00:00Now, Trump's move against Iran raises questions about his rationale
00:04and seems to contradict his promises to avoid new wars
00:07and keep energy prices low for Americans.
00:10Political calculations could now shape what he does next.
00:17The same guy who had been championing priorities like
00:22no new wars in the Middle East, low oil and gasoline prices,
00:26low inflation, giving the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates.
00:30How can that same guy then go and act so precipitously
00:34in the Middle East, starting war with Iran,
00:37that could have such adverse effects for all of those priorities
00:40through rising energy prices?
00:43And markets are still trying to figure out the extent to which
00:46he's going to stick with this plan and see it through to unconditional surrender,
00:50as he put it, or maybe take another look and decide to declare victory.
00:55And if we keep on pushing above $100 a barrel and get more toward like $110,
00:59I think you're going to see that nationwide up price average
01:02get close to $4 a gallon.
01:05That's painful for consumers, and it's probably also painful
01:08for elected leaders, the politicians.
01:10We're also going to see higher prices in things like airfares.
01:15So travel will become more expensive.
01:17And then we also have to worry about the second order effects
01:20on things like the equity markets.
01:22So if people's stock portfolios are going down,
01:25their 401ks are less valuable than before,
01:28we're going to lose consumer confidence
01:30and maybe even business spending.
01:32That points us in the direction toward a possible recession.
01:36So thank you.
01:38You
Comments