00:00And talk once again to the defense analyst Alex Alfiraz.
00:04Alex, welcome back.
00:05Where does this extended ceasefire leave things?
00:09Are we seeing real diplomatic progress or is this simply some kind of holding pattern?
00:16I think what we're seeing here is the Trump administration kicking the can down the road.
00:21I think the Trump administration still hasn't figured out what it is exactly it can accomplish,
00:26never mind what it is its strategic objectives are.
00:29So this is a holding pattern, almost a bid to buy time, so to speak,
00:33to see how the next few days actually pan out.
00:36Remember that the United States is deploying military assets to the region,
00:41which is probably why the U.S. hasn't set a deadline for this particular ceasefire,
00:46now the seventh ceasefire extension to date.
00:49So I think we'll see more clarity come in a week's time.
00:53And unless something happens within that time in terms of a negotiated settlement,
00:57then this conflict certainly could escalate once again.
01:00Do you think there is a clear U.S. exit strategy in sight?
01:06Yes.
01:07No, I do not believe so.
01:09And I do not think that the Trump administration also thinks that there is a clear exit strategy.
01:13It's flailing.
01:14It's looking for a strategy.
01:16In fact, this war has been won, has been in search of a strategy.
01:19So all the operational stuff has actually yielded very little.
01:23In fact, it's done the very opposite of what the Trump administration set out to do,
01:27which is to weaken this regime.
01:29And I might have been able to do that in terms of striking targets and degrading some of its capabilities.
01:34But the regime is now much stronger than it was on February 27th,
01:38because obviously it can hold the global economy hostage
01:41and it has control over a very critical maritime choke point in the Strait of Hormuz.
01:46With the U.S. maintaining this naval blockade,
01:50and tensions obviously still running high in the Strait of Hormuz, as we've been reporting,
01:54can a ceasefire really hold for much longer?
01:58I think we're looking at an incredibly precarious ceasefire here.
02:03And one of the reasons why that is is because the conditions of the 10-point plan that the Iranians
02:09put out
02:09and the conditions that the Americans set out in their 15-point plan are in direct tension with one another.
02:14So this is a ceasefire that is on tenterhooks.
02:17Anything could happen to undermine it.
02:19Things are already taking place now in the Strait with attacks on tankers on both sides.
02:24So it doesn't look to me that this is a particularly reliable ceasefire.
02:28We spoke some time ago when this started.
02:33All these weeks on, what's really been achieved?
02:38From the political standpoint, as far as the United States is concerned, very little.
02:43In fact, I think what's happened here is a complete backfiring of why the United States launched this campaign with
02:49Israel in the first place.
02:51Now, they can say that they've targeted some of Iran's nuclear facilities,
02:55so they've degraded Iran's ability to weaponize its 60% highly enriched Iran to the 90% threshold.
03:01Falling short of that, and even that's a very sort of amorphous, murky form of achievement,
03:06I would say that nothing has really been achieved from the U.S. standpoint.
03:10From the Iranian standpoint, this is one of the unintended consequences of this war.
03:14They've gained severe, significant bargaining leverage.
03:18They now have more leverage at these talks.
03:21They can even decide to pull out of these talks.
03:22That's not the behavior of a power that feels as though it's on the down.
03:26It's a behavior of a power that feels that it's actually got a little bit more influence than it had
03:30prior.
03:30People all around the world are obviously picking up the cost of this conflict
03:36and removed from the tracks of the region might well be asking how much longer is this going to go
03:44on for?
03:45How much longer can it go on for from the U.S. perspective, first of all?
03:50So, I mean, the U.S. has to balance out its military objectives with what is politically salient for the
03:57Trump administration.
03:59So I think it's clear that the Trump administration desperately wants to find a way out
04:03because it's cognizant of the fact that this is actually hurting the United States.
04:07It's hurting the United States economically.
04:09It's hurting the United States politically.
04:10But also in terms of the reliability that the United States has,
04:14the stature that the United States has on the global stage is being severely undermined by its actions.
04:19From the Iranian standpoint, that's a really good question
04:21because it's shown that it can absorb a lot of pain.
04:24It can take a lot of these hits.
04:26And I don't think that for Iran, going to the negotiating table with a U.S. that's acting in bad
04:32faith is expedient for Iran.
04:34So it could go on for quite a while longer.
04:37The question is, how much is everybody still willing to suffer in terms of the economic damage?
04:41Alex, thank you.
04:43Alex Alferez shares the defense analyst.
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