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00:00With me now on the Western Hotline is Sam Paniatovich, who I'm not sure what his schedule is anymore,
00:06because I think from Twitter, once again, he's on a golf course in Florida grilling meat or something.
00:12So I don't know, Sam, like, how did the hockey schedule work out for you as a viewer?
00:19Well, it's just great, Mike. I'm going to have some corned beef for dinner.
00:23We got the cabbage and the potatoes and the carrots. Those are in the oven pretty soon.
00:28And got about four slabs of corned beef to celebrate a random Friday in Florida.
00:33But then I do, unfortunately, I go back to reality next week. I go back to Boston on Monday.
00:37But it's been nice to be down there. This is like my eighth day, to be honest, a little floated
00:42out.
00:43But, I mean, you can't argue with the sunshine and the water.
00:46And obviously there's been some alcohol involved. But, yeah, just enjoying it down here.
00:51And, you know, we start ramping up for NFL draft next week.
00:55I thought maybe you had moved there the way things were looking.
00:57But not exactly.
00:59What is – so you live in Boston.
01:02What are the Bruins to you?
01:04I mean, you're not a native.
01:06But during the football season, you talk about people talking about the Patriots.
01:10You listen to sports radio.
01:11What's your perspective on what the Bruins are there at this point in time and how they rate, etc.?
01:18So I sort of liken – and I'm glad you asked.
01:22And obviously you didn't, you know, prep me with this question.
01:25I think the Boston Bruins are very similar to the Wisconsin Badgers basketball program in the sense that they're very
01:33slow.
01:33They're kind of methodical.
01:36They don't really make a lot of mistakes.
01:38But they don't also have the most talent.
01:40Like, they get by with the little stuff, the effort, the plays in the corner, you know, stuff like that.
01:47They're very – well, what's the word?
01:48Gritty.
01:49They're very gritty.
01:50Like, they definitely don't have more talent than Buffalo.
01:53And obviously you played that clip coming back and, you know, the head coach of the Bruins was like, yeah,
01:57we're much more physical.
01:58You realize he didn't say we're better.
02:00And he didn't say we're better at scoring goals because they're not.
02:03So I think the key to this series is can Buffalo play its game the way it's supposed to?
02:11Or does it get – does it get trapped in this cat-and-mouse game where, you know, now you
02:17got – you know, your best players are trying to lay big hits and get away from their game?
02:21I mean, hockey's a very emotional game at times.
02:24And I covered the Blackhawks from 2012 to 2018, and that was the toughest team to throw off their game
02:30because they stuck to their game plan and they did what they were supposed to do.
02:34So oftentimes in the playoffs, these younger teams with not a lot of experience, they just – the moment is
02:41too big for them.
02:42And I think that's the biggest challenge because, you know, Boston knows how to win in the playoffs, at least
02:45a series or two here and there.
02:47The question for this Buffalo team is can they stick to what got them there?
02:50And it sounds so simplistic, but really that's the key.
02:54So Wisconsin then, is that a team that, you know, when the brackets come out, the analysts all talk like
03:00this is not a team you want to play in the tournament?
03:02Or is that a team you want to play in the tournament?
03:05Well, they were better when they had NBA talent, like the years when they had Frank Kaminsky and Sam Decker.
03:10I mean, that team went all the way to the title game.
03:12That was like 2015, I think, when they played Duke.
03:15But historically, if you're a one seed or a two seed, you don't want to see Wisconsin as a seven
03:20or a ten or an eight or a nine.
03:21Yeah, I think that's fair.
03:23But at the same time, Wisconsin also lost this year to high points.
03:27So I think that's – I think that was a pretty good comparison.
03:31I mean, they're certainly not loaded with talent.
03:33This is not the Colorado avalanche by any means or the Carolina Hurricanes.
03:37It's a team you just have to – you have to avoid getting in their style of play.
03:42And if they do that, they'll be just fine.
