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ITL debates whether Houston should ever consider moving its superstar slugger.
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00:00Speaking of trades and the potential of them, whether or whether they will not happen, conversations around them, we're kind
00:07of doing this now with Yordan Alvarez.
00:08Are we not?
00:09Or, I mean, this has kind of been a back-and-forth thing.
00:11And I know, shout-out to Area 45, Patrick Creighton.
00:14It's an asinine conversation.
00:16Man, that's him right there.
00:18That's basically been his take on the idea.
00:20Well, you've heard the promo.
00:21It's playing right now.
00:22Right.
00:22You hear it on the promo.
00:24The idea and the conversation.
00:25One, he says that even the season, like being far gone, is out of touch.
00:31Talk less of trading Yordan Alvarez.
00:34But if you do get to this place where they are no longer really having the opportunity to get back
00:39in the race, which could happen sooner rather than later, unfortunately,
00:42how smart is it, John Lopez, to make Yordan Alvarez a complete non-starter of a conversation?
00:49Well, that's where it gets really, really difficult.
00:53Because we were talking earlier about, you know, with this team, you know, these next two series, seven games in
01:00a row, 13 games in a row altogether, you know,
01:02it's so vital.
01:03But these next seven against division opponents, you know, last week you were three and a half games back, three
01:08games back in the division.
01:09You're like, all right, well, technically you're playing awful baseball, but technically you're not out of the race.
01:14Well, now you're five and a half, and that could be seven and a half or eight and a half.
01:18And, you know, Patrick is not wrong, you know, they have played just the one month and now one month
01:25plus of a season.
01:27And baseball is such that we've seen this team.
01:30We've seen teams.
01:31It's a marathon, not a sprint.
01:32There are ups and downs inevitably in any season.
01:36But one of the things that makes it tough on the idea of this season also is they would need
01:41to kind of steady the ship and then just have a steady upwards trajectory.
01:45And I was on Sports Extra yesterday, and one of the great points that was made, I think it was
01:49by Zach, was the idea of, okay, so they're not going to have no more slip-ups.
01:54My words more than his, right?
01:55Yeah.
01:56But the idea is, okay, from here on out, there's a very narrow path to get back, and that means
02:00they would need to walk it perfectly.
02:01Just about.
02:02No slumps throughout the remaining months of the season as well, because another slump would pretty much put you out
02:07of it, would it not?
02:08Right.
02:08Even if you started on the trajectory that guy would get you back towards contention.
02:11Well, and the question that has been raised here, you know, if we're sort of, if we're not pretending anymore
02:19that the Astros can easily get back into the race, and I get, technically they can get back in.
02:24But to your point, it would have to be almost a perfect run.
02:27And they could even technically get back into the race in, you know, if they're still struggling and behind in
02:35late June into July, right before the trade deadline.
02:37Sure.
02:38Technically, you're right.
02:40We're talking about, are we pretending, though?
02:42Are we pretending?
02:43Because, you know, this is not the same squad that has done some of these things, and very, very few
02:47squads have done this, you know, all together.
02:50I wouldn't say we're pretending, but we are really operating with a level of hope in the way that we
02:54do this.
02:55Right.
02:55A real level of optimism in the way we do it.
02:57And I think that you're advocating in this conversation for, okay, let's take a more realistic or maybe even more
03:03pessimistic look at this in order to balance what we're doing.
03:06And if that's the way you're looking at it, then is it smart to just go, that is entirely off
03:11the table, that being the potential of trading Yordan Alvarez.
03:14And that is where it gets extremely interesting to me, because when you just flat out say, not listening, don't
03:20even call, if you're going to talk about Yordan Alvarez, we don't want it, it's not going to happen.
03:26I'm with you.
03:27I don't want it to happen.
03:28I don't think it should happen.
03:29I think it would, you know, certainly be a complete rebuild.
03:32Gosh, he's been so good.
03:33And he's been so good.
03:34But my question is, are you doing your team a full justice if you don't even listen?
03:41Was it Nightingale?
03:43Yes, Bob Nightingale in one of his later dispatches was kind of talking to some various different, you know, entities
03:53around the league.
03:54And apparently one general manager said that he believes that if Yordan was actually being shopped, that he could return
04:01a Juan Soto-like haul.
04:02And if you'll recall, Juan Soto, when he was traded, honestly, both times that he's been traded, has, you know,
04:09netted a pretty big haul back from those teams, both, rather four of those teams, whether it was the Nationals
04:16or the Padres.
04:17I did look back at these trades, though.
04:19And what is funny to me, though, is the nature of a big trade, right, where you're talking about like
04:24five potential players, actually seven players, the Yankees acquired in the trade with the Padres.
04:30Anyways, how many of those players have, like, have panned out to be high-level players is the question that
04:36you ask, right?
04:36With the Yankees, they received Trent Grisham.
04:43And let's see, let me actually get in a different way of the trade because I had it in a
04:46different form.
