- 4 hours ago
Tekanan baharu melanda pasaran global apabila ekuiti, bon dan kripto jatuh serentak, mencetuskan persoalan sama ada dunia sedang berdepan kitaran biasa atau perubahan struktur kewangan yang lebih mendalam. Dengan Bitcoin susut sekitar 30 peratus daripada paras tertinggi lewat 2025, pengetatan kecairan, leverage yang tinggi dan ketegangan geopolitik semakin menguji ketahanan kripto serta kedudukannya dalam sistem kewangan global yang rapuh.
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00:00Global markets are under renewed stress, with equities, bonds and crypto falling in tandem,
00:05a combination that remains relatively rare and unsettling for investors.
00:10Bitcoin, which traded above US$120,000 in late 2025, is now down roughly 30%,
00:16moving increasingly in step, with broader risk assets as liquidity tightens.
00:21Leverage across the system remains elevated,
00:24and geopolitical tensions continue to inject volatility into energy and capital markets.
00:30So against this backdrop, key questions are emerging about whether markets are facing another cyclical downturn
00:36or something more structural in nature, and how crypto fits into a financial system grappling with macro-tightening,
00:43geopolitical shocks and growing concerns around systemic risk beyond digital assets.
00:48So to unpack what this moment really means for investors, we speak to Aaron Tang,
00:53the General Manager for APEC at Luno. Good morning, Aaron.
00:57Good morning, Nabila. Thank you for having me.
00:58No problem, and thank you so much for joining us on Yagawani this morning.
01:02We see that markets are volatile across equities, bonds and crypto, and that is rare in itself, like I mentioned
01:08earlier.
01:08So is this just another cycle, or are we looking at a deeper structural reset in the global financial system?
01:15I'm definitely not ready to say it's a structural reset,
01:18given that we have actually seen this kind of things before.
01:21So I'll take you back to 2008, 2020, and so on.
01:25I would say that it is not uncommon for actually in times of crisis and volatility,
01:30where we see equities, bonds, and more recently, crypto moving together,
01:36given that there is a state of fear in the market.
01:38So I wouldn't say it is a structural reset or anything.
01:41Rather, it is part of the market cycle, but it has been amplified by geopolitical shocks.
01:48Yeah, and I think everyone's very, very worried around the Iran conflict, the Israel-Lebanon conflict.
01:56So I think in more recent days, we have seen that with more positive news coming up,
02:01but the market has also been reacting accordingly.
02:04And at the same time, we see that Bitcoin is down roughly 30% from its latest 2035 highs above,
02:13$120,000,
02:14and it's actually moving closely with risk assets.
02:17So can you share to us, does this crisis weaken the digital gold narrative,
02:22or this is just a temporary correlation? Aaron?
02:25It's certainly a really, really good question.
02:28So for many years, people were saying that Bitcoin is digital gold,
02:31that in times of crisis, people would actually be stocking up on gold,
02:36on Bitcoin crypto assets instead.
02:39However, what we've seen more recent times, especially in the short term,
02:43is that Bitcoin digital assets have perhaps acted as more of a risk asset, number one.
02:49And number two, it could be that people are actually selling out of digital assets
02:53because of the fast liquidity that you can actually obtain from digital assets.
02:58So because markets trade 24-7, it is actually quite easy,
03:02quite fast for people to move in and out of digital assets and crypto.
03:05Now, very interestingly, we also see some movement in gold.
03:12So at the start of the Iran war, gold was actually performing better.
03:16And since then, it's been down roughly, I think, 8%.
03:20So in that sense, the gold narrative also is quite interesting
03:24because you would imagine that in times of crisis, people are actually stockpiling gold.
03:28But what we've seen is that central banks and people were stockpiling gold before.
03:32And when at the start of the conflict, people were actually selling gold
03:35because perhaps they needed the funds in the times of fear and crisis.
03:40So again, I wouldn't say that this has weakened the narrative,
03:44but rather we've seen that Bitcoin and digital assets may actually act like,
03:49some people are calling it like an ATM.
03:51They're actually being able to move in and out of it very quickly.
03:54And I think very, very positively, we've also seen that although gold has been trending downwards,
03:59Bitcoin is actually up roughly about 12% since the start of the Iran war.
04:03So at this moment, I'm not ready to say that Bitcoin is not digital gold,
04:09but rather it is very, very clear that Bitcoin is an asset diversifier.
04:13It is very clear that it acts very, very independently at times versus other asset classes.
04:20Aaron, thank you so much for that.
04:21But let's touch on the macro spillover.
04:24How exposed is crypto to the same macro forces hitting traditional markets
04:29when we see that global leverage reportedly exceeding $18 trillion
04:33and also liquidity tightening?
04:36What's your thoughts on that?
04:38Definitely, as the asset class has evolved over the years, Nabila.
04:42So, you know, Bitcoin came around 2008, 2009.
04:45It's been roughly, what is it?
04:48It's getting into the almost the 20-year-old mark, right?
04:52It has become more and more correlated with macro situations, macro effects.
04:56So that, you know, whether it is interest rates,
05:00whether it is lending, borrowing in the market, leverage and so on.
05:04So it definitely has become more and more correlated
05:07and it is very, very exposed to these macro factors.
05:10Now, the thing about Bitcoin and crypto, I would say,
05:12is that it is very, very much more reactive
05:15or rather it reacts to a higher degree
05:18than some of the other asset classes that we have seen before.
05:21So right now with Middle East tensions pushing energy volatility higher,
05:25are markets today being driven more by geopolitics than fundamentals?
05:30And how should crypto investors read that?