03:44I'm looking at the series prices right now in Vegas.
03:46And most books have Buffalo about minus 170.
03:52So, you know, you're supposed to win the series.
03:54Doesn't mean you're going to.
03:55But, you know, the Sabres are favored to win a playoff series.
03:59Stop the presses.
03:59How about that?
04:01Sam, I was more asking just about, like, how the Bruins – I mean, popularity or whatever the word would
04:07be for this.
04:08Just thinking about, you know, like you said – like I said, thinking about how you've talked about Patriots fans
04:14in your midst.
04:15Like, are the Bruins hot right now?
04:18This is not a team that was supposed to be that good.
04:21They not quite sneak into the playoffs.
04:24Like, what do your friends think of the Bruins?
04:28Oh, they love them.
04:29I mean, it's a very – it's a very specific fan base.
04:33All the fans in Boston are loyal.
04:35But there's different kinds of fans.
04:37I mean, I think your Red Sox fans are mostly – like, a lot of Red Sox fans are Bruins
04:43fans.
04:43And then, like, the Patriots are their own thing because football is, you know, such a beast.
04:47But it's not like – you know, like in New York when the Yankees fans are all Rangers fans and
04:52then the Mets fans are Islanders fans.
04:54Like, it's not really that.
04:55But I think, like, put it this way.
04:57I used to live across the street from the Garden.
05:00And the Celtics crowd was always, like, a more buttoned up, like, more corporate crowd.
05:06Maybe have a seltzer or two.
05:07And then, like, the Bruins crowd, they get off the train with, like, whiskey in a brown bag.
05:13You know, like, that's the vibe.
05:14Like, they're very, like, blue-collar.
05:16You know, they drop their R's when they say ca and lobster and all that.
05:21Like, it's a much more local, like, infested team.
05:26Like, the Bostonians that love the Bruins are diehard Bruins fans.
05:30And I'll tell you what.
05:30They go no matter what, win or lose.
05:32It's not like the Cubs.
05:34When the Cubs aren't good, nobody goes.
05:35Like, the Bruins fans are very loyal.
05:37And that's a very loud building.
05:40And you'll be able to hear that on TV for game number three.
05:43I mean, assuming the Bruins are not, you know, completely getting blasted, like, you know, 4-0 game one, 5
05:50-0 game two.
05:51Imagine there's something to fight for in game three.
05:54The Sabres are going to have a tough test in game three and game four, for sure.
05:57How many games have you been to?
06:01Oh, geez.
06:02I mean, when I was at Nessun, we did the pregame from there.
06:06So, uh.
06:07Many?
06:07I don't know.
06:08Yeah, 100.
06:09Easy.
06:10Nice.
06:11Sam Peniotovic on the Western Hotline.
06:13By the way, do you want me to send you the questions in advance, in future?
06:16No.
06:17No, no, no.
06:18I'd much rather go rogue.
06:19Good, good, good.
06:20So, the playoffs overall.
06:22For me, and I sort of see myself, I tend to be more contrarian about the Bills and the Sabres,
06:28and we've talked about that with the Bills before.
06:32I'm a tougher sell, I think, on Buffalo than I might be if I lived, you know, somewhere else.
06:38But minus 170, I think I would pay that for them in this series based on this matchup.
06:44I don't think Boston is very strong.
06:47What are a couple of your plays, either for this series?
06:50I know you sent me a text with, I love this one, by the way, leading goal scorers in this
06:55series, players from each team, or just other series in the playoffs?
07:00Sure.
07:01So, I think if you have, assuming you do, listening right now, you have the ability to parlay some series.
07:06I think a really good bet, and I know people want to bet a little to win a lot, but
07:10if you want to wheel the Penguins to win and the Sabres to win, I think that's a pretty good
07:17bet, Mike.
07:18And what we do here is you take that minus 170 on Pittsburgh and the minus 170 on Buffalo, and
07:23rather than lay the 170 to win 100, we bet them together and we turn it into an underdog.
