00:00We are joined now by AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
00:03John, we have big concerns about this evening and tonight, and again tomorrow as well.
00:08This is a volatile setup with widespread risk for severe thunderstorms across parts of the central United States.
00:15And we're going to have damaging wind concerns, large hail, and yes, some tornadoes.
00:21And some of those could be particularly intense.
00:23This is driven in part by more moist air being delivered northward here.
00:28And look at these dew points.
00:30Anytime you have a dew point of 65 or higher at this time of the year, that's really indicative of
00:37rich, low-level moisture that's fuel for severe thunderstorms.
00:41You can see we've got that, and more of it's being drawn to the north here, right up across parts
00:45of Missouri, out toward Illinois, and also down into portions of Kentucky and Tennessee as well, Jeff.
00:52And, John, we have big concerns regarding the widespread nature of the severe storms, but also the destructive tornado potential
01:00within this whole setup.
01:02That's the two points that we're most concerned about.
01:04Look at the amount of real estate here from parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota all the way southbound through Arkansas
01:11and even northern Mississippi here.
01:13So many states in the threat zone here through the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours.
01:19And, of course, remember, tornadoes that happen after dark are particularly dangerous because people can be sleeping and not as
01:27aware of what's occurring.
01:28That's why it's very important to have multiple ways of getting weather warnings, including the free AccuWeather app, and turn
01:33on those push notifications.
01:35The area that we're most concerned about for the risk for long-lasting and particularly intense tornadoes is the area
01:43across portions of Missouri, especially eastern Missouri, downstate Illinois, and even southeastward toward parts of southwestern Indiana, and also into
01:54portions of western Kentucky and western Tennessee as well.
01:56And we can see as this plays out, we'll put a pause point in late this evening, still some pretty
02:00volatile storms.
02:01There will be a time where we kind of transition from tornadic potential to more straight-line winds.
02:07When do you think that might happen?
02:09I think that can happen during the evening hours, perhaps around 7 or 8 o'clock central time, as there'll
02:14be a transition from those individual thunderstorm cells.
02:17That's what we call discrete cells.
02:19Those can have a big potential for tornadoes early on.
02:22And then you can see they'll tend to congeal into lines of thunderstorms, which would have a damaging wind and
02:27hail threat, and yes, can still produce tornadoes along the line.
02:31And then look at the line continuing to move to the east.
02:34Also concerns about flash flooding with these storms as well, so multiple threats on the table.
02:39And before we totally move ahead to tonight and especially tomorrow, that tornado risk, it's centered over some very populated
02:46areas.
02:47It is across, as we mentioned, the areas here from Springfield toward St. Louis, down toward Evansville and Carbondale as
02:56well.
02:56And notice we're using the language here.
02:58This is language we don't use very often.
03:00A significant risk of long-track tornadoes, and those can sometimes be particularly intense.
03:06They can be on the ground for an extended period of time, much longer than a typical tornado, which is
03:11only on the ground on average for a few minutes.
03:13These can be on the ground for 45 minutes sometimes to an hour or more when you get this type
03:20of a setup, especially with those individual storm cells.
03:23So that's what you're going to have to watch out for.
03:25And the threat will continue into the overnight hours, which is particularly concerning.
03:30And you can see the cities that you were mentioning here on our list.
03:33A high risk.
03:34That's three out of four on the AccuWeather Severe Threat Index.
03:37Tornadoes, widespread damaging winds and large hail.
03:40But as you mentioned, potential for long-track tornadoes.
03:42And, John, given the overnight threat here, we have just a reminder that we need multiple ways to get that
03:48weather intel.
03:49That's critical.
03:50And downloading the free AccuWeather app is a great way to do that.
03:53You turn on push notifications for your current location and any other location that you care about, where your kids
03:59live, where your parents are located.
04:01Whatever is important to you in your life, you can do that.
04:03You can turn on those notifications within the Settings and Manage Notifications tab.
04:07It can save your life.
04:09We've had AccuWeather customers tell us that a warning received through the AccuWeather app in the middle of the night
04:15has saved their life.
04:17That's a very key tool in order to be able to be aware of what's happening.
04:21And, of course, the AccuWeather network as well will be monitoring this as the storms progress.
04:26And then the storms continue tomorrow, focusing a little farther southeast.
04:30That's correct.
04:31The whole setup translates further south and east.
04:34There's going to be another jet stream disturbance, a couple of them rippling in the flow through Texas and out
04:40into the southern part of the United States,
04:41which means, once again, a renewed risk for severe thunderstorms.
04:45Yes, some tornadoes.
04:46A large hail flooding downpours and damaging winds are concerned as well.
04:50The greatest risk from the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex northeastward toward Little Rock, Jonesboro,
04:56and also getting out toward portions of northern Mississippi as well.
05:00And that activity can progress eastward as well overnight.
05:04And we'll be keeping a close eye on this through the next 24 hours or so as well.
05:10And, John, as this animates here, anything, final words that you wanted to share regarding tomorrow?
05:15That's another dangerous setup and time to be prepared.
05:19Know how to move to safe shelter if a tornado warning is issued for your community.
05:24Know how to do that very quickly.
05:25Great thing to practice with your family before the severe weather threat happens
05:29so that everybody knows how to get there quickly if you have a matter of a few minutes to do
05:34that in the middle of the night.
05:36All right.
05:37AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter.
05:38John, thanks so much for your time.
05:39John, thanks so much for your time.
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