00:00The Middle East has been in a period of incredible turmoil for at least a century, especially following the collapse
00:10of the Ottoman Empire.
00:12So what we're seeing today is really a continuation of this cycle that has been going on for many decades
00:21now.
00:22It's intensified, it's quiet for periods of time, but it has been largely in this period of disquiet and unrest
00:32for a long period of time.
00:33And of course, as you know, Persia is not Arab, but they have a significant influence on parts of the
00:41Arab world,
00:41especially through their ties to the Shia communities and their support under this ideological Iranian regime for non-state actors
00:53like Hamas, Hezbollah, so including non-Shia groups.
00:57When you look at Iran and you take it from the span of the 79 revolution to the horrific war
01:04with Iraq and the balance between the theocracy and maybe a middle class in Iran,
01:11where does the theocracy of Iran place right now versus the military that seems so dominant?
01:18That's a great question. And that still has to shake out a little bit.
01:24Prior to this war, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the defenders of the revolution, if you will, have had the
01:32upper hand in the Iranian decision making process.
01:36And that has only been strengthened through this war.
01:39The campaign of assassination, the taking out of the supreme leader, who is a theocrat, the chief theocrat, if you
01:46will, in Iran, has been replaced now by his son, who's still untested.
01:52And what we've seen is that the IRGC is in a more dominant position.
01:56So the hardliners have been strengthened through this war, and we have to see how this shakes out and whether
02:03the theocracy and the clerics will actually take more of a, not a backseat,
02:10but maybe not having as dominant a position as they once did in the past.
02:15Ambassador, can you give us an assessment of the memorandum of understanding? What's your view?
02:20Sure. I think it's not a very good deal, but I think it reflects a reality, a reality of a
02:29war that was started on faulty assumptions.
02:32The assumption that Iran was so weak following those massive protests, which killed thousands of innocent protesters, that a quick
02:41military operation could essentially either topple the government or force it to capitulate.
02:47And neither of those things happened.
02:49So a war that started on that premise actually has resulted in an Iran that is in a stronger strategic
02:55position.
02:56And this memorandum essentially will, for 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, restoring it to the way it was.
03:04After 60 days, it seems to contemplate the potential for Iran to collect fees.
03:10And if Iran is unhappy with us at any time, they can continue to regulate the flow of traffic.
03:17It's not necessarily an on-off switch.
03:19And they're getting a significant amount of upfront sanctions relief, which will undercut, I think, the leverage that the administration
03:27will want for the second phase of this deal to get into the nuclear discussions.
03:33So I guess that begs the question, it seems like we're no better than we were before the war, maybe
03:40worse off if this strait is now weaponized in the future.
03:44How does the U.S. move from here?
03:47That's a good question.
03:48We are worse off.
03:50I think Iran certainly has been set back in terms of its conventional military capabilities, its defense industrial base.
03:57But the United States has now lost two key pieces of leverage.
04:02It's the use of force is no longer credible because we've shown the limitations of that.
04:07Iran has withstood this powerful assault.
04:09And the oil sanctions, which were our most powerful piece of leverage on the sanctions front, those are being waived
04:18at this point.
04:18And so what we have to go back to is really the drawing board and what the administration can offer
04:25now to get to that nuclear deal that we all want to see to constrain their program and to prevent
04:31them from getting a weapon is essentially incentives, incentives of over $300 billion in a reconstruction fund.
04:38And we have to try to rebuild our alliance structures as well, which are in bad shape in many parts
04:45of the world.
04:46Ambassador, to expand this from the Arab Spring in Tunisia, in Cairo, and bring it over to your Morocco, where
04:52you were our representative in Marrakesh and in all of the kings of Morocco.
04:59How does this war destabilize Morocco and Mohammed VI?
05:12Well, Morocco, I don't think, is fundamentally destabilized by this.
05:17Morocco is actually, this is our 250th anniversary we're going to be celebrating this year.
05:21It's actually a moment to remember that Morocco was the first country to recognize American independence.
05:26So this is an old, longstanding relationship.
05:30Morocco is an incredibly stable country.
05:32It's one of two countries in Africa that has reached investment grade status.
05:37And it's going in a great direction under a very progressive king.
05:40Now, that said, they're having some influence from this.
05:45What we're seeing is that sulfur, for example, which is necessary for fertilizer exports, the biggest export earner for Morocco,
05:53those have been affected.
05:55And as a result, Morocco's fertilizer exports will be hurt this year.
06:02Moreover, Morocco is no friend of Iran.
06:04They've broken relations with them twice.
06:06They actually have no relations right now.
06:08Part of that goes back to the fact that they actually hosted the Shah after he was overthrown.
06:14And so they have no love lost.
06:17And they're probably very concerned, just like many other allies in the region, that Iran is apparently emerging from this
06:24in a stronger position.
06:25They want to see Iran put in a corner and not have the ability to expand its tentacles all across
06:34the region.
06:35They want to see Iran put in a corner and not have the ability to expand its tentacles all across
06:35the region.
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