Padres vs. Red Sox: Brian Bao Pitches Amidst Tension

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00:00It's Brian Baio going on the mound against Dylan Cease.

00:02That's the Padres and the Red Sox, 927, 928 on the rotation.

00:05A favorite here for the home team, San Diego.

00:08Overnight time, right around a minus 150 price.

00:10Still in that marketplace right now.

00:12152s, 148s, I'm seeing, across different sportsbooks.

00:15A total, though, how about this drop?

00:17Eight and a half overnight, down to seven and a half.

00:20Excuse me, got that wrong.

00:21No, no, I'm right.

00:22Eight and a half to seven and a half.

00:23Craziness right now.

00:24What's going on?

00:25Any runs for the Padres today?

00:27Looks like a pitching matchup based on the odds.

00:28Goodness.

00:29It really should be.

00:31You know, Brian Baio is a pitcher that I don't want to say I was concerned about coming into the year.

00:39Obviously, the injury that set him back.

00:42He's just not the pitcher that I'm like, yeah, I can trust this guy.

00:44Like an 18% striker rate is not high.

00:47An 8.6% walk rate is not great, in my opinion.

00:50But a 57% medium contact rate and a 49.6, let's call it a 50% ground ball rate.

00:57When you look back at his game log, all he does is eat innings and he prevents runs being scored.

01:02Sure, we're going to see a couple of innings, you know, three-year runs, a couple games, three-year runs.

01:06But he's out there for innings.

01:07He gives up a few hits, but he doesn't get damaged.

01:10Like he's never getting blown up with massive runs.

01:13Cease on the other side can really strike out hitters.

01:16We certainly know that.

01:17He can get burned by walks and the long ball.

01:19But the under, I think it makes sense.

01:21And I think Baio going over his outs prop, I can double-check what that is.

01:26That's what I like the most.

01:27I do not see hitting in this matchup.

01:28This is a playoff-type environment where both teams absolutely need to win.

01:33By the way, Dylan Cease must be the most maddening pitcher in Major League Baseball to handicap.

01:37His last 45 days, 13 and a quarter is his K per nine, which is off the charts.

01:42I mean, you're not even putting the ball in play.

01:44But it's like one game, Tom, I'll see six innings pitched, no earned runs.

01:46And I'll see four innings pitched, six earned runs given up.

01:49I don't understand if your stuff is that good.

01:51And you're right.

01:51Walks do come into play, but some hard contact just catches at the wrong time.

01:55He's one of those crazy pitchers to look at.

01:56If we look at the last 45 days for Brian Baio, 19th on my card today, 266 ERA, which is very good,

02:02but a 423 XFIP number.

02:04And you take a look at Cease's number.

02:05It's only a 313.

02:06So the better XFIP analytical guy is Dylan Cease.

02:09But, boy, is he maddening to bet at this point here.

02:11San Diego Padres, Louis Arise, Ramon Laureano, Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado,

02:15Xander Bogarts, over the past month, had very good statistics against right-handed pitchers,

02:19which Baio is.

02:20But Baio does have pretty good stats.

02:21He just doesn't strike out a lot of guys.

02:23That's his issue.

02:24But usually in baseball, that's a big issue.

02:26And sometimes, Tom, we ask that question like, okay, soft contact, that's great.

02:29But here's where you get yourself out of trouble, which Dylan Cease can do.

02:33Oh, no.

02:34Runners on second and third with nobody out.

02:36Strikeout, strikeout, pop up, and away you go.

02:39Whereas if you're not a strikeout pitcher, second and third, that's a death nail.

02:41Now, that's fly ball to right field, fly ball to left field, you're down two to nothing,

02:44even if it's sacrifice flies at that point.

02:47It really is.

02:48You know, I've always talked about that for a number of pitchers.

02:51I'm like, oh, this is a guy who can, quote-unquote, pitch himself out of trouble,

02:54which is what pitchers with super high strikeouts can do, which is what Cease has historically done.

02:59I had Cease on a Dynasty fantasy baseball team, and I had to let him go at a certain point.

03:03Like, I know the maddening where you get like, oh, he almost had a no-hitter when he was on the White Sox,

03:07and he struck out 13 hitters, and then next time out there, it's five earned runs over four innings with six walks.

03:12Like, what are you doing?

03:13Because your stuff is so good, he just can never bring you at a consistent level.

03:17And frankly, the Red Sox lineups should scare even a picture of the 29% strikeout rate.

03:22You give them walks and extra base hits, the Sox are going to put up runs.

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