- 13 hours ago
ITL debates whether Houston is relying on too many “what ifs” this season.
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00:00This Texans team, right, this Texas team that we feel pretty good about the way this thing has come together,
00:05I think,
00:07and the approach that they've had, that was the big thing that was fun to see in a lot of
00:12the offseason-type circumstances
00:13is as it fully unfurled, once we got over our anxieties about whether or not they would do the things
00:19that we felt they would need to do,
00:22it was kind of widely respected by the football folks of America going like,
00:25Oh, I kind of like the way the Texans handled this.
00:27Kind of hard not to, right?
00:29I think so.
00:29I think so.
00:30However, let's take a step back and make sure that we're not just partaking in the hopium,
00:37sipping on the Kool-Aid, so to say.
00:39Are they crossing their fingers too much is the question?
00:42Because we've definitely seen this Texas team in recent history be in places where they were banking on too many
00:47things swinging their way,
00:49and they saw the downsides of it at times.
00:51Are they in that place again at all?
00:53Well, you hear this thing, you make your luck.
00:56Good teams get lucky.
00:58Strong degree?
00:59Choose your favorite cliche, and as I often say, cliches are there because they're often true.
01:04I do think good teams get good bounces, so to speak.
01:09But there is still an element of luck that just happens.
01:15And so I started thinking about this.
01:17Actually, you know what made me start thinking about this was the whole schedule thing?
01:22Because, you know, we're talking about the schedule, the release is Thursday, international games tomorrow.
01:28They're not being played tomorrow.
01:30Will be announced tomorrow.
01:31All the international games tomorrow.
01:32You better be ready.
01:33Let's go.
01:33Six games in the middle of May.
01:38And I started thinking, okay, well, hopefully they don't play Green Bay and Green Bay in December, you know,
01:44and Eagles, you know, in a windy, you know, early December or late November.
01:48That's a great point because they do have all the potential of their schedule.
01:51Commanders.
01:52Yep.
01:53Browns.
01:53Yeah.
01:54Eagles.
01:55All on the road.
01:55Packers.
01:56Yeah.
01:56All on the road.
01:58So that's kind of how I said, well, they kind of got it.
02:00Don't worry about it.
02:01They won in Pittsburgh in the playoffs.
02:02They weren't in Kansas City week 14.
02:04Those things are dead and gone.
02:05I think they play Pittsburgh on the road, too.
02:06Don't worry about it.
02:07That's five right there.
02:08They've done it.
02:09They're capable of doing it, and you don't have to worry about cold weather ever again.
02:12So in thinking about.
02:13Kaimi is good.
02:14Well, you're going to hear Kaimi again.
02:17Because I started thinking, well, they kind of got to get lucky, you know, on the schedule, you know,
02:21when it comes out.
02:22And that's one of the things we'll be talking about.
02:24But that got me thinking about other things.
02:25Like, are we sort of fingers crossed a little bit on.
02:29Well, let me go down the list.
02:30Let's do it.
02:32Injuries.
02:34The obvious one.
02:35They were really healthy last year.
02:38Defensively.
02:39Defensively is really the big one.
02:40Offensively, you had your instance.
02:42And even the places where you weren't like.
02:44Jalen Petrie missed a couple games with a concussion.
02:47Aziz Alshire missed a game.
02:48Yeah.
02:49But that one fell.
02:49And we saw the difference, right?
02:51Versus the Raiders in what that was.
02:53Yeah.
02:53Their starters were really healthy.
02:56And the one place that you could nag at this team or pick nits if you chose to do so
03:01is depth.
03:02That would show up a little bit different.
03:04I think that they've tried to do a good job of having the places where they could, you know, make
03:08that work.
03:08But it's the car crash sport.
03:09That's a great point that they've dealt with.
03:11They haven't rather dealt with injuries.
03:12Now, you're just talking about the defense?
03:14The defense in particular, they were incredibly healthy.
03:18Okay.
03:18And I guess they're kind of counting on being incredibly healthy again.
03:22But you mentioned, you know, the car crash sport.
03:25And, boy, I hope so.
03:27You know, obviously we all hope so.
03:30But that's the obvious one.
03:31How do you feel depth-wise, though?
03:32I mean, and we've talked a little bit about this.
03:35But the number of games missed was fairly minimal.
03:39I think that they have the kind of depth that I feel good about in short spans.
03:43I don't know if they have the kind of depth that I feel good about if they have to go
03:47through a third of a season with one of these guys having to step into a space.
03:51Well, and in particular injuries as well.
03:54You know, and we're all knocking on wood like crazy here.
03:56But, you know, they have been so lucky defensively.
04:00I don't know if it's asking a lot.
