- 22 hours ago
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00:00Saw, you know, we're on YouTube now, so I saw a couple of clips, but I didn't even watch them.
00:10I mean, I just, like, Mike Shope says da-da-da-da-da-da-da, so I know, like, why
00:16are the Sabres being disrespected or something to that effect?
00:20That's what I was going to bring up.
00:21I know, I saw that, and then I saw a clip of you talking to Tyler about Josh Allen, but
00:25anyway.
00:27Yeah, the Sabres thing, I took a screenshot the last time I looked, I'm assuming you looked yesterday, thus the
00:33conversation.
00:37They're, like, in the middle of the pack, as of, you know, before the Cup was won.
00:43I haven't looked since the Cup was won.
00:4413th.
00:45I doubt it's changed.
00:46Yeah, okay, I saw them around there, like in the mid-teens.
00:50And I was kind of surprised by that.
00:54Well, I am definitely surprised, but I'm not yet not blaming myself.
01:00Okay.
01:01I'm not sure if I'm right to be miffed by it.
01:05That Anaheim in New Jersey had shorter Stanley Cup winning odds than the Sabres, I didn't quite get.
01:11And that Ottawa did by a lot.
01:13Right.
01:13What's Ottawa?
01:14That's the one.
01:15Well, they were done.
01:16Like, Anaheim, the strength of the conference, like, you know, like, Colorado's there, but maybe this is a way of
01:25looking at the West and going, everybody else is pretty much equal.
01:29Except for Colorado.
01:30So, you know, that might drive up a team like Anaheim's chance.
01:35But New Jersey, in the East, in a stacked East, in Ottawa, I'm not sure I can really rectify that.
01:40The Sabres were fifth in their own division in the odds.
01:43Right.
01:43By a distance.
01:45After winning the division.
01:46Yeah.
01:47Last year.
01:48I mean, I know everyone expects Alex Tuck to leave at this point, but could that really be why?
01:55That can't be why.
01:56It's got to be more.
01:58I'm not saying it's no factor.
02:00Maybe it's that coupled with, yeah, let's see if you can do this for another year in a row.
02:11Like, nice story.
02:12It wasn't just a hot month.
02:14You know, they were hot from December through, you know, into May, for crying out loud.
02:20So, that should prove something.
02:22But, I don't know, I'm trying to think of, like, how skeptical I would be if I were out of
02:26the market.
02:26You know, and had, you know, been impressed, but still, it's only half a season.
02:35I don't know, do you really, you know, can you really be counted on with Florida bouncing back?
02:42With, you know, whatever, with the staff division, I still think it's a slap.
02:49I feel slapped.
02:50So, and I'm not sure if I'm right either, because maybe some skepticism is warranted.
02:58But, maybe, there's always the franchise history piece.
03:05Or even if it's not exactly about Tuck the player, it might be more just the history of the Sabres
03:14is guys leave.
03:15So, one way or another.
03:18But, I don't know.
03:20So, it bugs me.
03:22Because, really, half a season, call it a full season, all 82 games, they finished first.
03:28You know, whatever the order was, they did that.
03:31They won their first round series, not in a sweep, but they were the better team in that series and
03:37deserved to win.
03:38And then, the second round comes down to one goal.
03:41If they win game seven, if the Malenstein goal counts.
03:44Is it different?
03:45I don't know.
03:46So, what, I sat here yesterday trying to figure it out out loud.
03:50Like, just what is it that they don't have that looks right?
03:55What looks wrong about them for them to be 28-1 when Ottawa is 16-1?
04:00And when Anaheim and New Jersey are 25-1?
04:03What's the problem?
04:04What's the gap here about?
04:07And I wondered if, this doesn't have to be it, but, like I said yesterday, I wonder if, like, they
04:16need a star that they don't have.
04:20Like, a star.
04:21That would probably matter to the betting markets and expectations if they somehow added, I don't even like Robert Thomas.
04:31I mean, not guys that just, like, hockey fans know, but somebody that even transcends that.
04:36Stamkos.
04:39McDavid, somehow.
04:40I mean, just, do they need that?
04:44Obviously, the goal of the organization is not to be, like, first in the odds.
04:49Right.
04:49The Bills are the champions of that.
04:51Right.
04:51And what's that been?
04:52I mean, that's been great, but there's no banner.
04:55That's not the goal of the organization.
04:57They're not going to try to do something this offseason that gets them up that list.
05:01But there's something about them.
05:03I think you can take these odds seriously enough to ask that question.
05:09What is it that the outside world thinks they're missing?
05:15To whatever extent, they're thinking about it.
05:18This is something that if people are actually betting on it and people who are making these odds, they would
05:23be thinking about it.
05:23It wouldn't just be at random.
