- 4 days ago
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Now, Pakistan's newfound role as a Middle East peacemaker is seen as a setback to India's strategy to marginalize its
00:06rival.
00:07For more on this, let's bring in Bloomberg's Manika Doshi in Mumbai.
00:10Manika, how's this being viewed in India?
00:16Well, has any efforts at peace and a resumption of energy trade and other supply lines through the Middle East
00:24region
00:24obviously comes as good news, not just to India's economy, but so many other countries' economies
00:30that have been held hostage in the last month because of this war.
00:34Now, that's the first-order effect, and I'm sure the Indian government appreciates that.
00:38I think the question you're asking is about the second- and third-order effects
00:42in terms of the impact both on what this means for how Pakistan is viewed across the world
00:47and what this means for India and its relationship with the U.S.
00:51Now, obviously, if Pakistan has any element of success in brokering peace in this situation,
00:58it burnishes Pakistan's reputation and in many ways weakens India's case against its neighbor
01:05for allegedly sponsoring terrorism and other hostile issues that have persisted for decades now.
01:13The second bit is that Pakistan has always had the year of the U.S.
01:17But if it succeeds in this effort, does it have more sway then with U.S. President Trump,
01:23especially Pakistan's Army Chief, Munir?
01:26And what does that mean for how the U.S. views India?
01:29Remember, we still have a trade agreement that's pending fire.
01:35Manika, please do stick around.
01:37Let's get more from our next guest, who says,
01:39who is a widely recognized expert in South Asian geopolitics.
01:42Let's bring in Michael Kugelman, non-resident senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation.
01:47Michael, good to have you with us.
01:48I mean, when you take a look at what's happening right now, has Pakistan, in fact, outplayed India?
01:56Well, I mean, it certainly seems that way, right,
01:58in the sense that Pakistan is being lauded across the world for having contributed to bringing about this critical truce,
02:07whereas India has been fairly quiet.
02:09It has not really been active at all in these peace facilitation efforts.
02:12But I think that we need to look at this with a bit more nuance in the sense that India
02:17never really had an interest in trying to be a mediator.
02:22So it's not like Pakistan pushed India away from an opportunity to do something big.
02:26I would argue that India, unlike Pakistan, does not really have good relations at the moment with the key belligerents.
02:33India's relationship with the U.S. has been shaky over the last year, and its relations with Iran, quite frankly,
02:38could be better.
02:39Not to mention, India's diplomatic approach is much more cautious than Pakistan's,
02:44in the sense that it would not want to proactively position itself as a mediator,
02:48unless it's actually formally asked by the warring parties.
02:52And clearly, India was not asked to play a mediator role, and it was quite all right with that.
02:57And the final thing I'll say here is that it's very clear that if Pakistan is successful in getting some
03:04type of broader peace,
03:06if peace returns to the Middle East, that's obviously a really good thing for India,
03:10in part, for one reason, is that India is deeply embedded in the new and emerging geoeconomic architecture of the
03:16Middle East.
03:17It's involved in the I-Meek corridor.
03:19It's involved in the I2U2 quad.
03:21So India could really benefit in a big way from any effort on the part of Pakistan and other facilitators
03:27to produce a wider peace in the Middle East.
03:31The thing is, India has been wanting to be the leader of the global south.
03:36Given its position in this Iran war, can it be?
03:39I mean, can it be both to the world?
03:45I think this is a bit of an uncomfortable truth for India.
03:47I mean, you're right. India has actually been competing with China for the mantle of advocates of the global south.
03:55But India has a very rapidly growing relationship with Israel.
03:59And, of course, Prime Minister Modi was in Israel meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu just before the war started.
04:06So, I mean, for one thing, Iran would likely not see India as a neutral interlocutor at this point.
04:12But I would argue that if you look across the global south, there's pretty strong sentiment against the war,
04:18against what Israel has been doing in Iran, and also against what Israel has been doing in Gaza.
04:24So I think that's a bit of a challenge for India as it looks to try to maintain that status
04:31of serving as an advocate for the global south.
04:34It's going to pose a challenge for sure.
04:37It's not just a global south, though, Michael.
