00:00Sam, it does appear the prediction markets ended up doing OK here.
00:05And maybe because of the fact that they offered a better VIG potentially than some of the other sports betting
00:12options.
00:13That does make a ton of sense.
00:16Yeah, it's been really interesting to see these numbers roll in off March Madness.
00:21First, with prediction markets like Kalshi reporting just the sheer total volume they took on the tournament.
00:26Kalshi took about one point eight billion dollars on March Madness, which includes it includes season long futures bets as
00:34well.
00:34So, you know, that's placed before the tournament.
00:36But if you look at that one point eight billion figure, that's about three times what it took on the
00:41U.S. presidential election a few years ago, which is its most traded market.
00:46And about the same as the total platform volume it took in all of 2024.
00:51So a ton of trading activity on Kalshi.
00:54I'll note, though, that the trading volume that these prediction markets report is not entirely the same as the handle
01:01that a sports books report because, you know, the handle is pure total dollars wagered while the trading volume is
01:10more a contract that can be traded multiple times.
01:12So we're still kind of trying to figure out how exactly this all matches up to the sports book stuff.
01:17But citizens had a really interesting note about the pricing, which you mentioned, Craig, specifically on game winner markets or
01:24money line markets and game total markets, you know, over under on how much points is scored in one game.
01:30And it found that Kalshi had the best pricing on those markets in about 47 out of 67 total tournament
01:36games compared to sports books like DraftKings, which I think only had the best pricing on about five or 17
01:42rather.
01:43And FanDuel only had the best pricing on about five.
01:46So Kalshi beating the sports books on prices on, you know, really active games this time of year.
01:51But really important to note, too, that that's not player props.
01:54That's not spreads or the other markets that are really popular on sports books.
01:59You know, I think these markets are only about, I would say, maybe 20 percent of total activity on sports
02:05books.
02:06And we've really seen nothing so far in the seven and a half years of legal sports betting to suggest
02:11really that customers actually care about these pricing pricing differentials.
02:15I think for Kalshi, it would mean, you know, if you bet one hundred dollars, you maybe save seven dollars
02:20on a bet versus DraftKings or FanDuel.
02:23And as you know very well, Craig, customers don't really care about that.
02:26They kind of only care about same game parlays and long shot bets, which are at least the majority of
02:32customers that are on these sports books and the ones that these want to hold on to.
02:36So it'll be really interesting to see how Kalshi moves forward with this kind of activity, especially as we round
02:41over into football season.
02:43You know, they're obviously trying to trying to develop their same game parlay product as well.
02:49But some interesting stats so far from March Madness.
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