07:29Now, you need both to happen, but a Pittsburgh Penguins series winner and a Buffalo Sabres series winner comes out
07:37to about plus 150.
07:38I think that's a really good bet.
07:39I do believe they both win.
07:42You know, the other teams are okay.
07:44I'm not a big Bruins guy this year, and I think Pittsburgh, like, Pittsburgh's a dangerous team in the East,
07:50and I'm not a Pittsburgh guy by any stretch, but, like, the vets they got, I mean, they could have
07:55three or four Hall of Famers.
07:56They're all healthy.
07:57If they get good goal, as is often the case, they could win a couple series, but, I mean, think
08:02about it.
08:03Crosby, Malkin, Eric Carlson, like, they could win a couple series, but in terms of bets that I've made, I
08:09definitely like Buffalo to win, Pittsburgh to win, and that's plus 150.
08:12And I was looking at Jason Zucker to lead the series in goals, this first series, 8-1.
08:20I don't think that's a bad idea.
08:22Obviously, you know, the goals are very hit or miss sometimes, and most people are going to talk about Thompson
08:28and Pasternak, and those two guys are going to get a lot of the bets, but they're also, like, 3
08:33-4-1.
08:34And Jason Zucker or Alex Tuck to lead the series in goals at 8-1, 10-1, those are interesting
08:41to me, at least.
08:43I like it.
08:44When you sent me that, it was the first time I looked at it, this picture of the goal-scoring
08:50leader odds, and a couple other names I think are interesting on the Sabres.
08:55One would be Norris at plus 2,200.
09:00He's come on, Sam.
09:03Special teams, too.
09:05Like, he's a player that's been a great goal-scorer in his career.
09:10This year was different for him when he came back from injury, and he was succeeding more as a playmaker.
09:16But sniped one on Wednesday night in Game 82.
09:20I think that's a nice price for him.
09:21And a deeper dive would be Quinn, both Sabres, at plus 4,500.
09:31Unfortunately for that, there's no shootouts because he's been great in shootouts.
09:34But he's also somebody with a nose for the net.
09:38So if you wanted to gamble a little bit bigger, those are two names.
09:42I think for Boston, Pasternak is the name, but he's just too short.
09:48Yeah, and obviously, if you're going to bet a guy down the board, you know, some of those guys you
09:53just rattled off, like Norris at 22-1, you know, it's going to be maddening when Norris has, you know,
10:00three goals through four games.
10:01And then Pasternak or Thompson has a hattie in Game 4, right?
10:05It's just like you had a good bet, but then one of those guys had an outburst.
10:10I don't know if I sent you the hat trick bet.
10:13They're doing this at DraftKings.
10:14They're letting you – they're putting an over-under on the amount of hat tricks in the series, which is
10:21– I mean, look, you can – like I said, you can bet on anything these days, Mike.
10:24So the over-under for hat tricks in the entire series is 0.5.
10:28Yeah.
10:29So you either get one or you don't.
10:31And the over half a hat trick is plus 180.
10:35I don't – I feel like I should get a little bit more than plus 180, but the problem with
10:41that is that, like, most people that bet that prop are going to bet the yes.
10:44Like, they don't want to bet against the hat trick because that's no fun.
10:48The value is probably on minus 230 that we don't get a hat trick, but that's an interesting market because,
10:55you know, like, the better is wired to believe in goals and points and touchdowns and all that.
11:01Nobody wants to bet under on hat tricks, but I think under half a hat trick is probably a good
11:07bet, wink, wink.
11:08Yeah, and I could never do it.
11:10I'm right with you on that.
11:12Just give me the plus money side.
11:14One hat trick, somebody scores two, and they just feed them.
11:17Goalies are getting pulled earlier in games.
11:20That guy just dumps in a hat trick goal into an empty net.
11:23Yeah, easy to talk yourself into that.
