How broker consolidation is changing real estate market share

HousingWire

On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Real Estate Editor Tracey Velt about brokerage consolidation and data sovereignty.   Related to this episode:   Compass leads the market, but these eXp, Real are closing the gap  https://www.housingwire.com/articles/compass-anywhere-real-remax-exp-market-share/   HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXDD_3y3LvU60vac7eki-6Q   More info about HousingWire  https://lnk.bio/housingwire   To learn more about Total Expert click here.  https://www.totalexpert.com/   The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.

Transcript

00:09Welcome, everyone. My guest today is real estate editor Tracy Belt to talk about brokerage

00:14consolidation and data sovereignty and what the changes mean for agents and brokers. I want to

00:19thank our sponsor, Total Expert, for making this episode possible. And before we dive into that

00:24topic, I'm going to do something new, a short recap of the top five stories on our site over

00:29the last 24 hours. I know a lot of you get your news through this podcast, so this is another

00:34way

00:34for us to highlight what's happening. At number five, we have the latest housing market tracker

00:38article, which is positive housing demand leads to inventory almost going negative. We see that

00:44same topic, housing demand, in the number two story with the headline, housing demand is concentrating

00:50where affordability still exists. These two articles are really a one-two punch that we do

00:55every week. So every week, we publish the tracker article by Logan on Saturday looking at the

01:01national data. And then every Wednesday, Rachel Bader does a story looking at how regional markets

01:06compare to that national data. That gives you a really comprehensive look at the market and what

01:12might be happening in your particular region. Back to our top five. In the fourth place, we have

01:17Zillow lawsuit sparks LinkedIn debate over listings transparency. This is a really interesting one.

01:22Errol Samuelson, Zillow's chief industry development officer, wrote a post on the antitrust lawsuit

01:30that his firm filed against Midwest real estate data and Compass on Tuesday, and it generated a huge

01:36debate on LinkedIn. So we cover that because it is something that's really interesting to our readers.

01:42In number three, we have the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Huge news, of course.

01:47And the number one story trending on our site is Two Harbors Board unanimously rejects UWM bid,

01:54calling it predatory. Our audience is very interested in any news on this potential deal,

01:58and we're following it all really closely. Check out all our incredible coverage on housingwire.com.

02:04Okay, let's dive into this important discussion about brokerage consolidation.

02:08Tracy, welcome back to the podcast.

02:10Good to be here.

02:11Oh my gosh. You know, I was like, I have got to have you on because there is so much

02:16going on

02:16in the real estate space, particularly brokerage consolidation. It feels like every day your team

02:23and you are breaking news. We have tons of real estate stuff going on. And I think if you're one

02:29step back, it's like, what does it all mean? And I was like, that's, that's what I would love to

02:33have

02:33you on. I know you've got some numbers and, and statistics behind it data. So let's start at the top

02:40and just talk about over the last year, we've had what we've had Compass bought anywhere recently real

02:46bought Remax and then eXp bought next home. Yes. So we're kind of moving into this multi-model

02:54structure where we're, we're a platform brokerage, which Compass is more traditional and they bought

03:01a traditional broker, but Compass is known for their technology and their technology platform.

03:07Real is kind of a platform brokerage. They, they have a tech platform that they offer their agents

03:15to run their businesses. And Remax is a franchise company. Um, eXp, same platform, um, company and

03:25they, and then they purchased next home, which is a franchise company. So all of these single entity

03:30brokerages are now also moving into franchise. Um, now Compass had said years ago that they were

03:39considering franchising the Compass brand. So that, uh, acquisition was huge, but not totally

03:46unexpected. We knew that Compass has been active in M&A for a while. I think the real Remax one

03:53through everyone, um, no one really knew real was looking to buy anyone. They knew Remax was probably

04:01going to be sold. Um, and that one's a really interesting one because the cultures are very

04:07different. Remax is known for their veteran real estate agents, high, high per agent productivity.

04:14Um, real is known for their kind of tech savvy, um, agents who are more, um, I don't want to

04:24say

04:24they're more entrepreneurial than Remax cause that's not necessarily true. Um, but the cultures

04:29are, are very different. Um, and then you've got eXp and next home, which in my opinion, totally

04:35align. I know the founders are, um, very aligned culturally on the business. So I think that

04:44the next wave will be really interesting. We looked at some of the numbers based on 2025 data.

04:51This is from the 2026 real trends verified rankings. So this is pre any of these acquisitions

04:57closing. And of course the real Remax one has not closed yet. Um, and I don't know about the eXp

05:04next home. Um, but basically on sides, Compass international holdings just kills everybody right now.

