00:00Steve, welcome. President Trump saying the United States military will guide stranded ships.
00:06If you were back in the military, what might that look like?
00:12I think it would look like a very risky operation, Jamie, and thanks for the invitation.
00:18The idea of taking vessels through the Strait Formos, which is just 20 miles wide,
00:25whilst being under attack potentially by Iranian forces, about which it's very difficult to do anything about,
00:31is pretty difficult, frankly, so I'd be surprised if the Americans actually commit to it.
00:36Because if it were me, the first thing I'd say to my commander is that we really have to do
00:41this.
00:41And the second thing I'd say, well, we are going to take losses.
00:44So it's a fairly stark and difficult thing to do.
00:47Presumably, Mr. Trump is surrounded by very senior military people advising him on what to do next.
00:54I mean, given your naval background, from a military perspective, where does this go next?
01:01From a military perspective, it's very difficult to see any solution for the United States or Israel, Jamie.
01:09The problem is that there are no significant land forces in the campaign,
01:13and you need overwhelming land forces, and we're talking about millions, Jamie,
01:17not tens of thousands, which is what we've got in the theatre at the moment.
01:22So it's very difficult to see that we've got anything other than the stalemate,
01:26and the stalemate with the Straits Formos closed will lead to increasing pain in the United States,
01:32but even more so in the Far East and in Europe, who are really suffering, already are suffering.
01:37So I can see no obvious answer other than perhaps the Europeans to actually start talking to the Iranians
01:44and the Far East countries starting to talk to the Iranians and arrange their own transits through the Straits.
01:50The United States should outgun Iran by every military measure, surely.
01:56Why is that not happening?
01:59Well, they may outgun the Iranians in simple military terms,
02:04but what we've got is a very small place of water where it's very difficult to operate warships,
02:10and the worst thing for a warship is to be very, very close to the land,
02:14which is exactly what you'll be doing through the Straits Formos.
02:17And the reason is you have very little time for the attacks that can be mounted against you to respond
02:22to those attacks.
02:24So, you know, you can have fast boat attack attacks,
02:28but much more importantly, Jamie, are the drones,
02:31but also the hypersonic and ballistic missiles, which is extremely difficult to protect warships against.
02:37So it's an area where we've got very little serum,
02:39and it sort of reminds me of the Gallipoli campaign,
02:43where the British and the French and others took significant losses
02:47trying to force the Straits of Gallipoli and failed against the Turkish.
02:52Steve, I'm sure we'll talk again in the coming weeks,
02:55but for the moment, thank you.
02:56Steve Jeremy, the retired British Commodore.
02:58We'll see you next time.
02:58So thank you.
02:58So thank you.
02:58By the end.
02:58Bye-bye.
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