00:00Your take first on the jobs number, what do you make of the U.S. economy now looking at 4
00:04.4% unemployment?
00:08So, it's interesting the way you phrased it, and thanks Matt for having me on.
00:11So, I think U.S. economy is doing fine.
00:13I actually think U.S. economy, I was just looking at the numbers before coming down here,
00:17I think we're going to grow 2.5% to 3% first quarter growth.
00:20The economy and employment are quite different conditions today.
00:23We have a productivity revolution.
00:25We talk about it, you know, people were encouraged last month, you had 137,000 jobs last month,
00:30but 130,000 were in health care.
00:32You strip out health care, we have no hiring.
00:35So, I looked at the last next nine months, and you strip out health care the last nine months,
00:41total jobs in the country is negative 358,000, negative 358,000, stripping out health care.
00:47We're going to keep hiring health care workers, even though today this number was a little bit softer.
00:52Again, last month was really strong.
00:53We're going to still hire health care workers because the population is aging.
00:56We looked at a metric, people 65 and above.
00:59We haven't even kept up with that rate of growth.
01:01A friend of mine was showing me that.
01:02So, we're going to keep hiring health care.
01:04The problem is we're not hiring other people because there's productivity going on.
01:08And it's not AI hasn't really kicked in yet, but productivity.
01:12I mean, you see this.
01:13You know, I read tons of earnings reports.
01:14You look at what companies are doing.
01:16Run your business more efficiently.
01:17Keep your top line in a reasonable position and get your cost infrastructure down.
01:22So, point being, you know, I think, by the way, economy is fine.
01:25And then, but it's, you know, for the people, dynamic is harder.
01:29And it's part of why I believe you need to have more policy to help impact that.
01:33You know, it's interesting, Rick, over the last, I've been doing this for 25 years plus.
01:37And we always say the markets are not the economy because there can be times when the people on Main
01:42Street are feeling pain and equity indexes are doing just fine.
01:47But what you're saying now is that jobs are not the economy, which is a little bit more concerning for
01:51those on Main Street.
01:54I mean, I listen, I mean, I have a strong view that, you know, there's a, we have a, there's
01:58a problem in that, you know, what people describe as a K-shaped economy.
02:02I think we have a problem today in what are particularly routine oriented jobs, low income, is having a really
02:08tough time today.
02:09The aggregate economy, because you've actually got part of the economy, you've got CapEx and certainly data center infrastructure center.
02:16CapEx is in very solid shape.
02:17And then you've got consumption that's being held up because you have a cohort that's actually still doing well, which
02:22is older, higher income.
02:24But we have, we have what is a continuing and even a growing bifurcation that I think, and by the
02:30way, you know, I think some of the initiatives you heard from the administration on affordability,
02:33things of that ilk will help.
02:36Listen, I think the Fed, I know we've talked about before, you have a near-term dynamic around energy shock,
02:41a supply shock.
02:43You know, I still think the Fed, I think we still have to get the mortgage rate down in this
02:46country to get labor mobility moving, to get housing moving.
02:50And so I think there's some initiatives to try and stabilize what, quite frankly, is a bit of a concerning
02:54dynamic today.
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