00:00Now, Ali Renison is a former UK Trade Department official.
00:03She is now at consultancy SEC Newgate.
00:07Ali, thanks so much for joining us.
00:08Before we go into the China-Africa deal,
00:11I have to ask you about the breaking news around Donald Trump.
00:14We are just hearing in the last half an hour
00:16that he's decided to slap 25% on EU vehicles.
00:21What does this mean and what do you think is going on here?
00:25Well, I think, as with many of President Trump's social media posts,
00:28we have to wait to see what is actually followed up with
00:31in terms of proposals coming from the U.S. government,
00:34from the U.S. Trade Representative's Office,
00:36about exactly what that means.
00:37Now, I think there's a couple of different things going on here.
00:40Trump does have a long-standing gripe about the trade imbalance,
00:44particularly in cars.
00:45Previously, the EU's average tariff for cars and auto vehicles
00:50going into the European market is about 10%.
00:51The U.S. is about 2%.
00:53And I think President Trump has talked about the fact
00:55that we'd like to see more sort of brand-name American trucks
00:58being driven on German streets,
01:00in addition to the luxury vehicles from Germany
01:02that get driven on American sort of highways.
01:04So there is a long-standing gripe,
01:06but I think that, as was alluded to before,
01:08there's also some frustration on a two-fold front
01:10from the Trump administration with the EU.
01:12One is obviously that, in terms of the complation
01:15with foreign policy, they're being quite slow
01:17to sort of support his sort of offensive strife,
01:19particularly countries like Spain,
01:21taking a very hard line.
01:22But I think also that there have been some question marks
01:25about what the U.S. and the EU agreed to
01:27as a sort of provisional trade outline framework
01:30a couple of months ago.
01:31It's been very slow getting through the EU sort of channels.
01:34So I think that this is meant to sort of put pressure
01:36on a few different fronts.
01:38Yeah, and as you say,
01:39while we've seen the euro car stocks
01:41already reacting, dropping quite sharply,
01:43we've got to see how this actually pans out.
01:46Ali, let's talk more about the zero-tariff deal
01:49for all by one African country from China.
01:55How much is going to really benefit?
01:57Which countries, which products do you see real benefit for?
02:02I think, you know, it depends on what the sort of tariff treatment
02:06of some of these products was to begin with,
02:07because obviously those that were facing
02:09sort of steep tariffs already,
02:11if you see them looking at sort of, for example,
02:14tea coming from South Africa,
02:17fresh produce, fruits and vegetables
02:19coming from other parts of the continent going into China,
02:21those had fairly high agricultural tariffs,
02:24and particularly the ones that weren't included
02:26in sort of what we call provisions
02:27around least developed countries
02:28that already have fairly generous provisions
02:30unilaterally from China,
02:31and also those countries who were already part
02:34of the China-Africa agreement,
02:36there's about 20 of them,
02:37they're not going to see a huge change.
02:38But those that weren't party
02:39to those sort of liberalized tariff provisions
02:42definitely will see some change
02:43in this sort of processed and raw sort of agricultural commodities market.
02:47I think it's a bigger question about,
02:49sort of outside of that, what are the huge changes?
02:51I think we're looking at critical minerals
02:53is an interesting area that China is definitely interested
02:56in sort of increasing the flow,
02:58the two-way flow on critical minerals
03:00and making sure that it has access to Africa's market.
03:03So it's a real sort of statement of intent in a few areas,
03:05and it contrasts sharply, obviously,
03:07with the direction of travel from the U.S.
03:09And, of course, it's not just tea and apples,
03:12as Michael's piece explained.
03:14Also, South Africa, for example,
03:15produces a lot of cars for export.
03:19Do you see this as an opportunity
03:21to attract investors and actually get real growth going,
03:25not just the export of raw materials and commodities?
03:29Exactly, and I think that that's what
03:31some of these trade provisions,
03:32and keep in mind it is predominantly a unilateral measure
03:35that China has extended to African countries,
03:38but I think what we're waiting to see
03:40is sort of the opportunity around,
03:41does this really help consolidate
03:43trade and investment ties more widely?
03:45For example, bringing in perhaps some of the know-how
03:48to sort of help build with some of the infrastructure
03:51and sort of industries of the future in Africa,
03:54including in, for example, in the automotive market.
03:56I think that what both sides are hoping to see
03:58is this consolidation of ties
04:00that gives it sort of investors more confidence
04:02to say that this is a relationship
04:04that is only growing from strength to strength.
04:06All right, thank you so much.
04:08That's Ali Renison,
04:09former UK Trade Department official,
04:11now a consultant at SEC Newgate.
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