00:00Our parlay is hitting all-time lows.
00:05Drab went through it.
00:06I do know that this week, every one of us whiffed except for Valdez.
00:11One for seven this week.
00:13One for seven.
00:14Pretty tragic.
00:15Drab said that the week before, we were one for seven.
00:18I don't know who hit that week.
00:20And the week before, we were one for seven.
00:23I don't know.
00:23The only one of us.
00:25The parlay has been active for four weeks now.
00:29Yeah.
00:30Okay?
00:31Together, combined, we are six and 19, and that is a 24% clip.
00:40We're not picking 50-50 shots.
00:42Most of us are.
00:43Eric, most of us are.
00:44You did the James Wood plus 300 last week.
00:47Most of these bets are pretty close to even money.
00:51There has to be at least.
00:53Jason's average is plus 114.
00:55Cakes' average bet is minus 108.
00:57Mike is minus 116.
01:01What is mine?
01:02Yours is plus 212.
01:04JP's is plus 136.
01:06I'm plus 174.
01:08Drab's plus 171.
01:09I mean, I can go back to just picking 50-50 shots.
01:11But three out of all of us are basically hovering around even money.
01:16This is my opinion.
01:16Oh, forget the odds.
01:17There's a couple people who are just 0 for.
01:19Who's 0 for?
01:19Jason.
01:20Jason hasn't hit one bet.
01:22I know that Mike Marr during the break, he almost sounded like Jason 15 years ago.
01:28He's like, I'm winning all my bets at home.
01:32He's like, but I can't win on the show.
01:34It's tragic.
01:35I feel like we should just shelve it until football season.
01:38I would be fine.
01:39No.
01:39I would be fine going on a hiatus.
01:41We should be blink-182, go on hiatus.
01:44As far as the parlay is concerned.
01:46That is one option.
01:47I like giving the listeners the option to fade us.
01:51I like that, too.
01:52We're so horrible right now.
01:53Everyone complains every week that we suck, it's a waste of a segment, don't do it anymore.
01:59Let's give them the opportunity to make money off of it.
02:01But you have to pick something that's fadeable.
02:03We will.
02:03That's the new rule.
02:04At least for the time being, we can only make selections that are fadeable.
02:08Okay.
02:09Give an example of something that is and something that isn't.
02:13Reds-Cubs tonight.
02:15You could pick the run and a half, the run line, and you could pick the opposite side.
02:20So, if I take the Cubs minus one and a half, you would take the Reds plus one and a
02:24half.
02:24Give us one that's not fadeable.
02:26Well, like a James Wood home run.
02:28Yeah.
02:29Would not be fadeable.
02:29Austin Reeves, 25 points or more.
02:31Props.
02:32Mostly props.
02:32You could pick over-under on basketball, Embiid over-under 18 and a half points.
02:37Because you have two sides.
02:38Oh, you can.
02:39Okay.
02:39No.
02:40Well, if Valdez picks over that, you would pick under that.
02:42Yeah.
02:42But like...
02:43We'll set it up so you can take the opposite side.
02:46A pure fade.
02:46Yeah.
02:47So, when I bet an Embiid double-double, even though it hits, that's not really fadeable.
02:52You can't bet no on that.
02:54I mean, we were spectacularly bad these last couple weeks.
02:57I guess you could bet under 10 points.
02:59Could you?
03:00I don't know.
03:01I guess you could do like total rebounds.
03:03We're going to make it super simple.
03:05Where it's like a 50-50 shot.
03:07So, you're going to take the other side.
03:09What we can do is we give our rationale for our pick, and we give our pick, and then we
03:13immediately
03:14give what the fade is on it, so that everyone knows, not everyone has to go searching for
03:19it or anything like that, and we have it ready to go.
03:22And somebody will hit.
03:23Of course they will.
03:24Somebody will hit.
03:24Yeah.
03:24Well, if the fade parlay hits before the real parlay hits, then we're just...
03:29It's over.
03:30It's over for us.
03:31I mean, it's already over, but it's fun.
03:33I like it.
03:34I always feel confident.
03:36I thought for sure Wood was going to hit a bomb.
03:38I don't usually feel that confident.
03:40And it probably shows.
03:43How many have I hit?
03:44Have I hit one?
03:45Yeah, you hit one.
