- 11 hours ago
Tune in to the 2026 Kentucky Derby edition of the TDN Writers' Room. The crew takes a deep dive into the full field and NBC racing analyst joins in to take a wider look at the Derby, plus Saturday's undercard and Friday's Kentucky Oaks.
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00:00:18Welcome to a Kentucky Derby edition of the TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland.
00:00:23My name is Bill Finley. I'm a correspondent for the Thoroughbred Daily News. And please
00:00:27tune us in. Myself and Dave Johnson from 10 to 2 on Sirius XM Channel 85 for our Derby Preview
00:00:33this
00:00:33Saturday. My name is Randy Moss. I work with this guy on top of me here. I work with NBC
00:00:41Sports.
00:00:42We are here in a trailer in the compound at Churchill Downs in what we hoped wouldn't be a
00:00:49high traffic area, but we're already seeing all kinds of people come walking through. So please
00:00:54don't be distracted. Zoe Cameron with First TV and First Racing. Looks like I've got a Hall of
00:00:59Famer right on top of me as Jerry Bailey is right above me in more ways than one. Hey, Jerry,
00:01:05how you
00:01:06doing? Good, Zoe. Bill, Randy. See, on my screen, Randy, you're above me. But by the way, that's not
00:01:12the first time he gives me the finger. It's usually another finger. So we're going to do things a little
00:01:19bit differently this week. We're going to start our first segment with the Gainesway Guests of the
00:01:23Week. And it's none other than Hall of Famer Jerry Bailey, who, of course, will be on the NBC
00:01:27broadcast with our very own Randy Moss on both Friday and Saturday. And what a treat to have
00:01:33Jerry on. He's won a couple of Kentucky Derbies. And of course, his knowledge is as good, if not
00:01:38better than anyone in the game. So we're going to get into everybody's picks in a little bit.
00:01:44We'll get a pick from Jerry. But first, a couple of just general Derby and Oaks topics to talk about
00:01:48where we're fortunate enough to have the Hall of Famer Jerry Bailey with us. And right now,
00:01:54one of the storylines, I think, going into the Derby is who's going to be the favorite.
00:01:58Renegade was made the favorite, but I assume that line came out before the draw. Now he's
00:02:04drawn the dreaded one post. And by the way, if you think that Randy goes down rabbit holes,
00:02:09well, you ought to read T.D. Thornton's story about the history of the one hole in the Derby
00:02:14in Monday's TDN. But anybody want to speculate whether or not he'll still be the favorite?
00:02:20Go ahead, Gainesway, Guest of the Week.
00:02:22So I don't know why that would change it. I mean, I know all the opinion, the one hole's terrible.
00:02:29If he were drawn 16 or 17 or 18, where would Irat Ortiz want to be by the time he
00:02:35goes by the wire the
00:02:36first time? Closer to the rail, so he doesn't get hung out on the first turn. He's starting from there.
00:02:41And to me, either Flavian Pratt or Irat Ortiz are the best in-race decision makers that we have in
00:02:48the game today. And he's going to figure this out. He's going to put him somewhere in the middle to
00:02:54back, and he'll be one or two wide in the first turn. And then the race will dictate what he
00:02:59can
00:02:59do after that. But I think it should not be a negative for him being in number one hole.
00:03:05And I believe Nick did have the option of tweaking the line after the draw and changing it if need
00:03:11be. Mike Pettaglia used to do it all the time. So, Zoe, what do you think?
00:03:15I don't think it's going to be terrible. Now, if it was the old starting gate, maybe because the rail
00:03:21comes out to meet you. But where it's set now, you have a straight run towards the rail. And the
00:03:28problem is that horses tend to break into the space between them. And there's quite a bit of space
00:03:33between the one hole and the rail. And the horses to the outside are probably going to break in as
00:03:37well. So, you still have that chance of getting stuck where you don't want to be stuck. Now,
00:03:43Irat has ridden the Derby numerous times, has ridden from the one hole numerous times as well.
00:03:48So, hopefully, he can figure out a trip. I mean, the horse has got some gas. He doesn't have to
00:03:53be
00:03:53dead last. He'll figure it out. I don't think it should be too much of a hindrance.
00:03:58And I apologize. I'm a big fan of TDN, obviously, but I was traveling on Monday to Churchill Downs
00:04:03and didn't get a chance to read TD Thornton. So, I don't know what he came up with necessarily.
00:04:09Since Ferdinand won in 1986, no horses won out of the one hole, the average odds of horses breaking
00:04:17from post one is 30 to one, including Ferdinand and since Ferdinand. So, percentage-wise,
00:04:24they're not really that far behind. The average odds ranking of horses breaking from the number
00:04:29one post is 11. 11th favorite on average. Their average finish position is 10. So, they're really
00:04:37running according to what the odds say they should run. It's not like the one hole has been this
00:04:43horrific disadvantage. Yes, you can get in more trouble from the one hole, but you also save more
00:04:50ground from the one hole. Correct. So, it tends to be a wash, in my opinion.
00:04:56It's not that I disagree with you guys. Go ahead, Jerry.
00:04:59One thing people might not realize. The worst thing that can happen at the start of the Kentucky Derby is
00:05:04that you get sandwiched between horses because then you get squeezed out the back and you might
00:05:08lose two, three, you might lose five lengths immediately. At least in the one hole, if the horse
00:05:13outside you breaks into you, you have space to recover and go forward and not lose as much of a
00:05:19position as you would if you were getting squeezed behind, I mean, between two horses.
00:05:24I'm not disagreeing with any of you, but I still think there's a question of whether or not the
00:05:28betters might, if you guys would say, overreact to the one post. But this was a tough race to make
00:05:35a
00:05:35line for and Commandment 6-1 further ado. Those are kind of the big three. So, let's throw this out
00:05:41again. Let's go through the big three. We already talked about Renegade a little bit. Is there any
00:05:47knocks on these horses? And I'll give you not necessarily my knocks, but what people are
00:05:54talking about. Renegade, obviously, the one hole. Commandment, why can't he keep a jockey? Why did
00:06:00Flavian Pratt take off of him to ride the Chad Brown horse who was going to be double his odds
00:06:07in the race? And of course, further ado, and I'll throw this one out to Jerry first, people have him
00:06:12pegged as a Keeneland-only horse. He only runs his best races there. Jerry, is there something to be
00:06:19said for that? Have you ridden horses in the past that just absolutely loved one racetrack and just
00:06:25weren't the same when you took them away from that track? Well, yeah. First of all, I'm going to say
00:06:30there's a knock or a question mark on all of them. So, which is the most prevalent? There are some
00:06:38horses that like some courses better than others, but typically, it's like going to Saratoga from
00:06:43downstate New York. It's a mountain there. It's better. It's less traffic around the horses. It's
00:06:48a quieter training atmosphere. Those are the kind of things I think horses enjoy and thrive at a
00:06:54different racetrack, not just going from Lexington, which is really nice and serene, to Louisville. I don't
00:07:00think there's that big of a difference. And as Randy has pointed out on occasions, because we sit
00:07:04next to each other, so we hear a bunch of things we say, it's too shallow of a body of
00:07:09work to judge
00:07:10from. Just one race last year in the fall at Keeneland to coming to Churchill Downs and winning
00:07:16the Jockey Club. Of course, the performance wasn't as good, but there might be other factors. In fact,
00:07:21there probably were other factors involved than just coming to a different racetrack.