04:02But you do have to get lucky again on the injuries, you know?
04:05I think that this is one where I'm willing to go, yeah, that's football.
04:08Yeah, okay.
04:09You know what I mean?
04:10I feel like you get to a place where we're talking about major injuries to one of your major players.
04:15That's the nature of football.
04:16And they have, again, I said, I feel like they have the type of depth that I feel okay with
04:20if they have to go a game, maybe two.
04:21If they have to go thirds of the season, then I'm in a different place.
04:25But I feel like any football team in America is in that place as well.
04:28So I don't feel as concerned about that.
04:31I'm confident still.
04:32Okay, let me ask you about this one.
04:33Okay.
04:34Turnovers.
04:36This is a team that with their talent, with their greatness, you know, individually, especially the cornerback position, safety, you
04:44could throw that in there.
04:45Pass rush.
04:47You've got to figure they're going to create a lot of turnovers.
04:49But turnovers are very weird in the NFL.
04:52From year to year to year, turnovers, even great defenses can maybe not have as many turnovers as they did
04:59the year before.
05:00I mean, are you kind of like, hey, fingers crossed.
05:02It keeps up.
05:03Well, can I answer your question with a question?
05:06Mm-hmm.
05:09You know, I'm interested in seeing what kind of gambler you are, right?
05:13Because there are certain gamblers that go, hey, I've hit a couple of times.
05:18That means I'm hot.
05:19Mm-hmm.
05:19Or there are certain gamblers that go, I've hit a couple of times, and that means I'm due.
05:22And so let me get the hell out of here.
05:23I am not the second guy.
05:24Okay, so if that's the case, right, and I love that for you, because I am very much the second
05:28guy.
05:29I am a scary gambler if I am ever a gambler.
05:31Ooh, I've made $800.
05:32I wonder if I can double it.
05:33Yeah, right.
05:34And I think that that's where we are, because remember, we were having this conversation last offseason,
05:38and that was a question I had with my anxiety type of things popping up, going, you know,
05:43turnovers tend not to be sticky.
05:46They're viral.
05:48Yes, that's a great way of putting it, right?
05:50And then they went and they turned the ball over a decent amount.
05:52Not exactly in the same way, but they turned it over in a decent amount.
05:56And so I think that if you are somebody that maybe leans into the, hey, there's maybe more of a
06:00trend here,
06:01and this is more causal as opposed to flighty, then I think that you feel good.
06:06Not only that, I think the way that they generate turnovers matters, right?
06:10This is not just a whole bunch of interceptions where the ball is thrown in bad places.
06:14Right.
06:14This is strip sacks.
06:15Pass rush.
06:16This is pass rush, you know, forcing quarterbacks to speed up.
06:19This is fumble recoveries.
06:21I think that these are the types of turnovers that feel a little bit more sustainable,
06:24especially when you look at the style of play that they have.
06:26I totally agree.
06:26And that's why I feel pretty good about this one, just because they're going to cause a lot of pressure.
06:31They're going to bring a lot of pressure.
06:32They're going to cause a lot of turnovers.
06:33They're going to be able to pick the ball.
06:35Their ball skills, you know, with Derek Stingley in particular are going to be causing turnovers.
06:40But the ball still is oblong, you know.
06:43It's still an oblong ball.
06:45Let me ask you about this one.
06:46Before we move on, what would the step down in turnovers have to be for this to be the thing
06:51that scares you?
06:51Because, again, they were...
06:52Where were they?
06:53What did they end up with?
06:5319?
06:5419, which was third best when it came to turnovers.
06:57Or takeaways, I guess is the way that I should say.
06:59To make sure that we differentiate between offensive turnovers and defensive takeaways.
07:03I mean, the way the game played out, the season played out, five fewer would be a big drop.
07:09Because of how tight the games were with the way that they played.
07:13Which leads to my next one, winning close games.
07:16Winning close games, again, kind of points to the oblong ball.
07:21You know, the Bills game in particular, that crazy play they made, the hook and ladder and all that.
07:26But they ended up, they made a play at the end.
07:28The play goes the other way.
07:29Things change.
07:30And, you know, winning these close games are the kind of, hey, we'll do it.
07:34You know, our defense is great.
07:35Or is that something that can be a little bit viral, to use that word again?
07:39Maybe.
07:39In theory, they are building a team that, if it goes the way that it should,
07:43that they should be more immune to these things.
07:45Because the idea is, if you have a small lead at the end of the game,
07:49what is the thing that a football coach wants to do?
07:51I think Bill Cowher was talking about this.
07:53I think I saw a video of him talking about this recently.
07:55Where he was, he had a really great record in one score games.
