Why homes are selling faster even with more inventory

HousingWire

On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Rachel Bader, vice president of audience and growth, about data signals in different regional housing markets, including days on market, price cut percentage and absorption rates, and why homes are selling faster even with more inventory.   Related to this article:   Inventory is rising as homes sell faster in the 2026 housing market  https://www.housingwire.com/articles/2026-housing-market-homes-selling-faster/  HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXDD_3y3LvU60vac7eki-6Q  More info about HousingWire  https://lnk.bio/housingwire   To learn more about Total Expert visit totalexpert.com   The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.

Transcript

00:08welcome everyone my guest today is Rachel Bader vice president of audience and growth at housing

00:13wire to talk about the market signals she's seeing in our data across different regions

00:18including days on market price cut percentages and absorption rates before we dive in I want

00:24to thank our sponsor total expert for making this episode possible Rachel welcome back to the

00:30podcast thank you so much I'm super excited to be back you know I love having you on you always

00:36do

00:36a deep dive into our housing wire data and you talk a lot about what different markets are seeing

00:42and you write that up every week for us on our data digest newsletter but also I love talking to

00:47you

00:48about it because it's like there's so much happening right now and one of the things I think right now

00:53is that's very interesting is inventory and how the inventory story is sort of saying something

00:58different than like inventory coming onto the market normally does maybe you can start there

01:03yeah for sure um so um it's been interesting spending so much time in our housing wire data

01:13um and and getting to see all these different things play out and right now we're like typically

01:20a traditional story is like we just need more inventory then I feel like right now we're really

01:25in a space where it's becoming less of an inventory story and more of a transaction efficiency story

01:33and so that's kind of the shift that we're experiencing right now okay so what what are we looking at

01:40at

01:40inventory um you know on the national level like what it what signals that shift to you when you look

01:45at the

01:46data yeah so a lot of that shift is that inventory really only matters if the market can absorb it

01:53and so we've really been looking at how inventory is going up year over year but then in addition to

02:02that like really having to uh look at how absorbed listings are also increasing year over year

02:09so inventory up like 2.3 percent nationwide um but the absorbed listings are up 17.5 percent and so

02:19um

02:19and and pendings are up our median list price has gone down a little bit and so this is this

02:27is a

02:27situation where we talked last time about markets are going to need to re recalibrate to people's pricing

02:35realities to affordability realities and and then we can start to see some things move um so we're at

02:4236 percent national price cut average right now um which isn't too far from the norm no I love that

02:51I

02:51think you know when we anytime we dig into these kind of details you realize that like it the housing

02:56market really defies like easy like you know one one metric says it all because if you're like oh home

03:04prices are going down does that mean demand's going down does that mean and and yet really what we're

03:08looking for is like what does this mean for buyers sellers the market as a whole and actually you know

03:13having that increased affordability means we're probably selling more houses yeah for sure and and a

03:19couple of the things there is that pricing realism is really improving transaction efficiency but also

03:26like the buyers never disappeared it's just that their tolerance changed and and so that's why we've been

03:32talking about um where we have to have to go on to the market price to where buyers are are

03:40looking to

03:41transact um and and we've really seen that play out uh regionally differently kind of depending on

03:49on how um early they were to adapt that recalibration strategy well let's talk about some of those regions and

03:57then we're even going to drill down into you know uh specific msas or different cities so let's talk

04:03about the midwest this has been such an interesting market in the last couple years yeah so the midwest

04:08has really just kind of been like steady normalization they've really been a high point

04:14throughout everything you see a lot of different pockets of the midwest uh been transacting pretty well

04:21this whole time um and so they've had a couple of their places that are living their own individual

04:27dramas as we know not everything across each region is as stable but um we've seen moderate absorption

04:34moderate price cuts and consistent days on market there and so um we just never really saw them have the

04:41same level of distortion as other regions did you know um logan you know famously was like at different

04:48points i said you know it's a savagely unhealthy housing market and what you really want is just

04:53kind of normal and boring so that people can like make choices based on what's best for them and it's

