people are seeing that
08:43and, and they, they don't really have a lot of interest in the, the horses that are going
08:48to be at the front.
08:49So I think great white is certainly a horse worth, we're talking about.
08:53Um, I also like the number five talking.
08:56Um, he's another horse that looks really good, um, in terms of the, the pace set up.
09:02And also he's, um, he, he's just been steadily improving.
09:08Um, this isn't a field that has like anybody that's done anything at note.
09:12There's only a couple of graded stakes winners.
09:14And, and neither of those were graded threes, which are, are the, are the lowest of the
09:19graded stakes.
09:20Um, and anyone that's won a grade one, the top, uh, they did it as a two year old.
09:25So it's been a while.
09:26So these aren't horses that have a lot of wins.
09:29Some don't have any wins like Ocelli.
09:31Um, some have never beaten winners.
09:33Um, so this is a, I think it was a good betting race, especially if, um, you know, you, you
09:39think
09:40like I do, that it's going to be a hot pace with a meltdown.
09:43Um, you can get some big price horses in there when, when stuff like that happens.
09:47All right.
09:47So you like great white, you like Ocelli, right?
09:50I like Ocelli because again, he's the closer in the race.
09:53Right.
09:54And I do think that, uh, he can hang on for a piece and he should be a pretty decent
09:58price.
09:59Okay.
09:59And then, uh, Chip Honcho.
10:01I know you like Chip.
10:02Yep.
10:02Chip Honcho, number six, another horse, um, that, um, he, this is the horse that he will
10:09be at the front, but I think among the front runners can carry the speed the longest.
10:15So I think he could be one of the survivors.
10:17I don't know necessarily if he's going to win this thing, but, um, I do like him.
10:23You asked me for a trifecta.
10:24So I do like him to, to be a part of the trifecta.
10:27Love it.
10:28All right, Neil.
10:29Good stuff.
10:29People can subscribe to your sub stack.
10:31Fancy stats dot sub stack.com.
10:35Very nice.
10:36I love you boys.
10:37I love you too.
10:38Thank you, buddy.
10:39Appreciate it.
10:40See you, buddy.
10:40Fancy stats dot sub stack.com.
10:44Yeah.
10:44Get out there.
10:45Support Neil.
10:46Got a lot to get into on the show.
10:48Carl Olsner is going to join us in studio a little bit later.
10:50Former caps defenseman and Mike North, who's the VP of broadcast planning is going to join
10:57us at nine 25 as we talk all about the NFL schedule, but coming up next, some interesting
11:03changes coming to East Potomac golf course in the area.
11:08We'll get into that next here on the junkies.
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