00:00Let's get back to our top story with Mona Yacoubian, who's a senior advisor of the Middle East program at
00:05the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
00:07But first off, just give me your kind of first reaction to this ceasefire.
00:13Are you hopeful, optimistic? Are you cautious as to how this is going to play out?
00:19Well, very cautious, but also hopeful that we're not where we feared we could be, which was really falling into
00:27the abyss of uncontrolled escalation.
00:30Things were really looking pretty serious, pretty dire in terms of where the conflict could go.
00:37And so in that regard, of course, this is a welcome reprieve.
00:41But I think a lot is going to have to be learned in the 24 hours, because really both the
00:48U.S. and Iran are spinning this in a way and sort of in a way calling victory.
00:54And yet there are some significant differences.
00:57And the one that I would point out that is most significant is the Iranians saying they will allow free
01:03passage for the next two weeks through the Strait of Hormuz, but in coordination with Iran's armed forces.
01:12If the U.S. agrees to that, that is that is a huge concession to Iran.
01:19There's a lot of uncertainty. Some of it is also around what happens with the Iranian proxies as well.
01:25Right. There was a statement saying that Lebanon would be part of this.
01:28How easy is it going to be to negotiate the proxy activity into such a deal?
01:34And how aligned would Israel be in terms of the cessation of hostilities?
01:39Well, the word coming out of the White House this evening is that the Israelis are absolutely respecting this this
01:45ceasefire.
01:46However, I've heard no mention of Lebanon.
01:50And so it could well be that a Lebanon is on its own trajectory.
01:54And it would frankly surprise me significantly if the Israelis stand down on their offensive in Lebanon.
02:02So my fear is that that will continue.
02:04I think what we may have avoided in the short term is the possibility of other proxies, namely the Houthis,
02:12getting involved.
02:13And there was concern that if the escalation continued on the path that it was on, you could see the
02:19Houthis jump in and work to block the Bab-Lamandam Strait, the other key choke point in the region there.
02:27And that would have had an even more significant effect on energy market disruption.
02:35Mona, ahead of this conflict, the president encouraged the people of Iran to rise up against the regime, saying they'd
02:42have no better chance than this.
02:44Well, has there been any evidence of that happening?
02:47Or do you feel like the theocracy now is more embedded than ever?
02:51No sign of popular uprising.
02:54Quite the contrary.
02:54I think we're seeing the Iranians undertake additional executions, continue to use coercion.
03:00And frankly, some of the rhetoric and the attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure has had a galvanizing effect, where you're
03:10seeing almost a rallying around the flag in Iran against these attacks.
03:15In terms of leadership changes in Iran, you're absolutely right.
03:19I mean, we've gone from Ayatollah Khamenei to Ayatollah Khamenei, the son of the previous supreme leader.
03:27I think what's notable is that, if anything, the assessments are that this regime in Iran, this rump regime, is
03:36even more hardline than its predecessor.
03:38And that actually, it's the Iranian, sorry, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that has even more power than was the
03:47case before February 28th.
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