00:00What's your reaction to that? That is a stunning number.
00:02It is a stunning number, and last month it was stunning in the opposite direction.
00:05I think we have to appreciate that there has been a tremendous amount of volatility.
00:09Some of it, of course, has to do with the strikers coming back.
00:11But even when you smooth through the data, we're probably in an environment
00:15where the trend in payrolls is somewhere between $15,000 and $70,000.
00:18The unemployment rate will probably bounce around between $4,300 and $4,500.
00:21And it's an economy where the labor market is largely stable.
00:24It's not picking up significantly this month and after having significantly weakened last month.
00:29It's probably just an environment that's stable with a lot of volatility.
00:32Is this a stable, tight labor market or a stable and loosening somewhat labor market?
00:38I would say it's probably stable and slightly loosening.
00:40I don't think it's tightening, but we're in an environment where it's fine.
00:46Over the summer, you might start to see a little bit more loosening
00:50because that's when you tend to get people come into the labor market after they finish school.
00:54And it's an environment where it's very hard to absorb new entrants,
00:56especially those that are younger in nature and tend to be competing with AI.
01:02Is the composition of these jobs positive?
01:04Does it matter?
01:06I mean, there is some broadening out, as Mike was saying,
01:09in some of the jobs that are being created.
01:11But really, again, the focus on health care and education, really significant.
01:16Also, we're not seeing the wage growth that people had expected.
01:19It's 0.2% average hourly earnings month over month versus a 0.3% expected.
01:25Does that indicate that this won't be able to offer the wage kind of increase
01:29to offset consumers' ability to absorb the oil price shock?
01:34Yeah.
01:35I mean, I think it tells you that it's in a labor market that is not hot or overheating.
01:39It's an environment where you're unlikely to get inflation coming out of the labor market,
01:43which is what tends to be durable inflation.
01:46So that allows the Fed to be a little bit more easy than would otherwise be the case,
01:51given where the data is.
01:52And by the way, when you're talking about the mix of hiring,
01:55our expectation is you'll start to see slightly more gains coming from the cyclical parts of the economy.
02:01Last year, that was held back by trade uncertainty.
02:03So this year, you'll probably see more gains coming out of leisure and hospitality
02:06and construction and manufacturing.
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