00:07:27I've got one question for Jerry, and I just have one question. If you can ride any horse in the
00:07:34race, who are you riding and how are you riding him? I was asked this on a call earlier. I
00:07:42would
00:07:42ride further ado. Okay. He's got three of the things I really like. First of all, you know he's
00:07:48run faster than any other horse, so he's capable of doing it. Pedigree and his style suggest the
00:07:54extra furlong will not be a problem. And he is so tactical. He's a jockey's dream. He puts you in
00:08:01position wherever you want to be. He can be a little closer, a little further back, however the
00:08:05race unfolds. And he's got more than one move. He can creep up, hold that position, and then move
00:08:10again. So for a jockey that takes a lot of pressure off you in terms of decision-making
00:08:16and limiting your options, he's got multiple options.
00:08:21Yeah, I'm sorry if we said this on another, if I said it on another podcast. If so, I'll just
00:08:26repeat
00:08:26myself since it's Derby Week. Jerry alluded to there might be other factors involved with further ado.
00:08:32After he broke his maiden at Keeneland last year, and then he ran, he won the Kentucky Jockey Club,
00:08:38but the numbers weren't as good. He wasn't as visually impressive, yada, yada, yada.
00:08:42He came out of the Kentucky Jockey Club a week and a half, two weeks later, and got very sick.
00:08:49There is every possibility that whatever he came down with was in his system when he ran in the
00:08:56Kentucky Jockey Club. Brad Cox has considered that. When he got him back off the farm, he missed the
00:09:03whole month of December, did not do well at all on the farm. When Brad got him back to the
00:09:08track, he thought there was no way he was going to make the Kentucky Derby. He thought he was
00:09:12looking at maybe the Lexington, maybe the Preakness. After the Tampa race, he absolutely
00:09:17blossomed. And you saw what happened in the bluegrass. And since then, Brad said he's done
00:09:24exceptionally well at Churchill Downs. So I think there were some extenuating circumstances there.
00:09:28Bill, the only thing that I would say before we leave further ado,
00:09:32is that there is a slight concern by me that his Derby race was a month ago in the bluegrass.
00:09:39That's how good it was. Can he reproduce that? I've got a slight concern about that. But I also
00:09:45think he can regress several buyer points and still win.
00:09:49I would absolutely agree with you. Did he leave his best race behind him? All right. Commandment.
00:09:55Why doesn't this horse get more love? I don't get it. Jockeys don't want to ride him. He's six to
00:10:00one
00:10:00in the morning line. He's trained by Brad Cox. All he does is go out there and win. He's not
00:10:05going to
00:10:06be my pick. We'll get to that later. But Zoe, I think he is a very strong contender in here.
00:10:12I don't
00:10:12have a single knock on him at all, other than the weird jockey situation. But, you know, I'm not going
00:10:17to say because Flavian Pratt didn't choose to ride him. I'm going to choose to believe that he stuck
00:10:23with Chad Brown because that's his guy. And I don't think he made the decision based on who he
00:10:28thought was the best horse. But Commandment, can you poke any holes in him? I can't.
00:10:34It's hard to. It really is. I mean, he's finished in front of Chief Wallaby, the Puma. He's a very,
00:10:41very good horse. And yes, I'm sure Pratt would have loved to have stayed with him and ridden
00:10:45with him. But sometimes your allegiances have to go elsewhere. I think everyone should get
00:10:50a free pass for the Derby, in my opinion. I'm sure Jerry would agree with me there. Wouldn't
00:10:55you, Jerry? Have you ever had to ride a horse that you didn't want to because of allegiances?
00:10:59Not saying that Pratt doesn't want to ride emerging market, but just because of that?
00:11:05Trainers in my era, Zoe, were very forgiving when it came to the Kentucky Derby.
00:11:10You needed to leave their horse to ride a horse that obviously had a really good chance. They
00:11:14did not hold it against you. That's how it should be.
00:11:20All right. So we've kind of gone over the big three. So far as other horses in here that you
00:11:26think have a chance and would be horses you might be using on your exotic tickets or maybe even betting
00:11:32to win. Well, I'm sticking with the Puma. He will actually be my pick and we'll get to that later.
00:11:37I just see Mage 2.0 all over this horse. Same connections. Both horses ran second in the
00:11:44Florida Derby. Improved to win the Kentucky Derby. I don't think we've seen the best of this horse yet
00:11:50and he should be a square price in the neighborhood of about 12 to 1. So I don't see any
00:11:56of these 50 or
00:11:5730 to 1 shots having any chance in this race. So if you want me to go for a long
00:12:01shot or a semi-long
00:12:02shot, that'll be my pick in there. Mage. Jerry, your turn.
00:12:07Unless you have a Mage for the Puma.
00:12:09Yeah, so that's a good pick. I have him as one of my horses that could definitely win the race.
00:12:14But what I said, every horse has a knock or checkmark, whatever you want to call it.
00:12:19I'm wondering, after talking to Javier Castellano and his ride in the Tampa race, it was the Sam
00:12:28Davis. Actually, it was the Tampa Bay Derby. He intentionally wanted to stay out. Now, he said
00:12:33it was because it was a better part of the racetrack. I'm not positive about that. It could
00:12:38be true. But he did the same thing in the Florida Derby. I'm wondering, does this horse need to be
00:12:44on the
00:12:44outside of horses to get his best performance? It kind of is a question mark in my mind.
00:12:49I do believe Javier will ride him slightly different in the Kentucky Derby than he did in the Florida
00:12:56Derby. And if you go back to Mage, he might have moved a little too soon on Mage in the
00:13:01Florida
00:13:01Derby because Forte came back around him and beat him. He adjusted a little bit and he made a deeper
00:13:06and a more well-timed ride in the Kentucky Derby when he won. I think he's probably going to do
00:13:12the
00:13:12same thing with the Puma here. I call him, sorry, Zoe, I call him the Puma, not the Puma.
00:13:21But I think he's got a chance. Yes, I do. But if he has to be wide on both turns,
00:13:25I think it
00:13:26minimizes his chance. I don't know that, but it's a possibility.
00:13:30Zoe, by the way, Nick Luck has already been told in no uncertain terms by our producer that the horse
00:13:35will be pronounced the Puma. And he said, oh, I'm going to get so much grief for calling him Puma.
00:13:41Do I have to call him Puma? And the producer said, yes, you have to call him Puma.
00:13:45I got grief for the OBS sale from Romero Restrepo and Gustavo Delgado Jr. They're like, Zoe,
00:13:53it's Puma. I'm like, I don't care. He's like, it's named for my dad, Puma, because he's actually
00:14:01named for a singer in Venezuela who has the same hair as Gustavo Sr. So they're like, I said,
00:14:08I just can't do it. There's no poo in Puma. It's just, I can't, it's Puma.
00:14:13If you like Commandment at all, you have to like the Puma. You have to. I mean,
00:14:19people talk about, and Jerry and I have talked about the Florida Derby, Commandment was way back.
00:14:23He was last at one point, slow pace, won anyway. The Puma was back there with him.
00:14:28The Puma was back there early, just where Commandment was. They were side by side.
00:14:32The Puma ran wider than Commandment did around the turn. He covered more ground.