05:25Well, I mean, I have a hard time believing that what happened to the Sabres 19 years ago,
05:40the last time the league saw the Sabres, I think as the level of contender they just were this past
05:49season, is then.
05:51I mean, I know they won the division in 2010, but I don't think, and I certainly do not remember
05:57what the odds were, because gambling was illegal then.
06:01Oh, the dark ages.
06:03But we know what happened after that.
06:06I mean, they won the President's Tour, they had the best season in the league, and then the co-captains
06:12left.
06:12So, like, is there a gambling, are they correlating, well, an alternate captain is about to be a free agent,
06:25he may leave, and they'll never recover?
06:28Or something like, is there, is that, I can't believe 20 years ago matters.
06:33No, me neither.
06:33Right, so I just wanted to talk it out, just so I could dismiss it, because I think it deserves
06:38to be dismissed.
06:38I do not think that that's it.
06:41Like, you know, you mentioned the reputation of the franchise.
06:44You know, we all know that.
06:45I don't think the people setting the odds are thinking, you know, they traded Lindy Ruff away after he was
06:53their captain.
06:54Like, I just, no.
06:55No, no, no.
06:56So, like, is Ottawa in a better position, actually, than the Sabres are?
07:04Does that make sense?
07:06No.
07:07No, it really doesn't.
07:09It really doesn't.
07:11Because they don't have, I mean, they've got a goalie who's won hardware in Allmark.
07:17They have that.
07:19But, you know, I don't know, what did that afford them any advantage this year?
07:23I mean, they got swept.
07:25You know, they played against a team that won the Cup, too, so, I mean, work that in there.
07:29No, that's the thing about it.
07:32Like, if Buffalo and Ottawa, and even Montreal, to an extent, Montreal won one more series than I did.
07:43If they were all sort of in the same, you know, area, I would understand it.
07:49Because they're all pretty, I mean, Ottawa's been in the playoffs now two years in a row,
07:53so I guess that gives them some leg up, at least as far as believing they can make the pool
07:59of teams in the playoffs again,
08:01because they've done it, they demonstrated they could do it two years in a row.
08:03The Sabres have not had the opportunity to do that yet.
08:07But I wonder how much of it is just that, just skepticism that congratulations on everything going right for you,
08:17and now go do it again.
08:19And we're not ready to believe that you just will.
08:22I don't know.
08:23I don't know what else to make of it.
08:24But it's been odd to me the minute I saw it.
08:26I'm not, usually you prompt me to go, have you seen these?
08:30But I looked, at some point after they got knocked out, I looked, I'm like, how in the world are
08:35they in the middle?
08:37I don't see this team as a team that should be in the middle of that.
08:40I don't think they should be the top favorite or anything, but lagging behind Ottawa that much is weird.
08:47Well, I guess this all adds up to that you should bet it.
08:51Right, of course.
08:52If we're right.
08:53It always ends there.
08:53And, you know, they won't win the Stanley Cup and we'll lose.
08:58But that's normal, objectively, that's what I would be thinking here is, you know, who's good value.
09:03But you can get twisted up.
09:05Like, why wouldn't, again, a division winner with that, like, that result, playoffs included, get more respect than this?
09:16I mean, Alex Tuck is fine, but I can't believe he would be meaningful to this, really.
09:22You can, and this is with or without making it about the odds.
09:27I mean, just in our conversations about this, you could like the Sabres just as much for who they have
09:32coming than what they would be losing in him.
09:35You could think that it's a net positive.
09:38You could.
09:38Yeah, I wouldn't necessarily agree out of hand, but yeah, you could.
09:42Sure.
09:44Anaheim.
09:45I don't know, yeah, I don't know what to really make of it.
09:47What's Anaheim?
09:48Anaheim is, there are, there's nice young pieces there.
09:54San Jose's got more of them, but I think Anaheim, I think both of those teams are coming.
09:59But I don't see them as better bets than the Sabres.
10:03Ottawa 16-1.
10:05Buffalo 28-1.
10:07Toronto 40-1.
10:08The Sabres are, by numbers, as close to the Leafs as they are to the Senators.
10:13I mean, did this year even happen?
10:16Right.
10:16Like, I don't know.
10:19As a fan, like yourself, I might just be a little bit too close to the sun.
10:25Like, try to, but I just objectively struggle to understand it.
10:29Do they need a star?
10:30Do they need something?
10:32Whether that's for the odds or just for the team.
10:35What is it that they're supposed to do?
10:38Nah.
10:39Well, I mean, keep asking.
10:42Wade is next.
10:43Hello.
10:44Hello.
10:45Oh, well, regarding the Sabres odds, is it not just as simple as analytically and statistically
10:50they overperformed?