04:58not like there's 25 offers on a house and you have to you know forego an inspection in order to

05:03get

05:04it like what you really want is what we're seeing in the midwest right now which is like a more

05:08normal

05:08market between buyers and sellers for sure yeah you definitely have to find that place where

05:14buyer and seller expectations match um i know we've had that kind of other variable with interest rates

05:23um but but we we are seeing um liquidity approving across the board when when you're finding that

05:32balance okay if you're in the northeast very different story right and has been it's just so

05:38tight in some places what did you see in the data this week yes the um the northeast and the

05:45mid-atlantic

05:45were really our early adapters to we're gonna have to recalibrate if we want things to happen

05:51um and so you saw um many of these markets reset their expectations earlier and that's led baltimore

06:01to getting their price cuts down to 36 which again it feels big but is is relatively kind of what

06:09average what we would expect um at 35 days on market there and um and their absorption is at um

06:172.37

06:19and um and and so what we're really seeing over in the in the northeast and the mid-atlantic

06:27is where they recalibrated earlier and they are functioning much more efficiently now where like

06:34some of the other areas are still trying to like find that balance catch up there's a little bit of

06:40drama still playing out for them um but yeah any any of the markets that said okay the affordability

06:49reality is real i'm going to have to meet it um are being are really transacting faster right now

06:57i think that 35 days is is great that's a great indicator of of a pretty good market i mean

07:02you know it's not like gangbusters but it's also not super unhealthy like that gives people enough time

07:08um you know to find a house and it and it shows you that of course some things are going

07:12to go off

07:13you know much faster than that but as a median that's really good agreed yeah okay so what do we

07:19see in the sunbelt you know i'm always interested in that yes so that is where like we we talked

07:26at the

07:27beginning about the regional fragmentation story not really being it's because it moved to just like

07:32the state of texas they're there we are living our own fragmentation story here um and texas

07:42everything's bigger in texas and i think including the discrepancy between our big cities here um

07:47it increasingly just isn't behaving like one housing market um which we've seen right but not like we do

07:56right now um uh houston has done a better job of of getting more aligned with today's affordability

08:05environment um austin is still very much searching for pricing equilibrium um and then uh dallas is kind

08:15of in between the two and so not not on the map just in the pricing world let's let's dive

08:23in a little

08:24austin what is um what are the metrics you're looking at um when you when you come up with that

08:28yeah so austin is just at 1.12 for their absorption rate the higher the absorption rate the better

08:36things are going um and they're still at 44.5 percent average price cuts there um and and and again

08:47that's average of homes cutting prices not how much they're cutting prices right that's good to yeah

08:53when we say it's an it's the percentage of homes that had to take a price cut before they sold

08:57which can mean like people just have unrealistic expectations but if 33 percent's about normal

09:03that's still pretty you know pretty high up there um off of that norm yes for sure um and and

09:12dallas has

09:13a similar absorption rate right now to austin but they are at a less percent uh of price cuts um

09:21not

09:21significantly but by about two percent um difference there so they're kind of in between and and san

09:30antonio also is still just in a space of recalibrating they only have their absorption as one um and and

09:39they're um over 46 percent taking price cuts right now or needing to use price cuts in order to to

09:47move on

09:48the market um and so really i think that um something that as as you're working in those

09:56markets and you're looking to price in this in these markets then the market is definitely

10:01rewarding alignment and not optimism so um i know that that sellers can have some pretty optimistic

10:10pricing um that they want to go on the market with and and that is just not what's moving right

10:15now

10:16i would say um just a shout out to our housing our data because this is the kind of information

10:21that

10:21if you are um in real estate is is so helpful because then you can be very much like hey

10:27here's

10:27the realistic here's what we're seeing and maybe here's where you're not being you know realistic

10:33this is not just a vibes thing you can point to like this is this is where the market's going

10:38this

10:38is how many price cuts we're seeing and this is where you want to be if you want to sell

10:42yeah and and i um i've been in the housing industry for a while um but i was always very

10:51focused on just

10:53my area that i was working and it is such a night and day difference to really expand out and