00:14:37The Puma was in front until the last jump when Commandment got him by about that much. So I
00:14:43could totally see the Puma. And to me, the Puma is improving more incrementally. So I think he's
00:14:51got a great chance to win. All right. How about the Kentucky Oaks? The race that'll be run Friday
00:14:57on at 8.30 post time, a new wrinkle from the folks at Churchill Nouns and NBC. And I did
00:15:03my
00:15:03pick today. I like Prom Queen. First of all, Brad Cox, when it comes to this race, I mean,
00:15:09there's nobody better. He's won three times since 2018. I looked at this race and it was kind of a
00:15:14slow group. So I'll let Randy start this off. The buyer par figure for the race is a 94. Now
00:15:20I know
00:15:21most horses, a lot of horses will peak in this race, but nobody's run that fast yet. A lot of
00:15:25these
00:15:25horses are in the 80s. Prom Queen ran a 90 in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Looks like a horse to
00:15:31me
00:15:31that has not hit her best stride yet. And again, I think Brad Cox is to the Kentucky Oaks what
00:15:37Bob
00:15:37Baffert is to the Kentucky Derby. He just has this race figured out, Randy. Oh, I've got a very high
00:15:43opinion of Prom Queen. She's on my very, very short list of very, you know, top Kentucky Oaks
00:15:50contenders. But I think the horse I'm going to go with is a bit more of a price. And that
00:15:55would be
00:15:55always a runner from the Chad Brown Barn, who was in no way 100% fit for the Gazelle. And
00:16:06yet she still
00:16:07was very visually impressive with a strong turn of foot. She won in a speed figure that was just one
00:16:12point lower than 89 than what Prom Queen got. And I think she's going to take a nice step forward
00:16:18in the Kentucky Oaks. And she's 10 to 1 in the morning line. So I'll take the always runner Prom
00:16:26Queen exact. How about that? All right. Well, I'm going to go with Percy's Bar. She's not getting much
00:16:33love on this show. I love Percy's Bar. I'm taking always a runner underneath for everything that Randy
00:16:40already said. And Explorer is going to be right in there as well. So I'll take those three and throw
00:16:46counting stars in my super factor. I think you guys have pretty well nailed it.
00:16:52I was talking to Randy this morning. I like Prom Queen until we sat down and talked to Chad Brown.
00:16:59And I said, always a runner. Might be the winner to be. So that would be my exact. Zoe, the
00:17:06only reason
00:17:06I don't like Percy's Bar. I like Percy's Bar. But she had a dream trip at Keeneland in the Ashland.
00:17:11And she's drawn outside now. So she's most likely not going to get anywhere near the good trip that
00:17:18she got a month ago. So for that reason, I don't have her in the top two. But she could
00:17:22certainly
00:17:23run well and be third. So briefly, because Jerry and I might not even have time to tell the story
00:17:28of
00:17:29always a runner. After she broke her maiden at Turfway Park, she got very sick.
00:17:33She missed 20 days of training. And Chad said, there goes the Kentucky Oaks. Got no shot to make
00:17:38the Kentucky Oaks. And all of a sudden, she came around in her training and had a great workout.
00:17:42And he looked at the field of the gazelle, the prospective field, and said, you know,
00:17:46I think she's got, I'm going to give her a chance. So he put her on a van last minute,
00:17:51got Dylan Davis to ride her last minute, shipped her up to Aqueduct. And she runs huge. And she was
00:17:56in
00:17:56no way close to a hundred percent because she had missed so much training time. And yes, she still
00:18:02won. All right. Races other than the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks that you're looking forward
00:18:08to. My goodness, you could pick from any one of about a dozen, as usual, just a spectacular card
00:18:13on both Friday and Saturday. Here's my pick, though. Friday's Ali Shiva stakes. How do you not like this
00:18:18race? Skippy Longstocking. The return of Baeza making his first start for Bill Mott. Tappen Street,
00:18:25remember him when he beat Sovereignty last year in the Florida Derby before he threw in a clunker
00:18:30last time out. Grande, Disruptor Cross entered. Maybe he's going to go in there. Maybe he won't.
00:18:36But of all, there's so many big races over the weekend. But that was my pick for my race that
00:18:42I'm most looking forward to other than the big two. Randy? I think Jerry and I will have the same
00:18:47opinion. Go ahead, Jerry. Churchill Downs, Sprint. Well, I don't know. It's a toss-up between the Pat
00:18:54Day Mile and the Churchill Downs, Sprint. But I'm going to go with the Churchill Downs, Sprint with
00:18:57what I think might be one of the best horses in America, Knightsbridge. He is just a monster.
00:19:04The race he ran at Gulfstream, I think all four of us could have piled on with Junior Alvarado that
00:19:10day and he would have won. And he could be just a special horse going forward.
00:19:15And he will be tested like he's never been tested before with Cornucopian in there running against him
00:19:21and others. But yeah, that's going to be a hell of a race.
00:19:25I've got one more for you guys. The Pat Day Mile. I mean, in fact, on FanDuel this morning,
00:19:32I guess Cherie DeVoe was trying to badger Bob Baffert and go head-to-head with him and he wouldn't
00:19:37take the wager. She's like, I'll go head-to-head with Crude Velocity and the Englishman who draws
00:19:42the rail. She says she couldn't get him to go to a head-to-head bet with her. Yeah.
00:19:47I thought that was funny. And Bob's very confident. He's very confident in his horse. That's
00:19:50interesting. Yeah. Very good. Randy and I were in his barn this morning, Bill, and he walked out.
00:19:57We had two minutes to talk to him and he walked out with a horse and he said, hey guys,
00:20:00this is my
00:20:01best three-year-old. My very best three-year-old. It was Crude Velocity. Interesting. Interesting.
00:20:06Not potente or litmus test. How about that? Good to know. All right. Well, Jerry, thanks so much for
00:20:11joining us as a Gainesway Guest of the Week. Go back and do all your work. Keep Randy
00:20:16in check this week, would you? And we're looking forward to your guys. You guys do such a great
00:20:21job on NBC and can't wait to see the show for those of us not fortunate. I could throw a
00:20:25spitball
00:20:25and hit Jerry right now. He's right behind that door. All right. We're going to take a break. When
00:20:32we come back, we're going to hear from Keeneland and then our team, minus Jerry Bailey, will go over
00:20:38all the 20 horses drawn into the field of the Kentucky Derby. Stay with us.
00:20:43Our guest of the week, Mr. Jerry D. Bailey, brought to you courtesy of Gainesway Farm Home
00:20:48to Tappet, who Jerry never had the privilege to actually ride. But you know all about Tappet
00:20:53as a perennial leading sire. Did you also know, though, that he has now established himself
00:20:58as a perennial leading broodmare sire as well? In fact, he was the leading broodmare sire in
00:21:042023 and 2025, finished second in 2024. Already this year, he leads in that category by black
00:21:11type horses and graded stakes winners. And by the start of 2026, his doctors had already
00:21:17produced over 100 stakes winners. They include the non bourbon in the Kentucky Derby and Bella
00:21:24Ballerina and prom queen in the Kentucky Oaks. Tappet, one of the most influential sires of the
00:21:29past half century, still stands at Gainesway, still going strong at a fee of $185,000.
00:21:36How to weigh $13,000.