05:34Definitely, in the short term, I think everyone is thinking about geopolitics, right?
05:38You know, from every, I think from the most seasoned investor
05:42to the average person on the street,
05:43it's very hard to go one morning or one day
05:46without actually wondering what's going to happen with the conflicts
05:49and, you know, everyone hopes for peace.
05:51However, I would say that in the longer term,
05:54fundamentals are still very, very important.
05:56While geopolitics may be the short-term driver,
05:59fundamentals are going to be the long-term driver.
06:02So how are crypto investors supposed to think about this?
06:06I think we cannot escape the fact that in the short term,
06:09it's going to be driven a lot by sentiment around the ceasefires,
06:13what is happening in terms of the conflicts.
06:17And then if you rewind back actually about six months,
06:19maybe one year or 18 months before,
06:21actually all the thinking of short-term was around trade wars, right?
06:25So that's definitely going to take all the attention in the short term.
06:28However, I think if we look for longer-term signals,
06:31things like institutional adoption of digital assets
06:34or a lot of movement around stable coins and regulations around the world,
06:40these are some of the longer-term fundamentals
06:42that crypto investors should be thinking about.
06:45Let's talk about risk.
06:46We see that concerns are rising around private credit,
06:50shadow banking, also AI-driven asset bubbles.
06:52So is this meltdown really about crypto
06:55or actually a symptom of deeper fragilities in the global system?
07:00Yeah, I wouldn't call it something that is driven by crypto, definitely.
07:04I think these are broader questions around the economy.
07:08Is there too much leverage in the global economy?
07:12Institutions taking up too much risk and so on.
07:14So I would say definitely it goes way, way, way beyond crypto.
07:18Crypto is perhaps displaying just some of the impact
07:21on the broader questions.
07:23And people have been watching the AI, the lending sectors and so on.
07:29And I think the good thing about the conversations
07:32that are happening today is that
07:34people are actually asking those questions, right?
07:37It's not like we're in a state of euphoria
07:39and everyone is overconfident.
07:41Everyone is thinking that we're going to be good
07:43for the next 5, 10 years indefinitely.
07:45So it's good that people are asking those questions
07:47because it means that we are taking a serious look
07:50at our financial system.
07:52And hopefully we can avoid some of the mistakes
07:55that happened in perhaps 2008, 2009.
07:58So throughout all of this kind of volatility,
08:01rebounds can be misleading as well.
08:02So what key signals should investors watch now
08:06to actually distinguish a real recovery
08:08from a temporary bounce, Aaron?
08:11I think definitely, again, the short-term thing
08:14is, you know, whether the conflicts are reducing,
08:18whether we are looking at peace,
08:19whether we are looking at a more stable
08:22geopolitical situation, because, again,
08:24that's pulling all the air out of the room
08:26that's sucking all the short-term attention.
08:28If we talk about longer-term real recoveries,
08:32there are a couple of things that are quite unique
08:34to crypto.
08:35So, for example, we can look at the funding rates
08:39or rather how are investors positioning
08:45their positions on long versus short.
08:50We can look at actually miners.
08:52So Bitcoin miners, crypto miners,
08:54these are companies that are contributing
08:56towards the security of the crypto ecosystem.
08:58We can look at what they are doing.
09:00Are they accumulating assets
09:02or are they selling the crypto assets
09:04very, very quickly?
09:05We can also very, very clearly look at leverage,
09:08the amount of leverage in the crypto ecosystem.
09:11So that's the amount of open positions and so on.
09:15More broadly, I think very, very,
09:18very, very applicable
09:19across all investment asset classes,
09:21not just crypto, right?
09:22But definitely we should be looking at interest rates,
09:25long-term, what are central banks doing?
09:27And I think also the other angle to look at
09:29is institutional flows,
09:31something that we've spoken about,
09:32but crypto ETFs, so Bitcoin ETFs,
09:34there's so many right there,
09:36out there right now.
09:37And I think, you know, crypto ETFs have become
09:39the best performing ETFs ever in the history of ETFs.
09:43Now, if we continue to see institutional accumulation
09:46in crypto ETFs,
09:48I think that's a very, very positive sign
09:50over the long term.
09:51One more question, Aaron.
09:52If crypto is no longer behaving as a clear hedge
09:55and is instead correlating with broader risk assets
09:58during stress periods,
09:59how should institutional and retail investors
10:02rethink crypto's role in portfolio construction
10:05over the next perhaps three to five years
10:07as an insurance asset,
10:09a high beta growth play,
10:10and also maybe something else entirely?
10:14Yeah, definitely.
10:15I think it's definitely not at the stage
10:18where we're ready to say that crypto
10:20is acting 100% like a hedge, right?
10:22I think there are multiple angles
10:24which you have rightly pointed out.
10:26Is it a risk on asset?
10:27Is it a hedge against inflation and so on?
10:30So I think we're still in the teens
10:34of the Bitcoin and crypto growing up.
10:37It's very early to say that,
10:40crypto is going to behave 100% as a hedge and so on.
10:43So I think the short answer to that
10:46or my view is that
10:47we're looking at it being part
10:49of a diversified portfolio.
10:51Now, each institution or each individual
10:53can definitely consider their risk appetite
10:56whether I'm hedging into digital assets
10:59a 1% or 5% or 10% allocation.
11:02But I think thinking about it
11:04as an asset class diversifier
11:07or part of a portfolio,
11:08I think that's the very, very powerful way
11:10to look at it.
11:11And it's not just about,
11:13okay, this is going to be the bullet,
11:15a magic, magic silver bullet
11:16to solve everything.
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