Astros vs. Angels: Betting Analysis & Game Insights

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00:00Let me talk to you about the Houston Astros in this next game here, Tom.

00:04It's the Angels and the Astros of Soriano and Brown.

00:06And by the way, analytically, they love them.

00:08Last 45 days, Soriano's actually number two on the card today with an exit of a 2.82.

00:12Brown, we know the energy that he can give on the mound.

00:15I, the Astros, have passed two nights in some way, shape, or form in all team totals and also team totals.

00:19They lift 1,000 players on base.

00:22They cannot get base hits with runners in scoring position.

00:25Don't know where the power is coming from at this point.

00:27So let me tell you this, Astros, right now.

00:29You go out today and played five runs in the first five innings against Soriano.

00:32I'm going to have an issue with that.

00:34But the total, Tom, open up at seven and a half, still sits at seven and a half.

00:38A favorite for Houston overnight, touching the minus 200 range.

00:42That's backtracked all the way in to the high minus 160s here.

00:45The Astros have a problem at the plate, not with opportunities, but cashing in, Tom.

00:50They really do.

00:52And, you know, what we've seen from Hunter Brown is obviously fantastic.

00:56Recently on the entire season, outside of a few blips on the radar, he's been a borderline Cy Young candidate.

01:03He truly has been that good.

01:05Soriano, as we've talked about before, he's a pitcher that I don't think is good.

01:11Low strikeout rate pitcher.

01:13Does not give up home runs.

01:14But the hits and the balls in play that he gives up, a 9.9% walk rate is terrible.

01:20What it comes down to, what is it?

01:21Yeah, it's a 65% ground ball rate he has, which means he has a 16% fly ball rate, which is astronomically low.

01:27Like, that's awesome.

01:28But when he does give up hits, it's a single double, and then the 9.9% walk rate comes into play.

01:35And then it's a single double walk, single double walk, no home runs.

01:37So, if the Astros are not able to get runs against Soriano, I would say that's a very concerning sign for them,

01:45especially how they've been playing and not getting runs across when you have the opportunity to do so.

01:50So, yes, the Astros are by far the better team, and Hunter Brown is a significantly better pitcher.

01:54But to see runs not get across on Soriano, I would say, would be more surprising, despite his recent results and underlying metrics.

02:01Yeah, sooner or later, the dam is going to break for Houston.

02:03The problem is I'm not going to be waiting in front of the dam for that big splash.

02:05I'm like, oh, seven runs today.

02:07Boy, that was easy.

02:08Absolutely been tortured the past couple nights.

02:11Like, you know, you see it all the time.

02:12Hey, bases load, nobody out.

02:13What are they doing that inning?

02:14Oh, no runs.

02:15Thank you, guys.

02:16One base hit late in the game to get me to three runs.

02:18Can't get it done.

02:19But that's the fuming, the fuming that your boy DRS has done with the Houston Astros.

02:23That's a tougher game today.

02:24And it's not like, well, Donnie, just take them today.

02:26Eventually, they'll hit.

02:27I actually don't like the matchup today, so I'm just not going to take them to take them at this point

02:30because sooner than later, it's going to work out.

02:31How about this one?

02:32Scoble going to take on Kansas City today.

02:34Waka's on the other side, 965, 966 on the rotation, a 210 start, Tom.

02:39We just talked about a total that was 7.5 in that L.A.-Houston matchup.

02:43We're looking at 7.5 in this as well.

02:45And a heavy favorite for the road team, the Detroit Tigers, in that minus 175 range.

02:50Scoble's last 45 days in epic, 2.53x, fifth number, great ERA.

02:54It's just what he does.

02:56But, Tom, is there weather in the atmosphere in Kansas City that we might want to watch out for today?

03:01Yeah, this is basically the only game that has rain issues today.

03:07And, you know, the other games, like, we'll get to some of the West Coast games.

03:09It's going to be super hot in Sacramento.

03:11But this game has rain, and that presents an issue for Scoble.

03:15And whether the rain comes early, and then they delay the game, and it throws off his routine,

03:19or they start the game, and then you have an hour delay, and then all of a sudden,

03:23oh, hey, we're not putting Scoble out there after resting for 50 minutes or an hour.

03:26You know, this has me leaning towards the Royals.

03:29They have been playing better as I play.

03:30We've been talking, we talked about the Tigers up at the top when we went over the divisions,

03:33where they're playing okay right now.

03:36And Walker is a pitcher where, Donnie, we would agree, he's not some type of stud.

03:40But the ground ball rate that he has, he can kind of sap the power away from opposing teams.

03:44And in this type of weird game, when the weather presents an issue for Scoble,

03:49why not just take the plus money on the Royals?

03:51I understand the Tigers are a significantly better team, but I have concerns about this game.

03:55And ultimately, that means that leads me to a little play on the Royals,

03:58or just completely stay away because I'm worried about not getting a full Scoble effort because of the rain.

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