00:00Two economists have given mixed reactions to Bank Negara Malaysia's GDP projections
00:05for 2026, with the central bank forecasting growth of 4% to 5% despite the fallout from
00:11the war on Iran.
00:14Alvin Dasfiandi, chief economist at the Center for Market Education, said the projections
00:19may be too rosy, especially the top-end forecast of 5% GDP growth, while Ahamad Kamil Maidin
00:25Amira of University Sultan Aslan Shah said the target was realistic and achievable.
00:31Dasfiandi said the upward revision may have come too early, warning that the Middle East
00:35conflict had disrupted oil and liquefied natural gas supplies and could create a major shock
00:41by affecting external demand, freight costs and market confidence.
00:45While government interventions for fuel would protect domestic spending, he said this would
00:49only work as a stabilizer rather than an economic catalyst.
00:53Meanwhile, Kamil expected GDP growth to be buoyed by Malaysia's standing as a huge net
00:58exporter of LNG, a factor which enables the nation to have a net surplus in the oil and
01:03gas sector.
01:05Earlier, BNM Governor Abdul Rashid Ghaffur said investment expansion, resilient domestic spending,
01:11tourism strength and export demand were expected to drive growth, with the projections already
01:16accounting for various scenarios linked to the Iran war.
01:19On inflation, Kamil said it would likely exceed BNM's projection of 1.5% to 2.5% due to
01:26higher fuel, food and fertilizer costs, while Dasfiandi said the forecast was more plausible
01:32because of Malaysia's buffers, namely its standing as a net energy exporting country, the ringgit's
01:38strong position and government interventions.
01:41Janie Shra Nietzsche抓 Malımerische Reza, FMT.
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