00:00And as that Trump deadline approaches, joining me now is a special guest, Jason Greenblatt,
00:06former White House Middle East special envoy joins me.
00:09Appreciate you joining us there, Mr. Greenblatt.
00:11Your first reaction, what are we likely to get from Donald Trump in a few hours from now?
00:18What's your expectation?
00:20I don't think the Iranian regime is going to come up with something that will be even close to what
00:26President Trump is expecting.
00:27I think it's not in their style.
00:29I don't think they're interested in surrendering.
00:32And I think President Trump is serious that if he doesn't get anything that is workable,
00:37that he could try to negotiate into a deal that makes sense for America, for the world, really,
00:42I think he's going to proceed with the attacks that he's threatening in terms of infrastructure
00:47and anything that remotely can help the Iranian regime continues to succeed in threatening the region and in threatening the
00:55world.
00:55So you're saying there's absolutely no chance you see even as this deadline approaches of a negotiated settlement that could
01:03come or at least a temporary ceasefire?
01:06I think only if the Iranians realize, excuse me, how serious President Trump is and come up with a serious
01:14proposal.
01:14What they proposed before was completely unserious.
01:18It had no chance of ever succeeding.
01:20If they're smart and they want to actually continue to rule the Iranian people, they need to come up with
01:28a deal that makes sense,
01:29even if it's not 100% what President Trump is asking.
01:32But I don't see the Iranian regime doing it.
01:34But the point, Mr. Greenblatt, is the 15-point plan that Donald Trump had put out effectively was seen by
01:42many Iranians or the Iranian government as a surrender.
01:45And Iran is not willing to surrender.
01:47So obviously, in any negotiation, there has to be some give and take.
01:51Is there a possibility on the American side, you believe, of some willingness to concede a few of the points
01:58that the Iranians have made,
02:00particularly an assurance that there will be no further strikes?
02:04I don't see how President Trump could assure them that there will be no further strikes while they remain a
02:09threat.
02:09So when they came back with a proposal that suggested that America and Israel would have to pay reparations to
02:16them
02:16and that Congress would have to approve and the UN would have to approve and that they'd control the strait,
02:21it was a complete lack of seriousness.
02:24So unless they're going to come back with a proposal that completely gives up their ability to threaten the world
02:29with nuclear arms,
02:30and they come back with a proposal that makes sense on the missile threat,
02:34I don't think we have a chance at stopping the attacks tonight on Iran.
02:38So is it about the missile threat and Iran's nuclear capability, Mr. Greenblatt,
02:43or is it about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, because that's what the president has been also calling for,
02:48is Strait of Hormuz on the table, because the Iranians have made it very clear.
02:53They're not going to open the strait.
02:54In fact, they're saying they could even close the strait in the Red Sea using the support of the Houthis.
03:02Right. So I think it's all three.
03:04I mean, the nuclear threat for sure.
03:05And at the moment, anyway, the nuclear threat is not an immediate emergency,
03:09because whatever nuclear material they have left is buried underground.
03:13The missile threat remains real, while the U.S. and Israel have done a tremendous job
03:18destroying a lot of that capability, and the Arab nations in Israel have done a great job
03:22defending against that capability.
03:24It's clear they still have missiles.
03:26But the strait is an immediate issue, essentially for the world, much less for America,
03:32but even still for America.
03:34And most of the world has tremendous trouble because of the strait.
03:38So I do think that the attacks tonight are going to be moving toward figuring out
03:43how President Trump can reopen the strait, no matter what he says about how it's more Europe's problem.
03:49I think Europe is not, I think, let me just finish.
03:52I think Europe is not standing up.
03:54I think the Europeans are being cowards, and President Trump sees it as his role
03:58to help open it to save the world.
04:00You're saying the Europeans are being cowards.
04:02On the other hand, the Europeans could well turn around and say they do not want to participate
04:06in what they see as war crimes, attacking civilian infrastructure, power plants, bridges,
04:13the Israelis targeting railway lines.
04:15All of this is seen by many as war crimes.
04:17Do you believe that that doesn't bother the Trump administration a bit?
04:23I think journalists, and sorry, I'm sure this isn't you,
04:26but journalists in America that are saying that are being very silly, right?
04:31The United States, like India, is a nation of laws.
04:33There is no way that the United States would knowingly commit war crimes.
04:38And President Trump is not interested in committing war crimes.
04:40But it is a war crime, so sorry to interrupt.
04:43It is a war crime to target civilian infrastructure.
04:46It is a violation of the Geneva Convention, or these conventions no longer matter.
04:50There's a Trumpian world war, a world order where a rules-based order doesn't matter, Mr. Greenblatt.
04:56No, it's much more complicated than how you're shortchanging the law.
05:00If those civilian infrastructures are also used to advance war, everything has to be looked at in the complete context
05:08of what it is you're attacking,
05:09how you're attacking it, what it is that it does towards Iran's war aims.
05:13This kind of thing can't be done in a tweet by a journalist, an op-ed in the Wall Street
05:19Journal or the New York Times.
05:20There are teams of lawyers looking at this material, and there's no way that President Trump would knowingly violate, would
05:28knowingly commit a war crime.
05:30Absolutely insane to suggest that.
05:32But Mr. Greenblatt, at the end of the day, to find a solution, many believe both sides would like to
05:39claim victory.
05:40Do you see, how do you see the Americans, what will constitute victory for the Trump administration?
05:46A complete capitulation, a regime change, a complete surrender?
05:52So, I don't think President Trump really cares about whether the Iranians could claim victory.
05:57I think what President Trump cares about is making sure, and he's said this, and his administration has said this
06:03time and time again,
06:04that they're not going to be a nuclear threat, that they're not going to be a missile threat, that the
06:10Strait of Hormuz is opened.
06:11Of course, there would be a bonus if there's a regime change, but that benefits the people of Iran, and
06:16the United States is not into the business of regime change.
06:20If it happens, that's terrific, really terrific for Iran, but that's not the primary goal of this operation.
06:27But how do you win the, you know, negotiated settlement requires trust.
06:33Even as we speak, Karg Island has been bombed, as I said, railway lines have been targeted.
06:38Why should the Iranians really trust America, and especially Israel?
06:43It's not just America, it's Israel, which also is pursuing its own agenda.
06:46So, how do you restore trust, given all that has happened over the last month?
06:51In war, that's always hard to restore, but if the Iranians want to keep their country, want to be able
06:56to actually rule, what is it, 90 million or so people, have a successful country,
07:04then they have to realize that they can't stand up to the United States of America and threaten the world.
07:09If they're not interested in that, and they want their bloodthirsty theocracy to continue to rule over the Iranian people
07:16and threaten the world,
07:17trust doesn't matter, because they're just going to do whatever they have to do to try to stay alive.
07:21That, by the way, is what I'm afraid of.
07:23I think they will do everything in their power just to stay alive, to continue to threaten the world, and
07:29subjugate the Iranian people.
07:31So, what you're telling me, you expect a further escalation in the next few days?
07:37I do.
07:37Okay, Mr. Greenback, for joining me there and giving us a perspective in a sense that reflects perhaps the views
07:45of the Trump administration in particular,
07:47thank you so much for joining me on the show tonight.
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