04:39I mean, we had India signing a letter of intent with the Emirates, wanting to be a critical defense partner.
04:45So where is India when there's trouble in the region?
04:50I mean, India has not been completely silent.
04:52I mean, it has quietly been engaging with its many partners in the region.
04:56And, you know, there's been a lot of commentary about how Pakistan is well positioned to play a facilitation role
05:01because it has close ties with all the key players, including the GCC states.
05:06I'd argue that India has even closer ties with the GCC states than Pakistan does these days in certain contexts,
05:13particularly with the UAE.
05:14As you mentioned, India also has very close ties with a number of countries in the Middle East, including those
05:20that have formal relations with Israel, such as Egypt.
05:23So, you know, I think even if India has not been, you know, active, it hasn't been in the news,
05:28it hasn't been serving in this facilitation role, it is still a key player in the Middle East.
05:34And that will continue to be the case no matter what Pakistan or other countries do with facilitation.
05:40And in particular, if we do get peace in the Middle East, and certainly that's a big if at this
05:44point, India would continue to be a very active, critical player because it is an influential actor in the Middle
05:52East.
05:52Not to mention, I'd argue that for India, the Middle East is probably one of the most important regions for
05:58its interest in the sense that some of its closest partners are there.
06:01It's got critical energy and economic equities there.
06:04There's several million Indian expatriates that are based in the Middle East, particularly in the Arab Gulf states.
06:11So, you know, India will still continue to be a player and a presence.
06:15But absolutely, in the context of the India-Pakistan rivalry, India comes out looking not too good relative to what
06:21Pakistan is up to these days.
06:25I'd like to probe that a little bit more, Michael.
06:28You know, I was reading an interview that Bloomberg's Michelle Hussain did with Malika Lodi, the former Pakistani ambassador to
06:35the U.S.
06:36And she interestingly said that this course of events over the last few days has helped Pakistan establish itself as
06:43a middle power, which has the capacity to influence, if not shape international politics.
06:49If this is burnishing Pakistan's reputation, whilst peace is good for everyone, what does a more emboldened, ennobled Pakistan mean
06:59for India?
07:01Well, I mean, this is clearly a blow to India.
07:04I mean, as I said before, on one level, what Pakistan is doing is good for India, because India would
07:09benefit from an end to the war, just like so many other countries.
07:13But at the same time, India, for quite some time, one of its strategic goals has been to undercut and
07:20indeed sideline, if not isolate, Pakistan on the global stage.
07:24And yet right now you have the absolute opposite of that, right?
07:27Pakistan is in the global spotlight.
07:29And for good reasons, not for bad reasons.
07:32You know, it's been in the global spotlight a lot over the last few decades, many times because of really
07:36bad things like Osama bin Laden being discovered on Pakistani soil.
07:40So I would argue that certainly this is a strategic blow for India, what Pakistan has been able to do
07:46and, you know, how prominent it's become.
07:48And the fact that it has been able to showcase the fact that it is a serious country that has
07:54agency and is able to exert influence, considerable influence in the Middle East, a region which is very important strategically
08:02for both Pakistan and for India.
08:05But again, India's own global significance and importance is not going to change no matter what Pakistan is doing.
08:13As I said before, India is deeply embedded in this changing Middle East with these new developments, including IMEK and
08:19I2U2.
08:20That will be able to come into force more so if peace returns to the Middle East.
08:28Michael, you know, just following up on that, India's relationship with the U.S., specifically Prime Minister Modi's relationship with
08:35President Trump, has been, you know, touchy over the last year, year and a half.
08:40How does, what implication does the events of the last few days have on that relationship being able to mend?
08:49We do have a trade deal that's still pending.
08:52And, you know, I'm wondering if Pakistan now has more sway with the U.S., especially the army chief.
08:59Yeah, this is a this is an important point.
09:01I mean, one of the reasons why the U.S.-India relationship has gone south over the last year is the
09:07fact that the White House, including President Trump,
09:10has so openly embraced Pakistan, including the Pakistani army chief and the fact that this started to happen just after
09:16the India-Pakistan conflict last year has upset India even more.