10:51I mean, you had a, I don't know the analyst's name, but you had him on a couple of few
10:55times
10:55and over and over he's saying, you know, they're scoring a lot of goals and not a lot of shots.
10:59Goaltending overperformed.
11:01As we see, they had the worst goaltending in the playoffs.
11:03And then Ottawa, just their goaltending was horrible.
11:06So, yep.
11:09Maybe that might be as good a guess as any.
11:11Yeah.
11:12Greg Wyshynski, I think you're thinking of, who made like the first time he was on, once
11:17they got good, he was sort of, I don't want to be this guy, but, and then that softened
11:22a little bit.
11:22But it was always kind of still there, that they were on a PDO heater, basically.
11:26Which is shooting percentage plus save percentage.
11:29Right.
11:30So if you're over 100, you're, you know, not everybody likes to put it this way, but you're
11:36lucky.
11:37Because there's a lot of luck in those stats.
11:40And the Sabres were fourth in the league.
11:43They were the fourth luckiest team by that.
11:46Five on five.
11:48If you want to call it that, the least lucky team by the same metric was New Jersey.
11:56And that's a team above them in the cup odds.
11:59I don't know.
12:01Maybe.
12:01I didn't think it was that dramatic for me.
12:05And I'm somebody that looks at that every year, even when the Sabres are not in it, which
12:10is most years.
12:12I want to see just maybe simply for betting purposes or for the pool that I run, like
12:17just, all right, well, it was Washington.
12:19Was it last year, even?
12:21Washington.
12:21Where, like, I don't see this going well in the playoffs.
12:25And maybe they won a round, but then went out.
12:27Like, they just, they're, those teams, it's usually a pretty good track record.
12:31They did, they did.
12:32And I bet against them going, even winning a round.
12:34Okay.
12:35I mean.
12:35Because of what you're saying.
12:36I thought that's not a good team.
12:38All year, I thought that's not a good team.
12:39Those teams tend to be, A, bad playoff bets, and B, their coach wins the Jack Adams award.
12:47Because the, you know, the benevolent hockey broadcasters don't understand, somehow, this
12:55element.
12:55I mean, Greg did.
12:57I think it's really hard.
13:00Like, the problem with the, like, the PDO heater theory to me is that I have a hard time
13:07settling for five or six months is a heater.
13:11You know, like, I think at some point you just sort of stop waiting for that to drop
13:18out and go, okay, they shoot, they're more selective in their shots.
13:23Therefore, they're not getting as many shots.
13:25Therefore, their shooting percentage is higher because they're good.
13:29They're talented.
13:29They're beating the goalie when they have those selected shots.
13:34And to me, like, that doesn't, it can be fluky, but I don't think, this is where we could run
13:40into, like, you said, how'd you say, we're too close to the sun?
13:42Like, maybe we just aren't objectively seeing it.
13:46But I just, I have a hard time believing, oh, it was, you know, like, the 10-game win streak
13:52in November back in 18 or whatever that was.
13:56Like, it was fluky, it was overtimes, it was shootouts, there was, and even as it was
14:02happening, we were loving the excitement, but also, like, I don't know, this is going to
14:08be sticky, and it turned out, of course, it wasn't, and we all know that now.
14:13This was, like, okay, December, January, yeah, February.
14:18It just kept going, and I just, maybe it's an all-time heater, the heater to end all
14:24heaters.
14:25I think it's probably that they were good, but maybe there is skepticism about it because
14:34of, you know, that notion, that, you know, they had the goalies performed above their
14:40head, the playoffs sort of right-sized that, and when it did, they went out.
14:46I don't know.
14:47That's a little flimsy to me.
14:48They don't seem to respect that Zach Benson led the NHL in postseason penalty minutes.
14:54Right.
14:55They don't seem to care about that.
14:56They don't seem to prioritize that.
14:58Who was the only saber to shoot 100% in the playoffs?
15:09I really, I really, I happen to have the playoff stats page open, but no, I'm not, I only see
15:15the top six names, and there's no way somebody on that, that high.
15:20So, one shot on goal, one goal.
15:22I'm trying very hard not to, well, so who's, who's, who scored that was not, I don't know.
15:31You'll get it if I give you the time.
15:32You'll get it.
15:33You'll think of it.
15:34Yeah.
15:34Just tell me.
15:34Metza.
15:35Oh, okay.
15:36Right.
15:36Game six in Montreal.
15:38Sure, right.
15:38For 8-3.
15:39Yes.
15:39Right.
15:40One shot, one goal.
15:41Again, he's over here going, I mean, I could have helped you.
15:44Right.
15:45Right.
15:45I only score literally every shot I take.
15:47Yeah.
15:48Just, you know, maybe next year, you'll, why don't you think of that next time?