00:21:38STPE
00:21:39Tieni
00:21:39T Iowa
00:21:40DS
00:22:09We do this so your granddaughter
00:22:11can work on a farm someday so the stands will still be packed in 50 years that's why we come
00:22:19to work
00:22:20every day obsess over every single detail because the story of racing is written one moment at a time
00:22:30and the future of our industry deserves nothing less keenland every moment matters
00:22:39we want to remind you that the tdn writers room is brought to you by keeneland the keeneland sales
00:22:44ring provides the biggest marketplace for the biggest moments year after year keeneland defines
00:22:49the standard as the premier source of elite horses built to compete at the highest levels of the sport
00:22:55all right you want an example just look at this weekend 12 of the 20 kentucky derby contenders
00:23:02are keeneland sales graduates that's 12 out of 20 and the kentucky oaks eight of the 14 kentucky
00:23:10oaks contenders are also keeneland grads so when you're looking forward to your next big moment
00:23:15look no further than keeneland well as promised let's go down the 20 starters
00:23:21entered into the kentucky derby to be run on saturday with a post time of
00:23:276 57 eastern time and we've already talked quite a bit about renegade the one horse we talked about
00:23:33whether or not he would be the favorite whether or not uh the one post will bother him anybody else
00:23:39have anything to add we all think he's a live horse don't we randy i think he's a very live
00:23:43horse i will
00:23:44just add a couple of things uh and they're on the con side of renegade you know what the pros
00:23:48are
00:23:48he's got a good turn of foot you know dynamic win in the arkansas derby uh when you talk about
00:23:54the the
00:23:55the way that he blew by the horses visually in the arkansas derby you have to put that in the
00:24:00context of what he was running against okay he was running against a very weak field in my opinion
00:24:06in the arkansas derby it's like driving a car 80 miles an hour and going by another car going 60
00:24:11and you're going to look like you're just absolutely flying and it's all in context of how fast the other
00:24:16horses were running secondly the closing time i think i might have mentioned this on an earlier podcast
00:24:21came home very fast his last two sixteenths of a mile on a downhill stretch run at oakland park from
00:24:30the three sixteenths pole to the first turn there's about a 10 foot grade and it makes a difference in
00:24:35closing times the average final furlong of all the other mile and an eighth prep races they're almost
00:24:39all consistent 12.89 12.90 12.91 arkansas derby 12.55 yeah it's like three one three
00:24:51tenths of a second almost two full fifths of a second faster because they're going downhill in
00:24:56arkansas still finished well still finished well but not as you know over the top unbelievable as
00:25:03just the times alone might make it say not downhill at tampa i've said that before as well for renegade
00:25:10um i like him he's got to contend with the one hole i hope he doesn't get bashed around he's
00:25:15not an
00:25:15overly big horse and we've seen light framed horses do very well at churchill especially in the derby
00:25:21because they're nimble and get through so that could be a pro and it could be a con does he
00:25:25get
00:25:25bashed around because he's kind of a lighter more feminine horse or is that a good thing to get through
00:25:30in a spot on the rail you'll take it any way you want to those are my thoughts on renegade
00:25:35and he gets
00:25:35one of the best riders in the world to ride him which is a big plus number two is albus
00:25:41i'm beginning
00:25:42to think if man of war won the wood memorial he wouldn't have any chance in the kentucky derby
00:25:47the poor wood memorial has fallen on hard times and uh zoe i'll start off with you um not only
00:25:53is
00:25:53the wood memorial not produced much of anything in decades that has has uh fared well in the kentucky
00:26:00derby but um this buyer figure of 83 in there that's awful slow i sure can't see him can you
00:26:06he's got to step up numbers wide he's probably going to get a good trip drawn down on the rail
00:26:11he
00:26:12doesn't need to be part of that early pace pressure uh manny's gonna have to pull a rabbit
00:26:17out of the hat to get him even close i would imagine at the wire but it's the derby and
00:26:22anything
00:26:23can happen i can see him flying late now whether he's going to be good enough to get a nibble
00:26:28of it
00:26:28i'm not sure yeah i completely agree with everything you both said uh i will say that um there is
00:26:36more
00:26:36speed in the kentucky derby than people realize i think that a lot of people think
00:26:40and so that will play to albus's benefit but is that is he good enough to take advantage of that
00:26:46and get into the superfecta i i uh highly doubt it out of a bernardini mayor you can't knock that
00:26:53well does anybody give intrepido a chance to get into the superfecta at 50 to 1 um i was not
00:26:59uh that
00:26:59big on this horse but he didn't do much running the san anita derby randy i can't see him either
00:27:03no i do not give intrepido much of a shot to be in the superfecta i do give him a
00:27:08strong shot
00:27:09at being part of the pace uh situation in the race given how fast he worked going into the race
00:27:16and how poorly he ran in his last start i think he'll be on the engine from the start
00:27:21and i think he'll be part of what should be a a fairly competitive base and i feel bad for
00:27:27jeff
00:27:27mullins i'd spoken to him a few days before that 45 flat work at churchill downs and i said
00:27:33your horse looked really good at santanita last week he worked in behind horses he did everything
00:27:39right he went 47 and changed and jeff was like that was too quick so the very next day i
00:27:44see him
00:27:44work 45 at churchill and he wasn't there i'm like oh my god he's gonna kill him so i see
00:27:50um jeff a
00:27:51little bit later on i'm like what about that he's like i'm gonna kill him and he's talking about
00:27:55hector berrios the jockey now hector's worked this horse a thousand times and i said to jeff i said well
00:28:02you put him on him what do you expect the reins were flopping that's how hector rides the reins
00:28:07are always flopping he's like well he should have took a hold of him i don't think he had any
00:28:13clue
00:28:13he was going that fast whatsoever that's a horse who can work 103 with the reins flopping he obviously
00:28:19just was feeling good that morning and just went way faster than hector thought he was going to and
00:28:24that's a damn shame it really is all right we get into litmus test uh here's a one for randy
00:28:31rabbit hole moss so last time bob baffert had a 50 to 1 shot in the morning line in the
00:28:37kentucky derby
00:28:38that's got to be a first uh other than baffert and you know can baffert work magic yes but boy
00:28:45would
00:28:46he really really have to work magic in my opinion uh to get this horse home uh first didn't run
00:28:51a step in
00:28:52the arkansas derby interesting that he's putting the blinkers back on after the horse uh he took
00:28:57them off for the arkansas derby maybe that'll help him but um if he runs back to his los alamitos
00:29:02futurity that was a pretty good race but he's really shown nothing um randy as a two-year-old
00:29:07excuse me as a three-year-old to suggest that uh uh well i'll throw this to zoe first it's
00:29:12uh to
00:29:13suggest that he's a major contender in here pace he looked good working over the track 59 and change
00:29:18out of the gate with the blinkers on with martin garcia he'll be part of the pace whether he's
00:29:23there at the end i don't know i don't think so but it's the derby yeah i think bob's just
00:29:29throwing
00:29:29mud against the wall and and hoping for a rich strike kind of miracle hoping that something
00:29:34sticks and uh it's hard to make a case hard to make a case for this horse other than being
00:29:39part
00:29:39of the pace all right if you don't like albus you probably don't like right to party either second in
00:29:45the wood memorial nice story here chris elliott uh trying to win the kentucky derby 22 years after
00:29:50his father steward elliott wanted aboard smarty jones but uh randy uh just uh automatic throw out he is
00:29:58to me yeah he is to me too it's like this it's this from a storyline perspective it's cool it's
00:30:03interesting you know uh but it's kind of like the uh the riley mott bill mott thing it's a great
00:30:09storyline but does albus have that much of a chance to win uh you know incredible i don't know