07:58Because once, or like games in which they had an 11 point lead.
08:01Because he shut this bleep down.
08:03He's like, we are just running the damn ball.
08:07They seem to be built to try and do that.
08:09And the thing about it is, I do think that they cross their fingers a lot on this.
08:12Now, if they can score more points, I think if they're capable of it, they will.
08:15Because, I mean, who in their right mind does not just go, let's go score.
08:18Right.
08:18But I think that they, the way that they talk about, oh man, one score games,
08:23you just got to be in it at the end.
08:24The mentality that they bring to this has always been uncomfortable to me.
08:27That's a big ask.
08:27It's always been scary for me.
08:29They play so many.
08:30Well, here's the other part of that.
08:31You're not always protecting a small lead.
08:34Sometimes you need to go get it.
08:35You have a small deficit or larger than a small deficit.
08:40And that points to, you know, the offense is a big factor here.
08:43Yeah.
08:43Yes.
08:44And this is the thing, one of the things that still remain to be seen.
08:47This is one of the things I'm really interested about once we get an opportunity to see this
08:50team is how explosive can they be?
08:53Because that was the thing that we wrote off last year entirely.
08:55They just could not be explosive.
08:57And I think that this is less about their style of play than we wanted to give it credit for.
09:01Or maybe we did get to that point.
09:02It was a long season.
09:03We talked about a lot of stuff.
09:05But there's ways for you to be a running team and explosive.
09:08There's ways for you to be a team that is fairly conservative and still explosive.
09:12This was just not a team that was capable of being explosive.
09:15Can they find those in here?
09:16Because that's what would be necessary for you to go and get it out the mud in times.
09:19You know your defense can go get you the ball back.
09:21In fact, there was a number of games where they did it multiple times late in games because
09:24your offense could not capitalize on those instances.
09:27So you know your defense is the type of team defense that even if it's just freeing out,
09:31the ball is coming back to you after 45 seconds or something, right?
09:35Right.
09:35That is still a capability that I think this defense has.
09:38The big question is, can this offense go explosively down the field and capitalize?
09:42Here's another one that ties in with that.
09:45Field goals.
09:47They love them some field goals.
09:51Kaimi Fairbairn has been awesome.
09:54Every kicker ever has had those days.
09:57You know, has had those days, those seasons, I should say, where it just kind of starts
10:03to go the other direction.
10:04Yeah.
10:05That's, yes.
10:06This is one of the places where the cross your fingers absolutely feels like that.
10:12Exactly that.
10:12Like you're going to need the luck because I think we all agree.
10:15Kaimi Fairbairn is a good kicker in this league.
10:17Yes, he is.
10:17As reflected by the amount of money that he made.
10:19Now, shout out to Chris Boswell going up in that number again.
10:21But, yeah, he's making big money here.
10:24We've seen it.
10:25We've seen it in the NFL where guys just kind of lose it.
10:28And it is very much of the positions in the National Football League that are prone
10:32to the yips.
10:33Yeah.
10:34It's up there, baby.
10:34And once they start, it tends to compound itself.
10:38Right.
10:39Snowball.
10:39And you needed him a lot this year.
10:41And we're still not certain that.
10:43We feel good about the possibility of, hey, does David Montgomery mean that you're able
10:47to punch it in?
10:47Does the, you know, more hefty looking offensive line mean that you're able to punch it in the
10:51red zone?
10:52Sure hope so.
10:53Does, you know, another year of Jaden Higgins and possibly a Merlin Kline, do those guys
10:57help you score in the red zone?
11:01I sure hope so.
11:01But none of those are givens in my mind.
11:03Yeah.
11:03And so, the only given that you have had when it comes to red zone is we can get three
11:07out
11:08of this.
11:08You got to hope that that remains the case and you're not having to go and find on the,
11:12you know, on the fly a kicker.
11:14Because that's the real thing is if you end up, sorry to use, so-and-so's intro tryout
11:18or a workout.
11:19And now you're having to cobble together flyers of kickers for the remainder of the season
11:23because Kaimi is, you know, in a headspace knock on wood, right?
11:26I would hate for that to happen.
11:27So, no, that's very much fair as a, you know, crossing your fingers moment that they're
11:32doing a lot of it.
11:32Well, let me ask you a couple more here.
11:34If you feel like this is a crossing your fingers a bit too much, David Montgomery being able
11:40to dial it back up, being the bell cow.
11:42It's fair to acknowledge this here.
11:44I think that this one I feel pretty comfortable about because of the circumstances, but there's
11:48not, you don't just have to stop with David Montgomery.
11:50There's David Montgomery.
11:51There's Wyatt Teller.
11:51There's Braden Smith.