11:26Anything out west you like?
11:30Like, so I bet a little Dallas at six to one to win the west.
11:35I text, as you know, I text with bookmakers in Vegas all the time, and I got three different texts
11:41from three different bookmakers at three different places, and they all said the same thing.
11:45And I hate when that happens, but it's true.
11:47They all said the west is wide open.
11:50And I'm like, well, if it's wide open, like, you know, these guys are telling me, like, don't bet the
11:56favorite.
11:57So I was looking at the board, and obviously Colorado's favorite, and they're very, very good.
12:02But I landed on Ottinger, basically.
12:05I think, you know, this is his time.
12:08Dallas has probably never been better in the last five years.
12:12So I looked at them, you know, they're five to one, they're six to one in the market.
12:16I think that's a decent bet, given the price.
12:21I'm not doing Edmonton.
12:22How do you feel about Edmonton?
12:23I mean, can they make another deep playoff run again?
12:27Yes.
12:28I don't know, man.
12:29You think they can?
12:30I bet they're not a great price because they're Edmonton and what's happened the last two years.
12:35But I love the path.
12:38Anaheim in the first round, okay.
12:41Maybe Vegas in the second.
12:43I think Utah is interesting in the West, but maybe Vegas in the second, okay.
12:47Those teams are not better than the Oilers at their best.
12:49And then if I get to the semis, I mean, I could even hedge, but I'm one, probably an upset.
12:57What would Edmonton be against the Avs or Dallas?
12:59You know, they'd be plus 150 to 200 maybe in that series.
13:03I'd be that close.
13:06Yeah, but the problem is, like, if you're a bookmaker, you don't want to give McDavid away a two to
13:09one.
13:10I mean, you're in the ballpark for sure.
13:11I would guess Colorado, a Colorado Edmonton series price is probably, like, minus 185 on the favorite.
13:20And then the dog is, like, plus 165 or whatever.
13:22But you're right there.
13:23I'm not trying to say that you're wrong.
13:26I just, man, like, two game sevens in the final in a row, like, that's a lot of hockey, man.
13:33I mean, it is.
13:35Again, as somebody who covered the Blackhawks, like, they were really, really good, 13, 14, 15, 16, and then it
13:40just all fell apart because these guys were just out of gas.
13:44So we'll see what happens.
13:45But I think given the fact that – sorry, given the fact that the bookmakers think the West is wide
13:50open, you can take a shot and you just pick your horse, whether it's Vegas or Dallas or Edmonton or
13:56Minnesota.
13:56Just pick the one you like and see what happens.
13:58You're right on the Oilers' point.
14:00They just don't play good teams in the first two rounds.
14:03So that's where I'm leaning.
14:06All right.
14:06I get it.
14:07Anything else?
14:08Baseball?
14:09Hoops?
14:10NBA playoffs?
14:11What's one more thing on your mind?
14:14The White Sox will kill me this year, Mike.
14:16That's the last thing.
14:17The White Sox.
14:18They will kill me.
14:18They are just – they're like 29th or 30th in every offensive category.
14:26And, you know, I was on the station, say bet the over, bet over 66 and a half.
14:31And I'm trying to stay optimistic, Mike, but it's pretty bad.
14:36It's pretty bad.
14:36That wasn't supposed to happen?
14:38The White Sox inability to hit?
14:40No.
14:40That wasn't supposed to happen?
14:41No, no, no.
14:42I would like them to be better than 29th and 30th in every important category.
14:45That would be crucial if we get there.
14:49You know, Sneaky Joe is starting to fall off the wagon again.
14:51And, like, you know, just – we got to string some wins together on the south side of Chicago.
14:55I'll be rooting for you.
14:57I have a little piece of that, too.
14:58Thank you, Sam.
14:59Have a safe trip home.
15:01All right.
15:01Thanks, Mike.
15:02See you.
15:02Sam Paniatovich, Chicken Dinner.
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