00:00The impact, it goes way beyond the Gulf countries, even to the whole world.
00:05And what we have seen so far is really the tip of the iceberg, you know, in terms of impact.
00:10Yet the full-fledged impact is coming, and it's not coming far away.
00:15I think in one month, two months' time, you're going to see really a huge, you know,
00:19economical impact globally as a result of this war.
00:24That's Qatari Finance Minister Ali bin Ahmad al-Khawwari saying
00:28the full global economic impact of the Iran war is still ahead.
00:33Joining us now is Linda Robinson, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
00:38Linda, thanks so much for your time today.
00:40And I know that one of your axioms is that one certainty in war is uncertainty, unpredictability.
00:45So do you have any scenarios for how this plays out
00:49as we're hearing reports of a possible extension to the ceasefire?
00:53Yes, well, thank you.
00:54And the one bit of good news is there is still a tenuous ceasefire.
00:58And there hasn't been a return to war, but I think the situation is very uncertain.
01:07Obviously, a ceasefire is needed if a diplomatic resolution is going to come about.
01:13And it will probably need to be a prolonged ceasefire because the parties are so far apart.
01:18And the hard work of diplomacy is really to start to identify the areas where you can move ahead
01:24and get some confidence building through reaching some early partial agreements.
01:30What we've seen to date, I think, really is a lack of delving into the complex details in the nuclear
01:38file,
01:39in the missile file, in the proxy warfare file.
01:42And sweeping demands just aren't going to get the job done.
01:46And meanwhile, with a blockade in place, I think there are new risks.
01:50So we have to look at potential complications and escalation as a blockade if it does continue to be enforced.
02:01Yeah, let's talk a little bit more about one of the key sticking points, which is, of course, Iran's nuclear
02:07ambitions,
02:08the whereabouts of its uranium currently unknown.
02:12But do you feel as if the events of the past few weeks have really underscored Iran's desire to have
02:18a nuclear deterrent in the first place?
02:21Well, I think you look at it from their point of view and they feel it's the ultimate safety guarantee
02:29for them.
02:29And that's certainly why I think they've been pursuing it for all of these years.
02:33But to get them off of that track, there has to, I think, be some very hard bargaining to really
02:41understand what kind of security guarantees,
02:45especially following, you know, some of the statements made by the U.S. president about wiping out their civilization.
02:52So I think it's really time to calm down and get to some of the brass tacks, which you mentioned
02:58the uranium.
02:59Of course, there is an estimated 970 pounds. Its locations are known. It's buried.
03:05But getting it out will be very difficult. And I do not believe it's a militarily viable project without great
03:13risk and great casualties.
03:14So I think really people need to understand that's going to come about through a negotiated agreement.
03:21And Iran having, by some reports, you know, Iran was really prepared to start talking about some of the specific
03:29details to get back to a signed agreement.
03:32And I think that is where, as they said about Russia, trust but verify, there really need to be very
03:39detailed talks by experts who understand the technicalities
03:43and what's going to be required to have a verifiable agreement.
03:46So this is a very long road. I think a two-week ceasefire will not get you a deal.
03:52You have to really plan on months of negotiations.
03:55And meanwhile, the straits should not be blocked, but they also, a naval blockade will be very difficult to enforce,
04:02in my view.
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