00:00legalized sports betting slowing down across the country and prediction markets taking their hold
00:05in this i wonder in terms of the projections just how much more money will be bet on march
00:11madness this year considering we may have wisconsin which is a story i think for a little
00:14bit later for us to discuss uh you know it's kind of been slow though with the legalization
00:18of sports betting over the last year or two yeah craig the american gaming association which
00:24tracks this stuff is projecting about 3.3 billion dollars in handle on this year's tournament which
00:30is a lot of money it would be the most money ever on march madness which as you mentioned is
00:35the
00:35second biggest betting event behind the super bowl it's actually the largest you know multi-game
00:40multi-day event because there's you know tons of games played uh but that's only up about six percent
00:46from last year which obviously that's an increase but when you look at the past couple of years you
00:51over the past three years it's been up about like 50 percent almost every year give or take so
00:56we are really starting to see that slow down and we're anticipating it with march madness this year
01:01you know obviously you don't have as many states going online you know gone are the days when you're
01:06adding 10 states every year so the numbers would inflate that way and you mentioned prediction
01:10markets taking money as well one firm hg gambling capital estimates that they'll add about another
01:16500 million dollars uh in bets on prediction markets but of course prediction markets report
01:22volume which is different than handle so it's hard to equate that into exactly how much more money
01:28you know would be moving over to prediction markets or not you know draft kings and fandle have
01:31certainly talked a lot about how prediction markets are you know they're saying are not taking
01:37away their business and they've blamed the handle slowdown largely on you know just winning so much in
01:43the nfl and not giving customers promos back enough so it'll be really interesting to see you know
01:48whether or not we actually do have a huge spike in betting this year or you know how the prediction
01:52markets really play into this into this whole case it'll be a really interesting tournament obviously
01:57last year i think was like one of the most chalky tournaments ever books got absolutely hammered uh all
02:04all uh four number one seeds made the final four for like only the second time ever so books only
02:10held
02:10about six percent on the tournament last year which we talk about hold rates you know usually they want
02:15to hold about eight to twelve percent on the tournament historically in the nfl this past year
02:19they held you know about 15 in some cases so uh they're expecting another chalky tournament this
02:25year which you know could mean a lot more favorites advancing a lot more of those money line parlays
02:30that people like to bet on march badness where you get better odds on a lot of favorites advancing
02:35so books will be rooting for the cinderellas as they always do but i think it's really interesting
02:39that you know the couple traders i talked to said that we're expecting another chalky tournament you
02:44certainly have you know a team like arizona is now the the favorite at some sports books duke is
02:49you know the open is a favorite as well they're really dominant michigan florida so another kind of
02:55theme of a lot of really top heavy uh tournament teams a lot of dominant teams that are expected to
03:00make a big run and if you look at the the first round matchups even i think this is the
03:06first year
03:06that you have uh all five number or all number five seeds are favored by at least eight points
03:12or more so that kind of just goes to show you how you know things might be changing in college
03:17basketball i think his last tournaments was that a one-off where or in this new nil era where you
03:24have really just the top teams are filled with the best players is this just kind of the new normal
03:28where there's no cinderellas so um but you're really interesting to see how that unfolds the rest of
03:35one uh the biggest liabilities at a couple sports books but so far all the betting has really been
03:40concentrated again on those those top four favorites
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