00:30:17but at least you know the elliott story is really cool cool story i'll pass okay zoe what do you
00:30:25think
00:30:25about commandment what can you add to what we've already said about him the horse that uh no jockey
00:30:30seems to want to give any love to you'd ride him wouldn't you you'd love to have that mount i
00:30:34i would
00:30:35absolutely buy into mischief out of an old mess if you can harbor was a graded stakes winner as a
00:30:40two-year-old you got brad cox in your corner you've got louis size there's nothing wrong with
00:30:45him whatsoever and he's going to be in the spot that half the field wants to be in that kind
00:30:50of
00:30:50three four five six back just stalking the ridiculous speed in front of you so bill bill says
00:30:59i don't understand why nobody gives this horse any love no jockeys can ride him
00:31:04i'm not picking him
00:31:08pick him second by the way i'm showing him more love than flavian pratt did by the way
00:31:12all right there you go and look um yeah i mean i there's it's hard to knock him he just
00:31:18like you
00:31:19said but he wins and he overcame a slow pace as did the puma in the florida derby to run
00:31:24very very
00:31:25well wouldn't be surprised at all to see commandment win or again be right there along with a half dozen
00:31:31other horses all right let's move on to number seven the first of the uh japanese horses danon
00:31:37bourbon is that the correct pronunciation yeah danon bourbon danon bourbon um randy you uh i'll let you
00:31:44take this away i'm i'm sure you've uh done a deep dive into this horse i don't know what to
00:31:49make of
00:31:50the uh japanese form and forever young who went on to greatness ran great in this race to finish third
00:31:55but no japanese horses won it um on paper it looked too bad he's three for three broke his maiden
00:32:02by
00:32:0210 um uh i guess if a japanese horse is going to run he's probably the best of the bunch
00:32:08but uh
00:32:08not not somebody i'm too excited about how about you randy uh the the best that i can come up
00:32:14with
00:32:15and it's hard with denon bourbon because there's no american connection even like you know six degrees
00:32:22of separation between denon bourbon and any of these horses in america but but the best i can
00:32:27come up with looking at the times and all that is puts him you know middle of the road even
00:32:34though
00:32:34he's undefeated even though he's visually impressive i have questions about the competition that he was
00:32:39running against so i don't consider him to be uh forever young 2.0 by any stretch of the imagination
00:32:46i'm using him underneath i'm looking for a price in my underneath exotics because anything can happen
00:32:52he's undefeated he's by a very good sire in maxfield he's out of a tap at mayor distance not going
00:32:58to be
00:32:58a problem they paid near half a million for him at keeneland he was a beautiful yearling so i'm just
00:33:04taking a swing and i'm throwing him underneath i've got really no clue about him other than i'm just
00:33:09taking a swing and the japanese will win the kentucky derby probably you know within a decade
00:33:15it's gonna happen well we'll see if it happens this year all right we're gonna take a little
00:33:19break and we're gonna hear from our friends at the pennsylvania horse breeders association randy will
00:33:24tell us who the fastest horse of the week is we come back we'll keep going through the kentucky
00:33:29derby field td and riders are also brought to you by our good friends at the phba pennsylvania
00:33:36horse breeders association on wednesday at parks it was a big day for pennsylvania breads three stakes
00:33:42races on the card for pa breads first shane's wonder ran his career record to three for three
00:33:49with a romp in the 75 000 weight for its stakes for pa sired to pa bred three-year-olds
00:33:55he races for
00:33:56his breeder uptown charlie brown stud always perennial leaders in the state then carmelina
00:34:02bred by lily voucher won her second consecutive unique bella stakes another hundred thousand
00:34:07dollar race for pa bred fillies and mares and finally 90 maddie get this she's now a stakes
00:34:13winner at two three four and five i say she it's a he following his win and the hundred thousand
00:34:19dollar page mckinney handicap for pa bred sprinters congratulations to owner breeder lc racing and if
00:34:26you would like more information about the pa bed program and the 2026 stakes schedule for pa breads
00:34:32that was for zoe visit www.pabread.com or call brian sanfitello at 610-444-1050
00:34:41the pennsylvania breeding program is the best program in the country the stallion awards the owner bonuses
00:34:49also the restrictive races and the stakes races for pennsylvania breads last year 321 pennsylvania
00:34:56breeders earned breeders awards 22 pennsylvania breeders earned over 100 000 we have the best
00:35:04program in the country take advantage of the fantastic program that we have learn more at
00:35:10pabread.com and now the fastest source of the week brought to you by the fast sires at winstar farm
00:35:17the first falls for the world record setting cogburn are arriving around kentucky and just
00:35:23like their namesake it appears they have true grip get it rooster cogburn true grip movie i didn't
00:35:28write that but i like it check out this pair of recent arrivals on the left is a colt out
00:35:34of the
00:35:35mayor thorny bred by saras's thoroughbreds and on the right is a philly out of candy apple red
00:35:41bred by yes who winstar farm cogburn if you recall the fastest son of not this time
00:35:46set a world record at five and a half furlongs on the turf winning jiper stakes at saratoga
00:35:51in 59.80 earning a year best 114 buyer speed figure in cogburn stands at winstar farm for a fee
00:35:59of
00:36:00twenty five thousand dollars fastest source of the week you may have already read about a three-year-old
00:36:05philly who made her career debut last thursday at keeneland winning by three and three quarters links
00:36:11the daughter of maxfield mashallah with a gaudy buyer speed figure of 106 becoming only the 20th
00:36:20horse since the buyer speed figures were published in daily racing form in 1991 to earn a figure of 106
00:36:27or higher in his or her career debuts mashallah owned by jr ranch trained by brendan walsh written by
00:36:35joel rosario i texted brendan walsh after the race and said how good is mashallah brendan told me
00:36:40i think she's really good randy master of the understatement 106 buyer for mashallah the fastest
00:36:48horse of the week
00:36:54so we pick things up with the eight horse in the race which is so happy trained by mark glatt
00:36:59a lot
00:37:00of sentimental stories here as well of course with mike smith trying to become the oldest jockey ever to
00:37:05win the kentucky derby to surpass bill shoemaker will become the oldest jockey ever to ride in the
00:37:10kentucky derby and also the uh story of mark glatt losing his wife shortly before the san anita derby
00:37:16uh 15 and one morning line i want zoe as you said this is uh you you spoke of dan
00:37:22on bourbon as a horse
00:37:23you're going to throw in um this is a horse i'll use here and there um i kind of got
00:37:29caught up in the
00:37:29run happy thing myself it looked like he wasn't going to go a mile an eighth to me based on
00:37:34his
00:37:34pedigree he looked really good in the san anita derby um i know he beat a horse zoe you're very
00:37:39high
00:37:39on in potente i give him will he be in my top three picks no but i wouldn't be shocked
00:37:45if he if he
00:37:46were to win and what a story it'd be for mike smith to win the derby at his age my
00:37:50goodness
00:37:50it will be a fabulous story on both sides mark smith and mark glatt and his family the cool thing
00:37:57about
00:37:57so happy he took a massive move forward when he took down the san anita derby and the biggest move
00:38:03forward for me that i saw was his behavior in the paddock and how much more relaxed he was that
00:38:09day
00:38:09than he was prior to the san felipe it's like a light switch went on with him and he just
00:38:14chilled out
00:38:14in the afternoon now mark said he wakes up race day which he does but i was delighted to see
00:38:20a much
00:38:21more composed uh so happy in the paddock he's super relaxed in the morning they've been speaking
00:38:27about all week long how he trains in blinkers because he doesn't want to pick his head up or
00:38:31pick up the bridle so he gallops in blinkers every day does he run in them no he doesn't need
00:38:36them in
00:38:37the afternoon he just needs them in the morning just to kind of do a little bit more so it's
00:38:43hard