03:46The one that you did hit was plus 190.
03:50It was Cam Young top 10.
03:52That helps me a little bit.
03:54Yeah, but you're one and two.
03:56That helped.
03:56We're all in the negative in terms of net earnings.
03:59Yeah.
03:59This is atrocious.
04:01And then this is all based off of $100 bets.
04:05Okay.
04:05So EB is actually in the lead, parlay king.
04:08His net earnings are minus $10.
04:12JP is in second.
04:13Break even.
04:13Yeah.
04:14JP is in second at minus 104.76.
04:17I'm in third at minus 145.
04:19Drab's in fourth at minus 185.
04:22Then Marr, minus 205.
04:24Kicks, minus 209.
04:26Jason hasn't won a play.
04:28He's 0 for 3, minus 300.
04:30And he bets favorites half the time.
04:32And his average bet is plus 114.
04:36Right.
04:37So slight dogs.
04:38Slight dogs.
04:39Very, very slight.
04:40So we're going to make a parlay adjustment on Friday where we will make our picks, but
04:46we'll make them very fadable.
04:47Okay.
04:48All right.
04:48I like it.
04:49So you can definitely make money off the jump.
04:50You know what?
04:51Jason might be.
04:52This is just a working theory that I'm having because we all know Jason loves favorites.
04:57Right?
04:58Jason has never met a favorite he doesn't love.
05:00Yeah, I think this week he took the magic at home in game six, which made sense because
05:08the magic home game, closeout game, but of course that lost.
05:12Because he's plus 114, and that's very un-Jason-like.
05:15Usually he's not.
05:16So I think he might be fading his plays that he's doing on his own on the show.
05:21He's hedging himself.
05:23I'm telling you.
05:23Remember, we checked him somehow on FanDuel.
05:26There was a record of it.
05:27He had like 20,000 bets or whatever.
05:28And he was like at 500.
05:30It was basically a break-even.
05:32He'll bet like $3.79.
05:35It's irrelevant.
05:35He bets these weird numbers.
05:37It's an unwinnable game.
05:38Indeed.
05:38That's what it points out.
05:39The point is that the money is irrelevant.
05:41The fact is, but the sheer volume of bets, he was still around 500.
05:45I would have thought he was way worse.
05:47Let me tell you this about gambling, though.
05:48So I believe he took the magic on Friday night.
05:52The magic were up by 24 in the third quarter.
05:56So he's probably thinking, that's a big, fat winner.
05:59Then they missed 23 straight shots.
06:03That is sports gambling in a nutshell.
06:05Yeah, but he's gambling it up.
06:06An NBA team missed 23 straight shots, Cakes.
06:11He knows never to count his chickens, though.
06:13Like, you never turn on a game and say, oh, I have this bet.
06:18That one, if it looks like a lot, you never say that.
06:20He's lost way too many.
06:20He understands.
06:21It ain't over until it's over.
06:22It's still horrific luck.
06:23Anybody that has ever gambled knows you don't count until it's all zeros.
06:28Think about the luck.
06:29You bet on Orlando, whatever money line, whatever the heck he had, right?
06:32They're up by over 20 at the half.
06:35In the third quarter, they're up by 24.
06:37No, they should win that game.
06:39Of course.
06:40Have you ever heard of an NBA team missing 23 straight shots?
06:44No, I mean, it's a story.
06:45That's three-pointers, layups, everything.
06:47No, they're the best shooters in the world.
06:49It's crazy.
06:50This is how cold I am.
06:51On the derby on Saturday, there's 20 horses.
06:54I picked the one horse that fell over on his back four seconds before the race started.
07:00Scratched these out.
07:01I didn't even have time to put in another bet.
07:04He bucked the jockey off and fell on his ass.
07:07By the way, how great was that race?
07:10It was a lot of fun.
07:12Unbelievable.
07:12It was a lot of fun.
07:14Unbelievable race.
07:15From last to first.
07:16I mean, that is crazy to come from all the way back and win it.
07:19There have been some amazing finishes.
07:21You know, like, you know, where you get photo finishes, literally.
07:24You got to see it win by nose, whatever.
07:25That was just incredible.
07:29And what were the odds that that horse went off that?
07:3123 to one, right?
07:3223 to one.
07:3223 to one.