11:03see what's

11:04happening and what's playing out in regions that aren't just the area you're working my housing

11:10industry knowledge it has expanded greatly and and obviously i'm not going to talk to somebody

11:19selling a house in frisco about what's happening in baltimore right that's not what i mean but um

11:26to say this works it is playing out all across the nation if you go on the market meeting

11:35buyers where they're ready to transact your house is going to sell you're not going to need to do the

11:41dramatic price cuts you're not going to need those days on market the buyers are there we see them

11:47across the whole country playing out in every every market and and some markets are just a little bit

11:53slower to to catch up but um just a very different experience getting to be in this housing wire data

12:00every day i love it no and of course we were in um austin last week with the gathering met

12:06a ton of

12:07people from all over the country but also people in austin and in san antonio and uh my son lives

12:12in

12:12that corridor uh new bronfels between austin and san antonio and you just talk about like everything when

12:17when austin got very you know when things were hard to find there it just pushed out into all those

12:22other areas and so now between austin and san antonio is its own thing too like what's happening there

12:28so fascinating to to dive in i also think that this kind of data is super helpful as people are

12:34trying to figure out like do they want to do like that three-phase marketing do they want to because

12:39one of the things that people want to use that for is like i want to put the a home

12:43on a market

12:43see what the appetite is see if if my pricing is right it's like but you don't always have to

12:48do

12:48that like there there are other signals you can look at so that you can go to market with with

12:53a

12:53great price yeah so i think that also like for sure the three-phase marketing is a real strategy

13:00but also you know taking the the data to your clients and and letting them know like this is

13:07where i think your house is going to sell how many price cuts it's going to need to take and

13:11how many

13:11days depending on on what you want to price and and and so everybody's going on onto the market

13:18with just better management of expectations and less frustrations and less withdrawals and less

13:25relists and it's it's kind of helpful to everybody involved in the transaction absolutely okay well

13:31let's talk about that do we want to call it sunbelt like when you take texas out of it what

13:36do you call

13:37the area that's like i i specifically think about arizona of course new mexico's in there but we don't see

13:42just a ton of transactions in new mexico so i i guess i'm really asking about arizona or other other

13:47places yeah so i would say that arizona and florida are are the two big other areas that we cover

13:54um

13:55starting with florida we really see their secondary markets clearing inventory considerably faster than

14:03their major metros so we're seeing buyers are still finding value in the smaller retirement and

14:11vacation markets um we have port st lucie and punta gorda that are both um like 2.71 and 2

14:21.56 absorption

14:22which is considerably higher than the other places that we've talked about um and then you have

14:29miami which is more of a of a luxury market to um at a 1.62 absorption um but their

14:38price cuts are less

14:39and this is something that i think that is typical of the luxury markets so interesting yeah florida

14:46florida just like texas i mean it's a giant place so you know you can't really just say a blanket

14:50thing

14:51about florida yes just like texas right um so i think that kind of the theme across florida and

14:59arizona is really that their secondary markets are the ones that they're seeing the most uh

15:05transaction velocity um across the sunbelt right now um but arizona has really shown to us what happens

15:15when markets embrace pricing reality and so you see phoenix um at 2.04 absorption uh but they are at

15:26almost 51 percent price cuts wow and so it's really fascinating in in phoenix because you have

15:36a space of of dramatic price cuts but still homes are clearing at a pretty high absorption rate so

15:45that's really like um just real-time recalibration playing out on the market and really showing what

15:54happens when when you can find that balance in in seller and buyer expectations so interesting yeah

16:03we've been watching both of those uh we've been watching phoenix for a while okay what about west

16:07coast of course we always want to get our coastal areas in here yeah um for sure they um in

16:14in

16:15california right probably the biggest difference uh of all of them um of of our bigger states and

16:21um you really see that the high cost markets re are are remaining extremely rate sensitive um but

16:30when you have the aligned pricing we are still moving the inventory there so uh you see 26 percent price

16:39cuts across uh the los angeles kind of metro um with a 1.35 absorption and san francisco um similar