00:38:43not to knock him off of that race in the san anita derby where he beat potente fair and square
00:38:48going away which is key here um i've always been a big believer that as important as pedigree is
00:38:56once a horse establishes himself or herself on the racetrack performance then trumps pedigree
00:39:03we've all seen fabulously bred horses that were nothing on the racetrack and vice versa
00:39:07and i will say this about so happy if you did if you knew nothing about his pedigree whatsoever
00:39:13and you watch the san anita derby there wouldn't be that much of a doubt in your mind that the
00:39:19horse
00:39:19could go on and get a mile and a quarter he was pulling away from potente in the san anita
00:39:23derby look
00:39:23we didn't think so happy would get a mile and a 16th as well as he sprinted because he's by
00:39:29run
00:39:30happy we certainly didn't think he'd run a mile and an eighth as well as he sprinted so he keeps
00:39:36you
00:39:36know he keeps proving that maybe there's more blame in him on the female side than run happy on
00:39:43the male side and so i think he's in i think he's in the mix with the shot like you
00:39:47pointed out bill to
00:39:48to be you know to be part of the super effective i'll tell you something i was in the paddock
00:39:53when
00:39:53he before the san vicente and i was standing next to baffert who had butane in there and a couple
00:39:59of
00:39:59others and he's like who's the horse of of mark latz who's he by i'm like run happy he's like
00:40:04what
00:40:05kind of mares he out of i'm like blame he's like that's a nice horse he just kept talking about
00:40:09how
00:40:09good he looked in the paddock he wasn't worried about his horse he was looking at mark's horse he's
00:40:14like that's a nice horse he's like why didn't i buy him at obs like why didn't i buy him
00:40:19so that
00:40:20to me is super interesting all right randy i'm already on record once again my official 2026
00:40:27kentucky derby pick is the puma for reasons i said earlier um i like the way he's coming into the
00:40:33race
00:40:33i like the way the connections uh are taking the same route they did with mage i think uh jerry
00:40:38bailey
00:40:39and the whole crew or uh i don't know if anybody else is picking him on top like myself but
00:40:43got a lot of uh love out of our panel um and uh looks like you're in agreement oh yes
00:40:48i can't i can
00:40:50find nothing really not to like to you know to knock uh the puma about except maybe what jerry pointed
00:40:58out the inside outside thing but that's more of a that's more of a jerry bailey analysis than uh than
00:41:04me but zoe what what do you think about the puma the puma by essential quality bread but out of
00:41:10a
00:41:10declaration of warm air you can't knock that pedigree any way you look at it um he's not the
00:41:17flashiest horse in the morning to look at but then nor was mage really i mean watching him just kind
00:41:21of canter around churchill downs he's not a horse who's gonna wow you in the morning especially with
00:41:27i think he blew out maybe an eighth of a mile yesterday they might blow him out again on tuesday
00:41:32or wednesday um or thursday prior to the race so he's not going to wow you on the track i
00:41:39wish he
00:41:39could wow me a little bit more but paper wise and pedigree wise can't knock him yeah and if he
00:41:46was
00:41:46trained by todd pletcher brad cox or chad brown he wouldn't be the price that he is and that's not
00:41:50really fair because delgado has won the kentucky derby correct very good point there mr uh randall moss
00:41:57we will move on now to number 10 wonder dean randy i'll start this off another japanese horse uh who's
00:42:04coming out of the uae derby where he won we know that uh uae derby horses uh have uh has
00:42:11the uae derby
00:42:12has yet to produce a kentucky derby winner any chance this guy can uh post what would be a big
00:42:18upset at
00:42:1830 to 1 on the morning line well let me talk buyer speed figures with you uh we can get
00:42:23a little bit of
00:42:24a line on this horse uh because of the american horses that ran on the same card as uh as
00:42:29wonder
00:42:29dean did it and it may not just take whatever speed figure whatever buyer speed figure any of the
00:42:35speed trigger you want let's talk buyers uh that magnitude got when he defeated forever young
00:42:41in the dubai world cup subtract 14 points from it and that mathematically gives you the number
00:42:47that wonder dean ran i happen to believe that magnitude probably ran a 107 or a 108 and matched
00:42:54his career high in the in the dubai world cup and that forever young probably regressed a little bit
00:43:00from the breeders cup and from the saudi cup and that would give wonder dean a 93 or a 94
00:43:06which puts him middle of the pack maybe even a little further back than that in the kentucky derby so
00:43:12i don't consider him uh based on that to be a primo contender in my eyes i concur
00:43:21very good like that short and sweet zoe cadman all right you're welcome all right incredible number
00:43:2811 another storyline lots of good stories riley mott the young up-and-coming trainer has two horses in
00:43:35this year's kentucky derby he'll be trying to beat his father bill mott who won last year with
00:43:39sovereignty and has um of course uh chief wallaby in here and um riley mott also has albus as we
00:43:46mentioned earlier coming off a win in the virginia derby um not sure whose turn it is it would be
00:43:51uh
00:43:51zoe's turn but from the virginia derby to the kentucky derby that's a pretty big uh dive into the
00:43:58deep end of the pool nice horse improving horse uh but he's gonna have to run the race of his
00:44:04life
00:44:04so for me to even hit the top three or four good for them they've got two horses out of
00:44:08a crop of
00:44:09sixteen thousand who made it to the derby that's a huge accomplishment in itself just to get there
00:44:15out of an awesome again mayor they paid only seventy five thousand for him at keelan september
00:44:20he's made almost half a million already so they are already well ahead of the eighth ball and don't
00:44:26forget he's undefeated a churchill downs he is two for two at churchill is he good enough to beat the
00:44:32rest of these probably not but you you can't knock the fact that he does seem to like churchill downs
00:44:38and distance should not be a problem you can't go by the final time in virginia because the track was
00:44:44supersonic fast so keep that in mind he does pass the eye test in that race when he got a
00:44:51seam at about
00:44:52the eighth bowl he burst through with a nice turn of foot didn't beat much but visually he looked very
00:44:59impressive and that that counts for something number 12 is chief wallaby the bill motte horse
00:45:06i think this i don't i'm not throwing this horse out by any stretch of the imagination but i think
00:45:10he's going to be over bet here and i think a lot of that has to do with people's uh
00:45:15faith and
00:45:15which they should have he's one of the greatest trainers literally in the history of the sport won
00:45:20the derby last year but i want wanted to see more from him in the florida derby that was the
00:45:26race
00:45:26where i thought we'd see the coming out party he ran okay but just okay he wasn't good enough to
00:45:33beat commandment he wasn't good enough to beat the puma granted he only got beat a half length
00:45:37very interesting equipment change though blinkers on randy give us your take on chief wallaby
00:45:43uh i'm not going to have an official pick because it's tuesday as we tape this and i'm still in
00:45:48reconnaissance mode this race is so evenly matched but i will tell you i will tell you i have it
00:45:53down
00:45:54to further ado and chief wallaby i love the way chief wallaby has trained here uh and remember
00:46:02sovereignty didn't look all that fantastic in the florida derby either and then he came to churchill
00:46:07downs and took a big step forward i think this horse has taken even more of a step forward since
00:46:11he's been here of course he had more catching up to do than sovereignty uh but i you know i
00:46:16love the way
00:46:16he's looked here and i think he's going to run a heck of a race he looked terrific working with
00:46:21junior alvarado 49 flat over the strip bending junior alvarado in two now my biggest question
00:46:29would be has there ever been a horse win the kentucky derby with blinkers on i'm not sure there
00:46:35has that's that's my one question mark yeah it's obviously an unusual situation to do that for the
00:46:44kentucky derby and i asked bill this morning i said how much of an internal debate did you have
