00:00What's the latest?
00:02Hi, Paul. We've got a bunch of recommendations that range from mid-cap stocks to rare earths to gold, of
00:09course, high-grade corporate bonds.
00:12And, you know, in our sort of, how do I put it, out-of-the-box recommendation is a proposal
00:19to invest in a music library.
00:21Now, like I said, gold is pretty much on everyone's recommendation list, even now, and we are four experts in
00:28that piece,
00:29which is a very popular read here in India.
00:32But otherwise, the strategies seem to range from, let's be cautious, there are challenges yet, and the other side is,
00:41the worst is behind us.
00:42I have someone from the former camp, Bhatik Ambani.
00:45He's the CEO of AlphaGrep Investment Management, and, you know, I think he is advocating a significantly cautious stance.
00:55Why is that, Bhatik?
00:56Your portfolio strategy, as quoted in the piece, is not exciting, not flashy, but sensible.
01:03Thanks. Thanks, Minka, for having us here.
01:06See, to be honest, what we are seeing today is what is being told to us by our data.
01:12We are a quant-focused house, so data speaks a lot more to us, and we just follow what the
01:16data tells us.
01:18To a certain extent, what we can make out of this data is, at this point in time, we've had
01:23a phenomenal run over the last few years in the Indian markets.
01:27And to a certain extent, we believe that the valuations have kind of run ahead of its time.
01:31Even now?
01:32Even at this point of time, like, we just heard Alex.
01:34You've seen a significant time correction.
01:35We have.
01:36We have.
01:37Having said that, we just heard Alex, right, saying that we've seen this 350 earnings growth go up by around
01:4210%, but we're still paying more than 20 times for that.
01:47The other anecdotal data is, if you think about it, you're still having foreign investors either not putting in money
01:53in Indian markets, or they're still going to pull out, right?
01:55So, in some sense, you're seeing professional investors not look at Indian markets yet, right?
02:01Bulk of the emerging markets have continued to do well, despite that India has been lagging the entire 2025.
02:08And I personally believe, or at least our data tells us, that we're going through some kind of a regime
02:12change, a structural regime change in the markets.
02:15And that's thanks to what we're seeing globally.
02:17What does that mean, a structural regime change?
02:19Structural regime change is, you know, when you are seeing fundamental changes in the market, which can be thanks to,
02:25let's say, policy changes globally, we are seeing divergence around that.
02:28We are seeing divergence around what we're seeing with metal prices, right?
02:32We had seen like a phenomenal, like we had seen a long period where metals didn't do well in India,
02:37or even global markets for that matter.
02:39In the last couple of years, we've seen them do well, including coal, silver, and a lot of other non
02:44-precious metals as well.
02:45We're potentially going into a phase where we might see a structural bull run in the metal space as well.
02:51So, if that's, you know, and geopolitics, right?
02:54Like, we're in the midst of it right now.
02:55Yes, we woke up to the Iran headline this morning.
02:58And oil prices much higher.
02:59Precisely.
02:59So, there are multiple things which are happening out here, which can potentially redo some kind of a regime change
03:04in the markets, right?
03:05Now, when something like that happens, what one tells you is that whatever's kind of working in the last few
03:11years may not be the same, which will kind of continue to do well going forward.
03:14Okay, let me get a little bit more specific.
03:16You mentioned two things, valuations and the return of foreign investors, which is yet to happen, only happening on the
03:21margin.
03:22But they are, in some sense, you know, sort of contrary to each other, right?
03:26Because if foreign investors do come back, in fact, prices will only just go up.
03:31And so, your valuation argument then gets defeated.
03:35So, what would you prefer or what would you like to see change for your position to become more aggressive?
03:41Let's say on equities, which right now you're recommending should be just 20% of the portfolio.
03:45Yeah, yeah, yeah.
03:46So, I think, see, from our perspective, we can change some of these chances very quickly, right?
03:51So, it's not that we're only looking at fundamentals.
03:53So, the way our model works.
03:55So, what needs to happen in the market to change for your stance to change?
03:58Sure, sure, sure.
03:59So, again, like I'm saying that from a market perspective, what we would like to see is, you know,
04:04some kind of convergence between where valuations are today, right, and with where the prices are, right?
04:10So, if that converges to a certain extent, then that will probably make us change our valuation or change our
04:15stance in terms of taking a higher allocation to equities.
04:17Because, at least our model tells us today from a disparity perspective, you know, fixed income is making more sense
04:23compared to equities, you know, as per a model.
04:25And that's the reason we are more tilted towards fixed income compared to equities as per a model.
04:30Okay.
04:30In equities, you've recommended relatively safe plays, large cap, you know, stocks, and safe mid-cap.
04:37Right.
04:37You know, some of the other conversation in that story seems to suggest that consumption might be a good place
04:42to be in.
04:43Is that something that you see reviving significantly?
04:46Okay.
04:46So, consumption, to be honest, hasn't done well, that well in terms of, you know, price move.
04:52We've seen a lot of other sectors which have done well in the last few years.
04:55So, that is something which is a safer bet to take at this point in time and may kind of
05:00do well going forward.
05:01And one of the triggers for that is obviously the GST cuts that we've seen a few months back.
05:06Right.
05:06So, that can lead to that.
05:07So, what do you like in equity?
05:09Very quickly, because I want to ask you a quick last question on that.
05:12Sure, sure.
05:12So, from an equity market perspective, today, we would just, you know, stick around.
05:16I mean, like, I'm not taking a sector bet here right now.
05:18Okay.
05:18I would just stick around with more large cap names or safer bets at this point of time.
05:22All right.
05:23A quick final question on debt.
05:2460% allocation is what you've recommended.
05:27Again, another recommendation seems to suggest one to five-year high-grade corporate bonds is where your money should be.
05:34Is that how you're viewing it?
05:36Very similar.
05:37I would stick around with, you know, AAA names, safer bets at this point of time.
05:41Like I said, you know, overall view is cautious.
05:44I think it's not stemming from what's happening in India, but I think it's what we're seeing globally as well.
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