07:33Yeah.
07:33Yeah.
07:34Did Uncle Kenny hit?
07:35No.
07:36No.
07:37Not in that particular race?
07:38No.
07:39Yeah.
07:39Although he did tell me he had a good Saturday.
07:42Uh-huh.
07:43Just not the Derby.
07:45Just not the Derby.
07:46There's nothing like the Derby.
07:47I guess I was at a restaurant.
07:49Yeah.
07:49It really is cool.
07:50They cranked the sound up.
07:51The entire restaurant, everyone's standing up.
07:53There's just a huge buzz beforehand.
07:56Hooting and hollering.
07:57It really is the greatest two minutes.
07:59It is fun.
08:00It is so much fun.
08:01We were at my daughter's, like, prom picture thing, right?
08:02It was prom night.
08:03And all the guys, we were huddling around the phone, just, like, looking to see, like,
08:06has it gone off yet?
08:07Has it gone off yet?
08:08We were monitoring it while our daughters are, you know, taking their big prom.
08:11Because of the time investment, it might be the greatest sporting event in the world.
08:15Oh, yeah.
08:15You could literally just check in three minutes beforehand.
08:17I thread the needle.
08:18I saw them loading the horses in.
08:20Is it the chute, Valdez?
08:21I don't know.
08:21Whatever you call it.
08:22Gate?
08:23The gate.
08:23Okay.
08:24Loading them in.
08:24And, like, I turned it on when they were loading a horse, like, 18 in.
08:29I said, this is freaking perfect.
08:30And then I watched a great race.
08:32So, what is the story?
08:34What's the name of the horse again that won?
08:36Golden Tempo.
08:37Golden Tempo.
08:38Golden Tempo.
08:38So, this horse, I guess, has a history of kind of coming from behind that sort of thing?
08:42It's a stalker.
08:43There's a lot of different types of horses.
08:45There's horses that shoot out to the front to start.
08:48They're kind of top-heavy with speed.
08:50There's other horses that are kind of mid-level stalker horses.
08:54Then there's closers, like Golden Tempo.
08:57So, does this one have a shot in the next one?
09:00Probably not because the pace is – there's so many good horses and the pace is so severe.
09:06In the Derby, these stalker come from behind horses.
09:12They have a really good shot in it, but not necessarily in the Preakness because there's
09:15not as many horses that are going to jump out to the lead, tire, and then allow the horse
09:21to close at the end.
09:23Gotcha.
09:24Very cool, though.
09:25Be rooting for it.
09:26Be rooting for the double crown.
09:27Maybe Belmont since it's a longer race.
09:31Right.
09:32And you've got to wait for the pack to tire out.
09:34But it's going to have to be a little more aggressive if it wants to win the Preakness
09:37in all likelihood.
09:39All likelihood, yes.
09:41If it even races in the Preakness.
09:42It has to run in the Preakness.
09:43I think you have to.
09:44I believe you win the Derby.
09:45If you're not injured, you've got to run.
09:46You've got to give it a shot.
09:47I think they did that last year.
09:48They pulled him out.
09:49I know.
09:49For no reason.
09:51If you're healthy, you've got to at least make a run for it.
09:54Is there still the same amount, like five weeks or whatever, from the Derby?
09:58Five weeks total.
09:59Yeah, we talked about it.
10:00It's still the same thing?
10:01We talked about it recently because there are some in horse racing that are upset that
10:08winning horses are pulling out of the second leg of the Triple Crown because they feel like
10:13it's too fast.
10:14So there's talk about extending it.
10:15It's too hard on the horse.
10:16I get it.
10:17Was it Justify last year?
10:19Justify just they didn't do the same thing.
10:20And then I think Justify ran the Belmont and won the Belmont.
10:23The thing is, the prize is so great.
10:26You know, it's stud fees and everything.
10:28You don't want to do anything that's in danger.
10:29Yep.
10:301-800-636-1067.
10:33We're celebrating 30 years of the Junkies.
10:34Today is the anniversary.
10:36It all started on May 4th, 1996.
10:38Sorry, Sovereignty.
10:39Sovereignty, not Justify.
10:40We're playing music from 1996 throughout the show.
10:44Taking your calls with any early memories of the Junkies.
10:461-800-636-1067.
10:49Be right back.
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