00:00How is the mood on the ground today in Riyadh?
00:04Good morning, Jamana.
00:06Riyadh is... the mood is normal, life is normal.
00:10This is a school vacation, and it certainly feels like it.
00:14It's the end of Ramadan, and the normal Ramadan activities are all going on.
00:20Luckily, Riyadh has been spared the intensity of attacks that other parts of the GCC has seen.
00:30So for most Saudis, life does feel normal.
00:33People are, of course, concerned of the future development of where this conflict is heading
00:38and what are the longer-term effects of it.
00:41But at least in the short term, not a lot of effects are felt today in Riyadh.
00:48It's interesting. I was looking at the performance of the Saudi Tadawal,
00:51that is the Saudi main stock exchange, and it's actually up 1.5% since the war broke out.
00:57So one of the major beneficiaries has been Aramco.
01:01What do you make of this dislocation between how financial markets are behaving
01:05versus actually the sheer number of projectiles that the Saudi Ministry of Defence
01:12has had to intercept over the course of this war?
01:16Of course, investors, whether it's in the financial markets or in other instruments,
01:22will need to balance the long-term and the short-term implications, the good and the bad,
01:27the opportunities and the risks of the significant developments that we are seeing.
01:33The stock market naturally will react to a surge in oil prices because that has a spillover effect.
01:41Even if the quantities that are exported are less than usual,
01:48that is more than made up for by the change in price.
01:52Of course, it also reflects an element of confidence in the future from the Saudi stock market.
01:58People do believe that Saudi Arabia, at least, will – and I think this applies to other GCC countries as
02:08well –
02:09after overcoming this immediate effect of the crisis,
02:14will continue on its economic reform,
02:19will be even further towards diversification of the economy.
02:25The motivation to diversify is even stronger now.
02:28The motivation to localise industry is even stronger.
02:32So there is a clear push towards more economic activity inside the kingdom.
02:42Did you worry about the longer-term consequences of this?
02:46And one of the key pillars of Saudi 2030 is attracting FDI, attracting capital into the kingdom.
02:52And is there concern about how the events over the last 10 days has reshaped the world's image of the
02:59Gulf?
03:01Well, of course, this is a major incident that is affecting the whole world,
03:05not only Saudi Arabia, not only the GCC.
03:08The whole world is affected by this.
03:10And, you know, you have covered it just a few minutes ago,
03:13has clearly demonstrated that the immediate clear effects on the effects of the logistics,
03:21the shipping in the Gulf, the oil production, petrochemical production,
03:25is going to have the ripple effects over the supply chains of the world.
03:29But, of course, in the region itself,
03:31there definitely will need to be a reassessment by investors
03:35and balancing of the risks and opportunities.
03:41The challenge is understanding where the future is heading
03:45and what will happen in Iran in the future.
03:47There is a wide spectrum of possibilities,
03:50a wide spectrum of scenarios that investors need to take into account
03:54and the potential for a sustained conflict inside Iran or with Iran.
04:03And, of course, that is not good for business.
04:06Business and stability go together.
04:09However, if we take a few steps back
04:11and remember that the GCC has been successful over the past decades
04:18to maintain its position as a prosperous, peaceful part of the world,
04:27despite the decades of conflict that the Gulf has seen and the region has seen.
04:34So, since the early 80s, when the Iraq-Irani Gulf was a threat to the whole region
04:42and caused a lot of economic impact,
04:46the Gulf has built in a lot of resiliency.
04:50The resiliency has been only increased over the decade
04:54with each conflict and in anticipation of conflicts.
04:58The East-West pipeline has had a huge effect today
05:04in keeping the prices where they are.
05:07It could have been much, much worse
05:08if it has not been for that built-in resiliency.
05:12And it's not only the East-West pipeline.
05:13It's all oil production, petrochemical production
05:17and other infrastructure
05:19that benefits from a lot of resiliency that is built in
05:24because of this continuous tension in the Gulf.
05:30So, again, the transparenter is being introduced to theoma.
05:31Thank you to the
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