00:46:51about whether you would do this with blinkers or not for the kentucky derby and he said zero he said
00:46:58as soon as the horse crossed the finish line in the florida derby i said to myself this horse needs
00:47:03blinkers and he said he's had them before never raced in them but he's had them before in workouts
00:47:08and decided he decided not to run him in them because he wants to give horses a chance to show
00:47:14that they can run without blinkers before he puts them on and he thinks that uh he thinks it's going
00:47:19to make a difference all right zoe i'll start with you with number 14 potente you've been talking about
00:47:24this horse for a long time matter of fact you were part of the team that uh was in uh
00:47:30integral in the
00:47:31decision to purchase this horse and uh i know you've been high on him from the start uh he
00:47:36definitely improved in the san felipe um it is bob baffert again bob baffert at 20 to 1 you can't
00:47:42go
00:47:43too wrong with baffert at 21 in the morning line but um as you did say earlier i mean he
00:47:48got beat on
00:47:48the square by so happy so he's gonna have to improve off that race can he do it he's gonna
00:47:53need a really
00:47:54good ride from jj from hernandez who's riding the derby for the very first time maybe jerry could go
00:48:02and whisper in his ear randy just give him a little pep talk there bob is adamant that this horse
00:48:07does
00:48:08not want to run how he ran in the derby adamant so he wants him off the pace i'm very
00:48:14happy with the
00:48:15draw i love the way he got over the strip he was probably a second faster or two than anyone
00:48:22wanted
00:48:23him to go that day kind of got away from martin at the beginning of it it's been a while
00:48:27probably a
00:48:28year since martin was on a really good horse uh so i think it shocked the pair of them that
00:48:34he was
00:48:34going quite that fast but i loved his work he looked good on the track this morning and i'm sticking
00:48:39with
00:48:39patente he's a big hulk of a horse if you go and take a good look at him he should
00:48:44not have a problem
00:48:45with any of it i i can't like him from what i see on paper but you can do a
00:48:53whole hell of a lot worse
00:48:54than 20 or 25 to 1 on a bob baffert horse in the kentucky derby number 15 is emerging market
00:49:01that's
00:49:01the horse that flavian pratt has chosen to ride for a chad brown pratt or no pratt i'm sorry guys
00:49:07i don't
00:49:07like this horse um he regressed off his maiden win at tampa to run a 90 uh buyer in louisiana
00:49:13derby
00:49:14and we'll get to pavlovian in a minute but pavlovian who is not to me a real star horse
00:49:21gave him all he could handle um now being that it was only a second career start this will be
00:49:26his
00:49:26third start i would expect to see some improvement but um you know as much as i like everyone else
00:49:33love the chad brown flavian pratt combination this is uh well i'm throwing out a 15 to one shot so
00:49:39i'm
00:49:39not necessarily going out on a limb here but um randy i don't really like this horse
00:49:46yeah by by the way if i just said that you could do a whole hell of a lot better
00:49:50than bob baffert at
00:49:5121 i meant to say do do a whole hell of a lot worse um i think emerging market uh
00:49:57is in with a chance
00:49:58i i didn't think that necessarily after the louisiana derby but you know the more i've seen from
00:50:06the horse and the more i've thought about it and etc etc um and the jockey maneuvering um i you
00:50:13know
00:50:13i think i know i know chad has been unbelievably high on him since day one and he overcame pneumonia
00:50:20when he was younger and all this stuff and i do believe this and i think flavian chose
00:50:31emerging market to ride i don't i i i don't do not think that he was overly pressured i i
00:50:40don't
00:50:41think that i mean he writes brad cox has probably got a stronger stable top to bottom right now than
00:50:45chad brown does and flavian writes for brad as well as chad and from what i've been told and from
00:50:54what i understand to be the situation um flavian picked emerging market to ride because he thinks
00:51:02he's got a better chance and look who we picked last year to ride who was landed on the also
00:51:07eligibles who finally got in by azer who was fourth i think i read a tweet the other day about
00:51:13pratt in
00:51:1416 triple crown races never worse than fourth just one time and that was solomini two wins
00:51:23and the rest of them second third fourth bar one solomini just his second ride in a triple crown race
00:51:30so he's got an amazing record for just sniffing the cheese and finding his way through all these
00:51:37horses i like him all right well that's two thumbs up for emerging market one thumbs down
00:51:44zoe thumbs up on pavlovian we just i just discussed him he he was second louisiana derby
00:51:49behind emerging market okay wow okay that's three thumbs down on pavlovian i'll say he's a gutsy horse
00:51:57he is gutsy you know you can't buy the amount of try that that horse has and i love the
00:52:03fact that he
00:52:04doesn't do it in the morning as well because his work out of the gate was pretty darn awful but
00:52:09that's
00:52:10just how he is in the morning he's so laid back in the morning but in the afternoon you can't
00:52:16buy the
00:52:16type kind of heart that this guy has he's got a lot of try in him and i love that
00:52:21about a racehorse
00:52:22and i will i'll say this is a trainer opinion and i know trainers are biased you know their own
00:52:28horses
00:52:28but doug o'neill firmly believes that if pavlovian can be head-to-head for the lead at the quarter
00:52:34pole
00:52:35that he'll be around at the finish fighting and as as part of the you know in the mix at
00:52:41the end
00:52:42all right uh we have what we've gotten through 16 horses so that means we have one two three four
00:52:48to
00:52:48go among the horses that are in the main body of the race and uh we'll be right back here
00:52:54on the
00:52:54tdn riders room podcast to discuss those horses after this message from west point thoroughbreds
00:53:01tdn riders room also brought to you by west point thoroughbreds i don't have to tell you west point
00:53:06puts together premier partnerships and premier racehorses three-year-old philly counting stars
00:53:12as 29 different owners and when counting stars is loaded into the starting gate friday night for
00:53:20the kentucky oaks those partners will all be brought together in one huge moment that's a lot of weight to
00:53:28carry 29 different partners but what a team counting stars has in her corner black and gold silks of
00:53:35west point will be flown by jockey francisco arieta who will ride the philly for trainer mark
00:53:41cassie best of luck to counting stars from west point thoroughbreds
00:53:47all the thrills
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00:53:56experience the power of the partnership
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00:54:09west point thoroughbreds the gold standard in racing partnerships visit westpoint tv.com
00:54:17on this week's edition of first things first our own michelle you got to catch up with the
00:54:21connections of the winner of the royal heroin stakes
00:54:30joined by tim cohen of rancho temescal thoroughbred partners what a great victory this was take a breath
00:54:36i mean i feel like she embodies that name
00:54:39she is she um i was holding mine down the lane i can tell you that so uh she's she's
00:54:44um just really
00:54:45improving every every month with mark and um we kind of wanted to wait a little bit but he says
00:54:50she's
00:54:50trained so well let's run she gets back to back rated stakes wins there and this was a big turn
00:54:55back in distance for her i mean i feel like she had residual fitness from long distance races but do
00:55:00you think she was going to be as effective going a mile yeah i wasn't concerned about a mile at
00:55:03all
00:55:04um i actually i think she's probably better at a mile than a mile and a quarter but um right
00:55:08now
00:55:08she's just running so well we just keep on going well you ready to race this one do you know
00:55:12what
00:55:12your next plan is going to be with her or do you just wait for mark to get home from
00:55:14kentucky
00:55:15oh no we're going to leave mark there because we win when he's gone
00:55:17and uh sorry mark you got to bring a string over yeah yeah i think the gamely is her next
00:55:22logical
00:55:22spot very exciting happy for you and your partners i heard you screaming all the way from up there i'm
00:55:27sure part of that was the um the 11 20 payoff right exactly we'll take that take a breath it
00:55:31takes the
