00:00So the Astros, I believe, are going with a sort of opener tonight,
00:05starting Tang against the Baltimore Orioles.
00:08They've got Shane Baz starting.
00:10And, you know, if Tang hadn't pitched in Palm Beach this spring,
00:13I probably would have no clue who this guy is.
00:15But because I saw some spring games and I was around,
00:18I had a chance at least to see what he was doing.
00:21Baz, to me, is the better pitcher here.
00:23I'm pretty bearish on Houston at this point.
00:26And that's another situation I think that we've got to keep an eye on.
00:29As the season goes on.
00:31But, listen, anything can happen in one game.
00:33So any opinion on this game tonight?
00:35No real opinion.
00:36If I had to lean one way, I'd actually probably look towards the under.
00:40And I think it's a nice little contrarian play here
00:42because who's baseball's best over team?
00:46The Houston Astros.
00:47And the Orioles, I think, have gone three straight games to the over as well.
00:51And then you have Shane Baz, who was due for a lot of positive regression.
00:54He's gotten off to a pretty unlucky start.
00:56And the Astros' offense is, of course, really good.
00:58But you've got Baz at home.
00:59I think he could limit damage.
01:01And then the Astros are probably going to go with more of a quasi-bullpen game.
01:05Get 10 going for three innings and then mix and match with their pitchers.
01:09And I always feel like that style is undervalued in the market.
01:13You see a bullpen game and you say, oh, they're going to crush him.
01:16And I'm not here to say that the Astros' bullpen is very good.
01:19But the Orioles' offense doesn't really scare me either.
01:23I know Basayo is heating up as well.
01:24But at nine, I think it's a little bit too high.
01:27My model makes it eight and a half.
01:28I'll lean towards the under.
01:30Yeah, nothing from Pete Alonso just yet.
01:31Maybe that will start this week.
01:33Okay, so the return of World Series hero and postseason hero Trey Savage tonight for the
01:38Toronto Blue Jays.
01:39But let's call it what it is.
01:41I mean, there's no chance this organization lets him throw more than 80, 90 pitches in
01:45four or five innings.
01:46So it's really not his game tonight, which is why I think the line is what it is.
01:50It's about a pick-em game, total seven and a half.
01:52Peyton Tully starts for Boston.
01:54And wouldn't you know, the Red Sox are on this little mini winning streak.
01:58Do you think that that continues tonight?
02:01I like Trey Savage a lot.
02:03And if we were to compare him against Peyton Tully, I like them both.
02:06I also, again, lean towards the under in this one.
02:09I think both starting pitchers right now, because you weren't really sure about Trey Savage
02:13since he's coming back from injury.
02:14Peyton Tully hasn't proven a lot.
02:16But both of these two guys, when they are on, are electric.
02:20And neither offense really scares me either.
02:22I see a low total at seven and a half.
02:24I think it should be lower.
02:25Again, my model makes it seven.
02:26So a slight lean to the under.
02:28All right, finally, when was the last time you saw Jacob DeGrom pitch in a Major League
02:32Baseball game?
02:32And he is a dog tonight.
02:34That's a little crazy.
02:35Probably not much of one.
02:36Plus 102 here.
02:38Probably going to be minus 105 by the time it starts.
02:40But that's the situation, because the Yankees pitcher, Cam Schlittler, has been incredible.
02:43And they're coming off a night where Judge and Rice homered.
02:46So more or less a pick-em game tonight.
02:48I saw, boy, I saw the Rangers stadium last night absolutely jacked and packed for that
02:53game against the Yankees.
02:55Absolutely.
02:55And the only reason Jacob DeGrom is at home is because the Yankees have proven they're
02:59the best team in the American League right now.
03:01And Cam Schlittler is second in Cy Young odds behind Tarek Skubel.
03:06That's how good he's been.
03:08So this is the only time you can make Jacob DeGrom a dog, and deservedly so.
03:12I make it minus 126 plus 126.
03:15So you've got about six cents of value currently at minus 120 on the Yankees.
03:19Not enough to warrant a play, but certainly I would lean towards the Yankees side.
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