04:47But, like, you go back, you go, okay, did this match up with what you wanted and the value that
04:53you would get from the player that you traded?
04:55You know what I mean?
04:56Like, let's look at the Nats trade, right?
04:58So, Juan Soto, Josh Bell, first baseman Josh Bell, go to the Padres in this trade.
05:02Luke Voigt, the first baseman, comes back.
05:05CJ Abrams comes back.
05:06CJ Abrams has been good.
05:07Mackenzie Gore.
05:08Mackenzie Gore is a good pitcher.
05:10Robert Hassel III, James Wood, Harlan Susana.
05:14Right?
05:14Like, does that feel like that's enough on the backside of what we're talking about to be like, all right,
05:19you let go of that caliber of player?
05:22I'm, no, short answer, no.
05:24I'm not even really worried about that.
05:26What I'm talking about is if you can get in a trade that would involve eight players or picks and
05:34you're not listening, are you even doing your job?
05:37Well, no.
05:38Forget the names.
05:39Did they work out?
05:40Did they not work out?
05:41You know, I'm just saying if you're in a position to where you can get eight players or draft picks
05:45and you're saying, oh, no, I'm not even listening, I think you should listen.
05:48But I think that's the idea is like you would be preempting kind of, okay, what are the players that
05:53you're getting back?
05:54What are the chances in a trade like this of this scale that you're getting all of the commensurate value
05:59that you want?
06:00Because ultimately that's the idea is like you are trading in this value that we have right now on a
06:04team where it feels like we can't make the most of it would be the premise of the circumstance.
06:09And you're getting the value for the future, and that's the question with prospects is you bring them in and
06:14are they going to make what you want in the players on the backside that matches the value?
06:19Here's where I am.
06:20What does this team need?
06:22What does this team really, really need?
06:24Right now, pitching.
06:25Pitching in a farm system.
06:27Yeah.
06:28They can get pitching in a farm system.
06:30And I must emphasize yet again, I don't want this.
06:35You know, all I'm saying is to just arbitrarily say, nope, not listening.
06:40I would listen.
06:42Wouldn't you?
06:43I mean, yeah, I would listen in theory.
06:45It wouldn't make me very happy to have to do it.
06:48I mean, at this point, you got to listen.
06:50If you're the GM and somebody coming to you with a real offer, you got to listen, I feel like.
06:57I think you're at that place where you got to listen.
06:59But the idea of, hey, being able to pick out the right prospects and then also being able to develop
07:04them on the other side.
07:05Because the thing that immediately comes up and people have talked about is, do you trust Dana Brown to be
07:09the dude who does the trade?
07:10Funny enough, I think that these are the trades that are, and maybe I'm just absurd saying this.
07:15I think these are the trades that are actually easier just on the idea of you're going to get a
07:19whole bunch of prospects back.
07:20You're going to get big value back because it's going to be impossible for that to happen.
07:24Honestly, if you do it right, unless you're doing a Luka Doncic-like trade where you're doing it in the
07:28middle of the night and not giving anybody a chance to counteroffer.
07:31Just by the nature of putting him up on the block, there will be people competing in the market to
07:36try and acquire him.
07:37The issue is, for me, how strongly do you feel about Dana Brown's ability to identify the talent to be
07:44able to pick the prospects that are ultimately coming back?
07:46Well, I think that's where you lean in more to draft picks.
07:51Because whether it's Dana Brown and you have confidence in him or not, if you get a lot of lower
07:55-level prospects, you still have to evaluate them.
08:00How do you feel about the Astros' ability to develop?
08:02We have not had to talk about this for a very long time, really, how the farm system develops players.
08:07But that would be a large part of this, right?
08:09Because if you're talking about getting a lot of young talent, it becomes incumbent upon you to bring them up
08:14to major league level.
08:15And that is something where I genuinely have questions on how they do.
08:19I would, too.
08:20And I don't think that's wrong.
08:22So you just sit on your hands and keep your Don because you're not sure that you can develop?
08:27And then you've got a bigger problem.
08:27You know, if you're not sure that this is an organization structure and a general manager that can, number one,
08:33identify young talent, and number two, develop it, well, then forget about your Don.
08:39You need to look somewhere else.
08:40You know, if that's what's holding you up, oh, I don't know about if Dana Brown can do it, well,
08:45then don't trade your Don and get a new general manager you have confidence and can do it.
08:49You know?
08:49And it's worth noting that all the smart baseball people that you could think of, at least the ones that
08:54I can think of, right?
08:56We talked about Ken Rosenthal on foul territory.
08:59Bob Nightingale on these very airwaves when he was on Area 45 didn't think that the Astros would be willing
09:04to trade Yoron on Alvarez.
09:05And I understand why that is.
09:07I just, I get where you're coming from, is once you get to that place in this season, which it
09:11feels, unfortunately, like it's more of a once you get to than if you get to.