05:14Um, with 1.2 million sides and 940 billion in sales volume. Again, we don't know what's going

05:22to happen next year because we don't know, you know, breakage and, and what happens, how they grow,

05:28um, you know, who they keep, um, right under that is Keller Williams with 837,000 sides and 380

05:36billion. Um, and then third is the real Remax group with 510 sides and 230 billion. Um, and then

05:47you've got leading RE next eXp world holdings, home services, and Hannah. And so, um, it really

05:54bumped real Remax up to third. Uh, and you know, the Remax, because I think Remax might've been third

06:01already. So with real, um, it bumped real up. So with that massive, um, market share jump,

06:10which really Compass grew the most market share. Um, right now it seems to me that there's a lot

06:17of reasons for these. I mean, margins are thin. Everybody's looking for a ways to gain market share.

06:23And it's really hard to gain market share by just recruiting teams or agents. Um, and then you've

06:30got data, um, and the, you know, who has the listing is, you know, the winner in a lot of

06:38cases. So,

06:38well, in almost every case, so you've got the data component of this as well. And then, um, I think

06:46that the traditional franchise model was looking for an infusion of something to move them past.

06:57Most brokers in the past brokerages have grown to a certain point and they grew fast to a certain

07:04point. And then they just steady out, drop or steady out. Remax had done the same and they were

07:12starting to drop some. And so this infuses new life into the Remax, um, efficiency operationally,

07:20because they are now able to take advantage of the real platform if they choose to, because they're

07:26all independently owned franchises. So they don't have to, um, if they choose to. And we, I don't think

07:34they're going to run as a real culture. I think they're going to keep the Remax culture and run maybe

07:41more efficiently, um, with the real platform. So yeah, it'll be an interesting time.

07:47I think the cultural part is really interesting here because even when we had Compass in anywhere,

07:51two very, very different companies, I mean, obviously giants, like number one, number two,

07:56right. Um, and you talked about market share. I know that, um, when we looked at what their

08:02concentration was in some markets, it was like 70% in some markets with that, with that combination,

08:08you know, that the deal went through, there's, you know, no antitrust, uh, uh, blockages for that is

08:14what I would say. Um, but it's interesting because we heard right away that like, there are people who

08:18are really thrilled about that. There are people who won't, and that that's in any, in any merger,

08:23you're going to have that because they're like, you know, I, I was with this company for a reason,

08:26but from my perspective, I would love to know what you think about, like, what is the advantage here?

08:32So what's the advantage if you're, uh, if you're an agent now, if you're a broker now, what do you

08:37just have way more choice? Do you feel like, no, these, some of these things are going to make

08:42your life harder? What, how do they feel out there? Um, I think that for some brands, it might make

08:48it

08:49more difficult. Um, like in New York city, you've got a high concentration of luxury brokerages, um,

08:56and compass has a lot of market share there and in certain areas, but, but they're still going to be

09:02run, but your competition isn't really going to be different in that the cold oil banker will still

09:08be a cold oil banker you're competing against. And the, you know, Christie's international will still

09:13be the Christie's international you were competing against. Um, I think as far as the brokerages,

09:21well, first of all, it also remains to be seen whether there will be any antitrust

09:26to action because there have been some, um, Congress people who are pushing for it. So we'll

09:33see about that. Um, but also I think where you, what you're really going to see, I feel like the

09:39independence, those regional strong independents are going to possibly pick up some of the people,

09:47some of the agents who didn't really want to be affiliated with a huge brand. They really like

09:53that community feel that, um, you know, regional brand. Um, I think the boutique brokerages,

10:01they have their own niche and they're going to do well. And in an op-ed by Daryl Davis, he

10:06is a coach

10:07and thought leader. You know, he talked about that middle ground. Other leaders have mentioned that

10:13same thing. Those middle ground brokers are going to struggle. Um, and they're going to have to rethink

10:20their strategy on what, um, what they're going to do, especially in those high market share areas.

10:26Um, but in general, we're going to see a couple more of these combinations, um, in the future.

10:33And I think people will be surprised at who is really buying. Um, there aren't necessarily all

10:45traditional buyers that like, it's not always a brokerage buying a brokerage. Um, there's been a

10:50lot of interest out there from other companies as well. And, you know, we can see by the rocket

10:57Redfin deal, what possibly might be happening and compass is aligning themselves with rocket Redfin.

11:03I'm not saying this is any rumor or anything. I'm just totally making this up, but who's to say

11:09rocket won't buy compass international. I mean, eventually at some point there, there's a lot of

11:16things happening in the industry where what we used to think was going to happen. Isn't. And,

11:24you know, this has happened before financial services got into real estate with Merrill Lynch and,

11:30and that, um, buying up brokerages in the past. So this has happened before. It did not work out

11:37for them, but that doesn't mean it won't work out for some of the ones that are considering buying

11:43right now. So one of the things that I always wonder, we always wonder, right. Is like, you know,

11:48who gets to the buyer first. And to your point, like, it feels like that has really changed over

11:53the last year. Um, to me, that was one of the, uh, most interesting parts of the rocket Redfin deal.