00:55:32royal heroine here congratulations thank you thank you
00:55:39many thanks to michelle and just a reminder that even though we're all looking towards the kentucky
00:55:45derby racing does continue at santa and etia and we'll kick off with a special thursday edition
00:55:51of racing three pick six carryovers going into thursday card we have the regular pick six carryover of over
00:55:5844 000 that starts in race number four we have a sunset six carryover along with a coast to coast
00:56:05carryover of 68 000 so you can play all those on thursday at the great race plays do want to
00:56:12reminder that we will
00:56:13have a late post on friday 3 15 p.m pacific time 6 15 p.m eastern time for friday's
00:56:22card at santa
00:56:23and etia and then on saturday we'll have 11 races on saturday and then more races on sunday so a
00:56:28special four-day weekend of racing at the great race place number 17 at 50 to 1 on the morning
00:56:35line
00:56:35written by brian hernandez is six speed coming out of a second place finish in the uae derby randy i
00:56:43give
00:56:43him no shot how about you i had he'll be in front okay oh that's right yes yes very much
00:56:50though he's
00:56:51fast and that's the only way he can win is to go to the lead so you know they're going
00:56:54to want to be
00:56:55there but i think there's too much pace competition and i don't know that uh he can go the full
00:57:00mile in
00:57:00quarter i don't think he's good enough anyway got a derby winning jock aboard him brian hernandez it'll
00:57:06be probably the first time brian's been on the lead in the derby won't it what's going on i'm not
00:57:11used to being up here in front this is nice i'm all nice and clean that's not an mo is
00:57:17it no all right
00:57:19so now we get to number 18 further ado and come saturday you'll know who randy moss picks but he's
00:57:24told you right now it looks like it's between further ado and uh chief wallaby we talked a lot
00:57:30about further ado in our opening segment with uh jerry bailey and uh randy um what are the pluses of
00:57:37this horse and what are the minuses of this horse he's fast he's uh he's tactical um he rates very
00:57:46well so he can be close to the pace if it's not that fast he can be a little further
00:57:50back if it is
00:57:51fast um he's apparently training well the cons if you do believe that he runs better at keeneland
00:57:59then i guess supposedly uh theoretically that could be a con another con is what we pointed out that you
00:58:05know is there the bounce factor involved that he ran so well in his last start he's not a particularly
00:58:10big horse that even though he's had time to recuperate could he have uh could it affect him
00:58:15adversely coming in here brad cox says no brad cox believes he's actually taken a step forward
00:58:22since the bluegrass stakes but i've also heard many times from trainers top trainers including
00:58:30wayne lucas who had a great quote about this that the the better a horse is the harder it is
00:58:37to judge
00:58:38how much a big race took out of that in lucas's words the very best horses always meet you
00:58:45at the front of the stall in the morning meaning that they're always eager to do their job they
00:58:51always you know put me in coach put me in coach and then the jockeys don't know the trainers don't
00:58:57know until the horse hits the quarter pole really how much that last race really did take out of him
00:59:03from all indication he looks okay uh i i think he's gonna be there he's gonna be part of a
00:59:11very
00:59:11very fast pace and he runs on the bridle so it's not like he really gives himself a breather per
00:59:19se
00:59:19he does it easy and that's worked for him thus far but with 19 other horses around him running on
00:59:25the
00:59:26bridle as hard and as fast as he goes i i don't know i'm not saying it move on to
00:59:33number 19 golden
00:59:34tempo and in the words of the immortal andy byer uh the colleague of randy moss with the buyer speed
00:59:39figures he's just too slow randy he's gonna have to pick it up definitely but hey i agree with zoe
00:59:48the pace is going to be hot the pace is going to be uh very contentious which benefits horses like
00:59:53golden tempo he'll be last at some point going down the back stretch maybe even last by himself i don't
00:59:59know he's got zero speed but he'll love the mile and a quarter uh the fast pace will help and
01:00:04i could
01:00:05see him moving up you know to the high 90s figure going a mile and a quarter with that kind
01:00:11of pace
01:00:11and finishing fourth or third yeah he might get a piece of it what what was i had sheree talking
01:00:20this
01:00:20morning about him she's like oh we're talking to him today because he's got cracked heels i'm like oh
01:00:25good god that's all anyone's going to talk about is cracked heels now oh what have you done what have
01:00:31you done so you got cracked heels on golden tempo you got three quarter shoes on renegade because
01:00:37he's got quarter cracks but he ran in the arkansas derby with the same three quarter shoes on so
01:00:43hopefully that's not a problem for him but this is all anyone's going to be talking about cracked heels
01:00:48and and uh shoes and finally we wrap it up with post 20 the third of the three brad cox
01:00:56horses full
01:00:57effort and uh zoe it's your turn here you've heard randy talk about two fills for the last
01:01:03three years about like he should be at you know should have won the 23 kentucky derby and i think
01:01:08randy's got a good point even though the horse didn't win he did prove that you can come out of
01:01:13the jeff ruby stakes off the synthetic and run your eyeballs out in the kentucky derby this is a very
01:01:19good horse he's trained by a very good trainer tyler gaff leone no problem there i haven't mentioned
01:01:24the post position 20 i don't think that's perfect but what do you think is he going to transfer his
01:01:29form from the synthetic and the turf to the dirt and if he does what kind of chances he have
01:01:35to quote
01:01:35brad cox if he'd have worked as good last year over the main track as he has this year he
01:01:41did never
01:01:41run on the turf in the first place that's exactly what he said that horse had a terrific
01:01:46work over the main track at churchill downs he looks terrific uh he's gonna have to step up he's
01:01:53got post position 20 and he's gonna be a wise guy horse he's not gonna be 20 to one i
01:01:59think he's
01:01:59gonna take an awful lot of money because a lot of people are on him already so don't think you're
01:02:04gonna get a massive price if you like full effort he's not without a shot in here i concur okay
01:02:10all
01:02:11right i couldn't pin randy down for a pick he says his pick will either be chief wallaby or further
01:02:16my pick is um the puma zoe can we pin you down patente for sure okay so there you have
01:02:26it a pick
01:02:27from myself a pick from zoe a maybe a pick from randy you'll have to tune in to nbc on
01:02:33saturday
01:02:33it is time for the tdn writers room work of the week brought to you by first tv as always
01:02:39this week
01:02:40we're going to give you not one but two works the derby favorite and the oaks favorite both owned
01:02:45by last week's games way guest of the week mr mike ripoli let's take a look at the derby favorite
01:02:52renegade he's seen here working on the outside a half mile in 50 and four fifths that's his regular
01:02:58rider nora mcormack aboard him he's working in company with power shift and then after we watch him
01:03:05cross the wire he's a good worker as always renegade we're going to take a look at zany
01:03:10also working the same day working four furlongs with nora aboard as well she had a busy day and
01:03:16she's been busy all week at churchill downs zany's working here in 49.07 and that's her on the outside
01:03:23working in company with she be smooth we'll be right back after this message from first tv
01:03:32be a smarter better with first tv the best horses
01:03:38with thousands of exclusive morning workouts
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01:03:51everything you need to be informed be smart bet smart with first tv
01:04:04well that was fun it was especially great to have jerry bailey who was our gainsway guest for
01:04:08the week i want to thank my partners randy moss and zoe cabman as well as our producers who worked
01:04:13so hard behind the scenes to make this show look as good as it does at sue finley katie petruniak
01:04:18anthony larocca and alia larocca thanks for tuning us in thanks for watching have a great
01:04:23kentucky derby day everybody talk to you next week
01:04:25you
01:04:31you
01:04:33you
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