09:17I don't know.
09:18Yeah, you do have to start looking at trading.
09:20I wonder, though, if it isn't more reasonable to look at other guys to trade, like Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes,
09:25like one of those guys where they're not the foundation of what you're on.
09:29I mean, Alvarez is the foundation of your offense.
09:31He is a dude that is, hell, I've done this before, I'll do it again, right?
09:36He's Bonds-esque.
09:37He's a dude who scares other teams.
09:39Like, Christian Walker has been really good this year.
09:42He ain't the type of scary guy, and it's not easy to find those.
09:46And so, I'm hesitant because of that nature, like that level of appeal.
09:50Christian Walker can bring you back things, you know, prospects back, especially with him playing well, that would still allow
09:56you to have that monster in your lineup.
09:58That's the portion of this that I don't know how to properly quantify because it ain't just, hey, you're getting
10:03the crazy haul, which matters, but you're losing that level of effect, and I don't know that you can guarantee
10:07you get that bet.
10:08It is funny, though, because let's say, just to use your example, Christian Walker, you're not going to get nearly
10:13as much in return.
10:14Correct.
10:15So, what does that really accomplish, you know, for your future and your present?
10:19You know, because Jordan would still be on this team, Altibe would still be on this team, and you're shipping
10:24off Christian Walker for maybe a couple of prospects here or there.
10:28That ain't helping.
10:29That's not helping them.
10:31Who would you be more willing to trade, Jeremy Pena or Jordan Alvarez?
10:35Jeremy Pena.
10:37Yeah.
10:38Wouldn't you?
10:39Yeah, I think so.
10:40And that sounds insane because, again, Jeremy Pena has really developed incredibly well.
10:43He had an AL MVP for you, right?
10:45Or was it World Series MVP?
10:47Yeah, both.
10:48That's right.
10:49Remember that?
10:51That's a great point.
10:52As a rookie.
10:53Yeah.
10:53And even still, like, I go, yeah, and I understand the injury concerns are one that you also have to
10:59consider in all of this.
11:01It just, it feels weird to let go of that level of just behemoth in your lineup.
11:05And I start to get uncomfortable when I go, can I do two other pieces elsewhere and then maintain Jordan
11:12Alvarez with the hopes that you get?
11:14Because I feel like, again, it's going to be easier, easier, not necessarily easy flat out, to have another Jeremy
11:21Pena than it is to get another Jordan.
11:23Oh, for sure.
11:23You know what I mean?
11:24Yeah, for sure.
11:25It's a quandary.
11:27It's a quandary that they're in because you don't want to stand pat, especially as you get into July and
11:33you're just not making any ground up, presuming that's going to be the case.
11:36But if you get there and you start trading some of these pieces, then you're sending a message to the
11:42guys that you really are counting on, like Jordan and others, and you're almost like caught in between.
11:48You'll be worse in the short term than if you try to trade a couple of big pieces or a
11:54big piece and get a big return and you know what you're doing, you're rebuilding.
11:57Now, ultimately, none of this is going to happen in the immediate term.
12:00Like, we've talked about this week of games between the four games versus Seattle, the three games versus the Rangers.
12:05All of that, even still, if it goes as bad as humanly possible, the trade isn't happening now, right?
12:11It's still because so few teams are ready to make those decisions this early in the season.
12:17It's kind of indicative of how bad your start of the season has been that we're even having any of
12:22these thought processes at this point.
12:24It's sad.
12:24But it feels like you're going to have to let this play out.
12:27So the way that they continue to play will give us some more, at least more information.
12:31I don't think it'll definitively answer this by any means.
12:34This is a big decision for a team to have to make, but it would give you some more insight
12:38into what the right decision is to make here or what feels a little bit better to make.
12:42As of right now, I think the conversation right now feels bad, but we're setting up for, because you can
12:47see it down the road.
12:47You can see if they're not able to fix the pitching with duct tape and spit, then they're not going
12:54to be able to get there.
12:55It feels like duct tape and spit is a hard thing to put your hope in.
12:59It definitely is that.
13:00And it actually does speak to your point on these next seven games.
13:03It's not the most important.
13:05It's way too early to say, oh, this is the most important.
13:06The most important week of the season.
13:09Must win.
13:09But boy, it's going to tell you a lot.
13:11It's going to tell you a lot about the direction you're headed and the direction you probably want to go
13:14to once you get into July.
13:16You could put yourself in a hell of a hole.
13:18You could be in a hell of a hole.
13:19You could put yourself in a hole.
13:20Or right back into it and everybody's like, hey, see there?
13:22Two and a half games out.
13:23I would love that.
13:25Also because, you know, I'm a hope merchant at times.
13:27Yes.
13:28If they get out here, win two or three games versus the Mariners, win two games versus the Rangers, that
13:34does so much.
13:34All of a sudden, you're like, okay, see there?
13:37We'll see.
13:38We'll see.
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