12:00Um, and, and we see it through all these, uh, different acquisitions where it's like

12:04the person who gets there first and can offer a totally vertical vertically integrated, we would

12:10call it a one-stop shop end-to-end transaction, all the, all the industry things, but like basically

12:15just make it easy on the borrow on the borrower to be like, yes, I want this house. Okay. Give

12:21me a

12:21seamless experience. They don't care how that lines up. And I feel like that's the biggest change.

12:25It's also something, you know, as housing wire, because we cover both real estate and mortgage,

12:29and we see the, the, the way that these two industries are coming together more than ever.

12:34It's, it's wild. Yeah, definitely. And I think, um, I think real estate doesn't always understand that

12:40from the, the importance of them understanding the mortgage market from an executive level and the

12:48benefit of the gathering that we have that really combines both audiences on, because I think that

12:55we're heading in that direction, but I've had some leaders and thought leaders tell me, you know,

13:01think outside of RESPA compliance services, um, when thinking of buyers of these companies or

13:11companies that could be purchased. Um, it's not all mortgage or, you know, in real estate there's,

13:18it goes beyond that even. So I think we're in for a really interesting consolidation time.

13:24And, um, I, I think we'll see some surprises, maybe not this year. There'll be a couple because

13:30there's definitely from the rumor mill, there's several in the works. Um, but I think, you know,

13:37the next couple of years will really shake out to redefine the industry in a whole new way.

13:42That's really interesting. Cause of course I'm thinking, Oh, mortgage and, and, you know,

13:46real estate it's, and it's like, but it could be, it could be something completely different. What,

13:50what are we going to have like Walmart by, uh, by these companies? We're going to have Amazon by,

13:54I think Amazon already. Well, we had Sears do it at one point. So who knows?

14:00That's right. That was forever ago. Oh my gosh. Okay. In addition to all the other things going on,

14:06we of course still have, and then in that vein of who gets to the, uh, borrower first or the

14:12buyer

14:12first is all of the portal wars that continue to go on. We've had tons of, of news about that

14:18with

14:19Zillow and other things just this week. We had a cotality launching broker listing exchange with

14:24KW and home services. What does that mean? What should I, what's the takeaway there?

14:29So to me, that's all about data sovereignty, maybe preventing third parties from kind of mining

14:35or training AI on brokerage intellectual, um, capital without permission. And I know that that

14:43is a huge, um, kind of talking point right now. And so I have to look this up cause I

14:51don't want to

14:51get it wrong, but I think that there's some, Kobe Hanna did a op-ed on the MLS and the

15:01purpose of an

15:02MLS. And his whole premise was that the MLS has never been, it wasn't supposed to be a commercial

15:09endeavor that it really was a, uh, exchange of collaboration with brokers. And it's, it's become

15:17something that it really isn't. And so, you know, the, who owns the data has been a central question to

15:26that right now. And then you have AI coming in and taking that data and training on that data.

15:33And if you don't have the infrastructure in place to, um, to keep that data within your control,

15:42um, then I think that there, there might be consequences to that later. And, and I had a

15:49long discussion with Victor Lund of wave group on this, and he, um, you know, he was really talking

15:57about that importance of building secure gated infrastructure for AI as kind of the next battleground.

16:04And so a lot of these moves that you're seeing are really about that data sovereignty and protecting

16:10the data and who owns the data and where does it go from there? Um, so it's, it's an interesting,

16:18and, you know, there are obviously some consumer aspects to that too, with the Zillow compass. Um,

16:25and I think compass is aligned now with four, I think it's four different MLSs, bright real tracks.

16:32Um, and I can't remember the, the other ones. There's two others who they're now putting national

16:39compass, national listings on their, on their sites. So there's a lot going on and we're actually

16:47working on deciphering all of this and, and figuring out what you really need to know about

16:54where this is going in the industry, because I think this is another huge, it's not necessarily

17:00about private listings. It's really about data sovereignty and what, what to do with those, um,

17:08with that data and how to protect it. Um, and I think AI has kind of pushed it to the

17:14forefront

17:14right now. So I think it'll be a really interesting conversation and we're working on, you know, just

17:20helping leaders decipher what they should understand about it. Um, we've got a couple articles in the

17:27works on that. Uh, and, um, Brooklyn Han, I think we'll be publishing one pretty soon. Um, and then on

17:33the broker consolidation one, she did publish one today that kind of outlines the market share of

17:38some of the bigger brokerage companies post acquisition to see where, where they stand

17:44and explain it from a data perspective. It's incredible. Your team is doing great work. I feel

17:49like, um, literally almost every day we have breaking news on the real estate side. So Tracy,

17:55thanks so much for getting us up to speed. Everybody, you can go find real estate news at

17:59housingmar.com under the latest news tab or the real estate tab. Um, lots of good stuff every day.

18:06And Tracy, we'll have you on again soon. Great. Thanks so much. Thank you.

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