09:21And here it's very clear that the White House continues to look to Pakistan as a key player.
09:27And the fact that the U.S. has been comfortable with Pakistan playing this facilitation role, the fact that, or
09:34at least according to reporters in recent days,
09:36that the U.S. had specifically been pushing Pakistan to put together some type of truce proposal.
09:43This is going to reinforce for India the fact that the White House is really embracing Pakistan.
09:51And when you're talking about a country embracing Pakistan, that means that the country is embracing the Pakistani military
09:56because it's Pakistan's military and its army chief that really drives foreign policy.
10:01So absolutely, this is not going to help the U.S.-India relationship.
10:05You're right, there is a trade deal, but it's sort of on hold because of the Supreme Court decision in
10:09the U.S. about tariffs.
10:11It is notable that India's foreign secretary has been in Washington the last few days having a number of meetings.
10:17And I think that's meant to work toward strengthening relations at a moment when that relationship has stabilized a bit,
10:24not just the trade deal, but also the new U.S. ambassador to India, Sergio Gore, who's very close to
10:29President Trump.
10:30He's a close aide. He has come to New Delhi with this message of positivity.
10:34He has tried to repair relations. And I think that the visit of the foreign secretary was meant to build
10:39on that momentum.
10:40But, you know, given what's happened over the last few days with the White House clearly behind Pakistan,
10:44working with it very closely on this high stakes peace process, that's not going to go down well in New
10:50Delhi.
10:51So, Michael, this will fundamentally shift South Asian politics.
10:57And, you know, just to follow up on Manika's question, I mean, what does an emboldened Pakistan mean?
11:02How might it use its new position in the region?
11:09Yeah, well, I mean, Pakistan is, unfortunately, it does not have many, many friends in its own region.
11:14I'm not only talking about India here, but, you know, we have seen over the last year or so,
11:19Pakistan has been able to take advantage of or leverage political change in Bangladesh to create an opening for improving
11:26relations with that country.
11:28It also has fairly friendly ties with Sri Lanka.
11:30I think that Pakistan may try to leverage where it is now to try to reach out to other countries
11:37in its own region,
11:38which would be so critical for Pakistan's trade and economic interests.
11:41There's very little trade within South Asia among South Asian countries.
11:45It is not just because of the India-Pakistan problem.
11:47So that's something that Pakistan might do.
11:49I also think Pakistan will continue to try to build on, ride this momentum that it's enjoying now to deepen
11:57its influence even more inside the Middle East.
12:00So, again, what's critical is what happens over the next few days, right?
12:04If Pakistan is actually able to host the Iranian and American representatives and actually get a permanent peace,
12:10now that would really put it in a big place.
12:12If it's not successful in that effort, that would be a setback for sure.
12:17Okay.
12:18Michael, I want to turn inward for the last question.
12:21You're watching the important state elections, you know, play out in India.
12:24We're still only in voting stage.
12:26The peculiar thing about strongman politics, which is the kind of politics that Prime Minister Modi and President Trump and
12:33so many other leaders tend to play nowadays,
12:35is that if you're weakened on one front, you tend to double down on the other to protect your image.
12:41How do you see this playing out in terms of Modi's local image protection?
12:49Yeah, well, this is such an important thing for Modi, and, you know, he's been in office for quite some
12:55time.
12:55He continues to be arguably the most popular political figure inside India, and, of course, he and his party were
13:03reelected for a third term,
13:04but the margin of victory was not what many had expected.
13:08But, look, I mean, you know, the position that we're hearing or that I'm seeing from those that are supportive
13:15of the government or close to the government is,
13:17well, look, it's best to stay out of what's going on with the facilitation process.
13:21It's complex.
13:22It's messy.
13:23You don't want to get dragged into something that can get ugly.
13:25Just sit back, see how it goes, and move on from there.
13:28And, you know, Modi still has a very large base, of course, and I think that many of his supporters
13:33will take that position
13:35and just conclude that it's best to just sit back and watch and hope that peace prevails
13:39and that India can go back to, you know, being that key outside player in the Middle East,
13:46given its close ties with many in the region.
Comments