11:52All these dudes have shown slight declines in their play in the remaining years.
11:57And you went and got them all at pretty reasonable cost.
12:00Some of them in free agency, one of those in a trade circumstance.
12:03Yeah.
12:04But there is a question of, okay, does this rev back as high as we once saw?
12:08Or is the, is whatever decline we saw, not just the circumstances that we saw, but is
12:12this something that is telling of those players?
12:14I hate to invoke it this way because I don't think it fits quite the same way, but there's
12:18Shaq Mason possibilities, right?
12:19That you've seen a dude who is very much a good player, but might just not be in the
12:23same player that he once was.
12:25And so, no, those are things that are fair to acknowledge.
12:27I feel better about it though, because I do think that circumstances, at the very least
12:30in what you mentioned, David Montgomery, that felt so much more about Jameer Gibbs and where
12:35he was going as opposed to David Montgomery and what he was doing.
12:37And again, a lot of these I feel really good about, and most notably turnovers, you know,
12:42I don't know about injuries, you know, who knows, the winning the close games.
12:46I feel like they can, they can close out a lot of games, but again.
12:49Close games in Kaimi are the ones where you really get me on the, okay, we're doing a lot
12:52of hoping here.
12:53Yeah, well, I got two more for you.
12:55Oh, wow.
12:55Nick Caley's play calling.
12:57That's, yep.
12:58Fingers crossed.
12:59Yep.
13:00Fingers crossed.
13:00Yep.
13:01And here's the thing is, I would love to go, this was just his first year.
13:05Think about, of late, how often we are able to tell real quickly that an offensive play
13:11caller in the modern NFL is good.
13:13It's happening a lot more lately than you see a dude and you're like, oh, I think he's pretty
13:16good at this.
13:17Even if they're not fully formed.
13:18Like, you don't have to be Clint Kubiak to, but there's, there's guys that you go, oh,
13:23I feel really good about this.
13:25Was there a time last year where you went, I feel really good about this?
13:28No.
13:29And I wonder how much of that now here we have this under a microscope.
13:32We're watching Nick Haley intently, whereas the other teams, we're not watching in that
13:36same way.
13:37Maybe in other places, there's been this feeling, but it hadn't felt like this.
13:40Right.
13:40It feels like more often than not, if a dude's good at this, to some level, you have a pretty
13:45good idea of that early on.
13:46Yeah.
13:47And I didn't have that.
13:47So there's a fair, there's a fair possibility that you get to Nick Haley year two and we
13:51go, oh, there's not the improvement that we were thinking about that would happen.
13:55Last one, and it's a big one, so we'll obviously dig in on this in various ways as we move
14:00toward
14:00the season and into the season.
14:02But CJ Stroud being a good soldier for 18 weeks.
14:07Are your fingers crossed on that or you think he'll do it?
14:10What a punch in the gut.
14:12What a punch in the gut.
14:13You're a real jerk for this one, man.
14:14I'm not a jerk.
14:15No, you're not.
14:16You're not.
14:17I would like to hope yes.
14:20I'm kind of crossing my fingers on that one.
14:21The capability of the dude is there.
14:23Yeah.
14:23We've seen it.
14:24We know it.
14:25You cannot deny.
14:26But the capability of him, you know, sort of souring is there too.
14:29And that's the thing, because last year really did a dude.
14:32If we did not have the final two games, the playoff games, and we're just going off the
14:35regular season, I'd go, yeah.
14:37Because he still played really good football last year.
14:40But it's soured by the fact, and I'm not just doing the soured by the fact that the actual
14:43numbers were the way that they were in those games.
14:45Yeah.
14:45But the idea that it looked very much like it just fell off a cliff and it happened in
14:49some ways between the ears.
14:51Yeah.
14:51I don't know.
14:52I don't know what to make of that.
14:53I don't know that I can say that CJ Stroud won't end up in a place that whatever was
14:57happening that ultimately took him to a place where he's turning the ball over to that
15:00place where he's kind of taking things into his own hands in some instances where it feels
15:03like he should.
15:03Now, of course, the second game was maybe even more so about the fact that you just couldn't
15:07run the football, you couldn't get a lot of these things done.
15:10The targets were not there to be able to connect on the other end of some of these things,
15:14right?
15:14Those things did factor into the New England game.
15:17But yeah, man, that is very much one of the things that you're holding, that you're
15:21crossing your fingers on.
15:22I would say, though, they seem to be doing a little bit less of crossing their fingers
15:26on because, again...
15:26No, they're planning on a lot of things and they're doing all the steps that they feel
15:29necessary to get it done.
15:30But there is some luck involved in a lot of this.
15:32No, that's fair.
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