00:00Interesting, in the last 24 hours, we've seen a substantial drop in oil prices and bond yields came down.
00:05I guess that just reminds us of some of the fundamental drivers of all this inflation angst,
00:10or one of the drivers of inflation angst, because there are others.
00:16Very much so. I think there's two issues behind the yields move generally.
00:20There's the inflation side and there's the fiscal concerns, and they're working at different kind of time spans.
00:26Now, they're obviously related because the disruption in the strait is both an inflationary impulse
00:31and there's a sense that the extra spending required to kind of provide energy subsidies
00:36and the extra defence spending in this new world is kind of driven by that.
00:39So that affects the fiscal side as well.
00:41I think one of the key dynamics at the moment is we obviously don't know what happens with the strait.
00:46And in the short term, as in over the next couple of weeks,
00:49everything boils down to kind of a bit of a binary situation around what happens around the strait.
00:54Now, I don't have any inside loop to what Donald Trump plans to do.
00:58What I will say is the market is pricing a very high probability for some sort of diplomatic resolution.
01:04I'm not saying some perfect one, but at least a fudged one that works to get enough traffic through the
01:09strait of Ramos.
01:10And because they're ascribing a very high probability to that,
01:14I feel that there's a very asymmetric setup in terms of that if we get disappointed,
01:19if we get material as military escalation in the Middle East, then assets are going to react really badly.
01:25And I think much worse than the upside boost if we get good news from here.
01:29So that's the way I'm very much focused on the downside risks in the short term across markets generally.
01:33I won't say it's a longer term for you, but that's the view for the next week or so or
01:36into the weekend specifically.
01:40Mark, why do we care about that?
01:41We've got SpaceX coming.
01:43I've got an Anthropic IPO, OpenAI IPO coming.
01:47All of that's great news, isn't it?
01:49Why do I need to worry about oil prices?
01:53I think that's an absolutely valid question, Guy, because that's what we've kind of traded in the short term.
01:59We've had a bunch of good tech news.
02:01So we've had the Samsung strike averted.
02:03We've had Anthropic making a profit in the last quarter as it doubled its revenues.
02:07We've had NVIDIA showing that its costs are controlled, continue to make, you know, just immense amount of revenues.
02:14So, you know, we've got the SpaceX IPO raising a large amount of money.
02:17There are so much good news in the tech sector and it's broadening out.
02:20And absolutely, that's what we're trading in the short term, which is why we're kind of ignoring the straight.
02:24We're going, it doesn't really matter.
02:26If they don't get a resolution to the straight, it really does matter.
02:29And that's why I think there's an asymmetric setup.
02:31And I should squeeze in, Guy, I still can't believe you wear a tie in this day and age, but
02:34never mind.
02:37How do you get away with it?
02:39There's a certain category, isn't there?
02:40And we're clearly not in that category.
02:41I'm not elevated enough.
02:42Cudmore is in the Jamie Dimon and Sergio Motti camp.
02:45Clearly, he's long been in that category, hasn't he?
02:48Mark, what do you make of the rebound in Korea today?
02:51I mean, is that all Samsung and NVIDIA?
02:54Is it sustained?
02:55As you showed the dip buyers, are you concerned about the retail exposure in Korea?
03:01I am definitely concerned about the retail buying, the herding.
03:04As we talked about a lot, I think fundamentally the Korea story is very strong, but it's just two stocks.
03:08It's going to remain super volatile.
03:09And I think there's more correction to come.
03:11There's massive relief that the strike got averted, and that came with the tailwind of so much other good tech
03:16news, as we discussed.
03:18I think Kospi does have downside in the short term.
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