16:48with

16:49just 20.8 price cuts they only have 21 days on market we see it across san francisco all the

16:55time

16:55the demand continues to be there um but even even when you're in the expensive markets then the

17:03transaction activity really only exists when the pricing aligns with the buyer expectations

17:10i think this is so fascinating like we said earlier like there's there's so many different variables to

17:15look at to really see what's happening in that market you know what we see you know logan and i

17:20talk about this all the time whereas like maybe a mainstream media thing will latch onto one part

17:25of this and be like like for instance like the 50 price cut that's a lot of price cuts it

17:30doesn't

17:30mean the market's crashing it just means that like you know i mean you're finding people who

17:35want to buy at a certain level um and especially if you think about you're starting at 33 percent not

17:40zero so it's not like zero to 50 50 percent or it's like the difference between 33 and 50 something

17:46which is which is significant but doesn't mean it's crashing yeah and and and that would be crazy to

17:53say right because they might have 51 percent price cuts but they're over two for absorption and we didn't

18:00see that in in hardly any of the the cities that we were talking about in the other regions where

18:05their price cuts were much closer to what people would consider is a normal rate um but their

18:12absorption isn't as high so so this is is less of a story of is this market crashing and more

18:20of a

18:21story of of um where where's the balance that the transactions can move forward because when you

18:28find it they definitely do can you just give us just a short explanation of absorption rate and like

18:34why you know what we should be looking at there because like when you say one point this or two

18:38but i'm not really sure what to to make of that yeah um probably should have led with that so

18:43apologies

18:44we're a little late in the podcast but um you should really think of of absorption as the market's

18:51ability to process inventory um so we're we're using absorption here in a way to really just describe

18:59um and measure transaction efficiency so kind of similar to where people say um you know we have

19:08two months of inventory um but it's basically how quickly markets are converting listings into sales

19:15relative to the incoming inventory so when when you talk about like um something in the one range in the

19:22two range how should i think about that the absorption ratio is really comparing the number of homes

19:28being absorbed by the market um so that's going into a pending status um for our data and then that's

19:36against the number of new listings that are coming online so a ratio above one means that demand is

19:44absorbing inventory faster than new supply is arriving and then the farther above one the more efficiently

19:51the market is converting listings into transactions interesting okay that's good to know and we will uh

19:59note that going forward because it it is a really interesting way to look at it as a real estate

20:03i

20:03mean you have been um in mortgage you've been in real estate is that and is is absorption rate the

20:08way that you looked at it when you were uh as you're selling or as you're as you're in the

20:13market

20:14it definitely was not um so i'm just gonna have to call myself out on that um but um like

20:24it is now

20:26so we can all grow um but uh i think that you know as as i was talking earlier it's

20:33just been so

20:34different looking at all the data um being able to see the spreads calculate absorption rates see how

20:42things play out um and and just as a caveat to that previous like one is really kind of a

20:50balanced

20:50flow for absorption ratios um and so then like well above one you're going to get into much stronger

20:58liquidity and then if i you know now we're looking at it and and saying like let me look at

21:06at what the

21:06absorption rate is in this area where i want to sell this house um that's really going to help me

21:13um would build out those those different matrixes to bring to my client to say where do you want to

21:20list your home um and and it will help influence that and so i'm just gonna go go rogue here

21:27and say

21:27like i want every industry professional to be able to access that same data that i do um we have

21:36housing wire intelligence now it makes that possible it puts it into these beautiful dashboards

21:41that you can customize it is subscriber only and so um i want to give everybody a discount code um

21:50you can use podcast 20 and it'll take 20 off your first year um as a housing wire subscriber

21:58if you are already a subscriber and you're not using housing wire intelligence all the time then please

22:05please please start exploring it it is it is a game changer i love it and you're the perfect person

22:12to tell us about that rachel as you are um heading up so much of our data initiatives and also

22:17figuring

22:18out the what we want to get out of the data the signals that we want to get out of

22:22there for our

22:23audience so thank you so much for being on as always and walking us through uh the different regions

22:28we will talk again soon yes thanks for having me

22:35um

22:39you

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