15:51No.
15:53Well, the odds, again, and we've said it, are just a way into the conversation about their
15:59roster.
16:01Whether you want to use them or not, how do they move forward and become a team that wouldn't
16:09be 13th in the odds after being whatever they were in points.
16:13What were they in points?
16:15I mean, top five.
16:17Yeah.
16:17Oh, yeah.
16:18Yeah.
16:18109 points.
16:19Yeah.
16:21So, there is some sort of a disconnect.
16:24They were fourth in points.
16:26Okay.
16:27Colorado, Carolina, Dallas, Buffalo.
16:29Fourth in points, 13th in the odds with mostly, if not entirely, the same roster.
16:35Maybe, you mentioned goaltending a couple times, so did the caller.
16:39He said worst goaltending in the playoffs.
16:41Is that actually literally true?
16:43Goals saved above expected took a hit in the playoffs for them.
16:47I don't know where they ended up, you know, and what metric he's even referring to, but
16:51I think they did not hold up to the standing that they had during the regular season.
17:00I mean, it's way up there, if not number one, on the list of interesting aspects of this
17:06offseason and what they want to do, because they have three goalies under contract, and
17:12the question is always, for me, how did they think it went?
17:16Did it go well enough?
17:18It's one thing to say, it's easy to say yes in terms of the season overall.
17:25I mean, again, fourth in the league in points.
17:28How could you complain about anything, really?
17:33But now we're talking about winning the Stanley Cup, and the odds and the chances of doing
17:38that in a very tough, historically tough division, they might not think that they are good enough
17:44there.
17:45It's one thing to say that was, it definitely was, I think it was a strength of theirs this
17:51year.
17:51The numbers tell you that during the regular season.
17:54But yeah, do they talk themselves into a, well, yeah, that was great, but we're trying
18:03to do something better than just have a great regular season and be second and 10th or whatever
18:09they were, Lyon and Lucan and respectively, and goals saved above expected or whatever.
18:16The thing you're maybe going to be confronted with right away is that you just watched Carolina
18:23win the Cup with basically Colton Ellis.
18:26I mean, Bussie is older, which maybe even in a way makes him more of a long shot to ever
18:33get the shot he got.
18:34But he got in there, and it wasn't just that he got in in the playoffs.
18:38I mean, he led them in wins during the regular season, which nobody saw coming, but injuries
18:43happened and they had a guy step in and got hot.
18:46And even with that, it took them until injury, that was performance and then injury, I guess,
18:53right?
18:53I mean, Anderson got pulled, Bussie took over and never came out.
18:57And then it later was revealed that Anderson was ailing.
19:00So I don't know which came first.
19:02Doesn't matter.
19:03He got in, and so if I'm the Sabres, and I don't know, even Vegas, I mean, Carter Hart
19:11has pedigree.
19:12He was a first-round pick and was, you know, thought to be kind of a phenom.
19:17And then, of course, his career had been sidetracked.
19:20But he jumps in and, you know, rides them all, you know, or they ride him all the way
19:26to the final.
19:27So, I don't know, do I need, like, these playoffs, I don't think, tell you, you need
19:33Connor Hellebuck on your team.
19:34This is always the question.
19:36You know, you could think you need to be better than what you had, but really it was just a
19:44different guy that's at the level your guys are at, or below even, and it works.
19:51So, yeah, I mean, I don't know where they're going to come down on it, because to me, Kekalainen
20:01could want to just swing really big, I don't know, for anything.
20:06It might be his style to do so.
20:08And it might even be his style that, like, you know, well, I want to do this.
20:13Okay, I can't do that.
20:14I want to do this.
20:15I can't do that.
20:16And maybe Goalie is, like, third or fourth on the list.
20:19But one and two crap out, maybe you get to, well, all right, you know, let's package up
20:25some stuff and get a 34-year-old $10 million goalie in here and see what happens.
20:30I mean, I'm making it sound pretty willy-nilly here, but I could see them getting there, even
20:36with it being a strength.
20:38You know, the overall, on the year, goaltending made a positive difference for them.
20:45Are their guys movable?
20:48Easily movable?
20:49Is Lukanen movable?
20:50I think Lyon is very movable.
20:53Me too.
20:54He played above his level, and he's getting paid peanuts.
20:59So, to me, that's easy if you wanted to do that.
21:02Lukanen, I don't know.
21:04Lukanen is some version of, all right, our $5 million guy didn't work.
21:09Let's try a different $5 million guy.
21:11And that happens in the league, change of scenery, whatever, we'll support him better,
21:16I don't know.
21:17So, the contract isn't unreasonable, I don't think.
21:22Lyons is desirable, I would say.
21:25I agree.
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