00:05Hello and welcome, I'm going to see you in Good Returns.
00:08I'm going to you with your name, I'm Irnima Dhavadi.
00:10Donald Trump has today in the US, the whole country, the whole USA, the whole country, the whole country.
00:17This is the first time of Iran war.
00:19Donald Trump has the first revolution in the US, the whole country, and the whole country, the whole country, the
00:40whole country, the whole country, the whole country, the whole country.
01:10This is the first time of Iran.
01:11The second one big ciekhmm is that the масс of Iran, whether you lack ofronome sribe想, the whole country she
01:15wants, the whole country, the whole country.
01:19And that UPS would not like Iran to único away.
01:23So though the Trump saying that America, it won't be a cause of an суд, something like that, but the
01:26Sunroaf Mund sipping on therait of the news is that Trump will be very bad.
01:26This is a big complaint from Donald Trump.
01:28The third complaint is that they will not make any deal with Iran.
01:33They will not make any nuclear bomb.
01:36This is a big complaint.
01:40Crude 1-105-106 dollars.
01:431-105-106 dollars.
01:441-105-106 dollars.
01:471-105-106 dollars.
01:491-105-106 dollars.
01:551-107 dollars.
02:01Prof.
02:06Aroon Kumar, senior economist.
02:08Welcome to Good Returns.
02:11First question is Donald Trump's statement.
02:14We have opened the statement.
02:17We want to know about this issue.
02:42I think this is an important issue.
02:50So, that's why I will withdraw.
02:56Boots on the ground is also being sent.
03:02The Airborne Division is also being sent.
03:06I feel like boots on the ground is also being sent.
03:09One of them will say that they don't open the hormones straight,
03:12so you can do it.
03:13So, you can say that it is very difficult to say.
03:18But the result of this is,
03:20that the energy of the country or the world is greatly increased.
03:24So, when you see the energy of the stock market,
03:27or crude market, or other markets,
03:30because people don't know which country will go,
03:32which country will go, which country will go,
03:34which country will go, which country will go.
03:35So, when you see the energy of the country,
03:38you see the energy of the country,
03:40actually 19th and 9th and 14th
03:41So, that will increase the crisis when we have to work.
03:46The обсermation of Lagoon is also affected by arriby,
03:56because of the demand it is Branch ofätz that has beenох.
04:16. . .
04:34So, when our currency is low, the imported goods will be added to our inflation.
04:43So, you can see, in many ways, the inflation, the balance of payment, the value of the balance
04:48of payment, the price of value, this is our shock, the supply shock.
04:55Now, the amount of inflation has been reduced, 20% from the state.
05:00Now, the Houthis has joined, if they will close the road to Red Sea,
05:05then the shortage of 30% will increase.
05:07And if it's going to work, the Iran will also be able to do that,
05:12the Red Sea of shipping lines will be disturbed.
05:15Because Saudi Arabia is a large part of the oil,
05:18which is from the East to the West, from the Red Sea.
05:21So, the shortage of our energy is going to increase.
05:26What is the energy of our economy?
05:28What is the impact of our economy?
05:29We have the impact of our consumption.
05:32We see that the hotels and restaurants are closed,
05:35because there are no LPG,
05:37people are closed, people are closed,
05:40they have no gas, they have no food,
05:42they have no food, they have no food.
05:43So, this is the consumption of the impact.
05:46The production of the impact is because the oil is not used,
05:49it is not only energy.
05:50There are very chemicals in it.
05:52There are sulfur, helium gas,
05:55there are fertilizers,
05:57there are fertilizers,
05:58there are pharmaceuticals,
06:00there are other parts of the energy shock.
06:03But the other parts of the supply will be very low.
06:06Then in Persim Asia,
06:08the fertilizer will come out,
06:09the aluminum will come out,
06:11there will also be short falls.
06:13So, one way,
06:14the inflation will be faster,
06:15from the other side,
06:16it will decrease in the growth.
06:19So, this is called the stagflation situation.
06:22The stagflation situation is very difficult to deal with it,
06:25because the supply shock is,
06:26we cannot deal with the fiscal monetary policy.
06:30The monetary policy is not going to increase the supply,
06:32the fiscal policy is not going to increase the supply,
06:34the energy supply is not going to increase the fiscal policy.
06:35We will have a lot of substitution.
06:37Some people who make food in gas,
06:39they will make coal or coal,
06:40maybe we will make coal,
06:41because some industry called gas,
06:43perhaps we will do alternative content.
06:45But again,
06:46the small population of 15-20% we will have become in the world.
06:49How will we help us to treat our stock?
06:51Our stocks are нем複 목,
06:52because the previous 33 days,
06:55there were 10-12 ships,
06:57we will have to pay for our shipped,
06:59we will have 10 ships in the beginning.
07:01That is,
07:01when we are able to make few reserves,
07:02we are using the reserves of our insiders,
07:05that we are giving to our stock.
07:06Our stock was already crude,
07:07that we were being sold.
07:08enkival कर रहा है अलाकि हमारी कोशिश हमthose다ं पिर्गिंगे शोड़ा लें
07:13लेकिन फिर्वी कुश्टिप्स है है वहारे तो हमक्र पिर्थ प없이 तो pronounce तो
07:30हमारे RED को कम हो रहे है और हम 20 North 30% अपना जो रिफाइभ ।ो
07:40So we are going in this situation and if the youth is going in 4-5 weeks, then we are
07:45going in a recessionary situation.
07:49Sir, we are saying that Donald Trump is saying that we are going to send us to the Stone Age.
07:54But in the Stone Age, it will only go Iran or the global economy will go?
07:57And especially in India, what could have a bad effect on the GDP? How much can it come down the
08:04GDP?
08:05And how much can it come down on the forex?
08:09Now, Iran is doing bombing.
08:1112,000 places have already been bombing.
08:14The first of all, the fighter aircraft is bombing.
08:17Now, the B-52 is a heavy bomber.
08:20The B-52 can be bombing as much as 15-20 fighters.
08:25So, it is a heavy bombing.
08:27So, Iran is going to be very good.
08:30But Iran is not coming back.
08:32As much as they are bombing,
08:35they are going to attack the American interests.
08:41So, it is going to work.
08:43Now, the effect of this is, as I said,
08:47that it will affect us.
08:49Because without energy, you will not do it.
08:51If there is a shortage, there will be a lot of pressure on the global levels.
08:55So, the possibility of special energy.
08:57If we require our energy shortage,
08:58we will buy about 85 percent by the global level.
09:0160 percent after we bring the gas,
09:03but if it doesn't exist,
09:05then we will not do that.
09:06The lot of pressure on the country will be lower.
09:09If it is, our economy will be lower than 3,000 percent.
09:09So, you can understand that
09:10the amount of pressure will be lower.
09:12So, we will say that the growth rate
09:14हम कह रहे हैं कि हमारा growth rate अच्छा चल रहा है उसमें गिरावट काफी आने की गुंजाइश है
09:19तो पहली बात है कि हमारे growth दूसरा हमारा foreign exchange चुकि जैसे मैंने
09:24कहा कि multiple routes से non-resident Indians, FDI, FPI, ये सारी चीजों पे जो
09:31असर पढ़ेगा तो हमारा foreign exchange reserve तेजी से गिरेगा
09:34क्योंकि जो balance payment है उसमें current account में तो deficit बढ़ जाएगा
09:39और उसको हम capital account से जो cover करते हो capital account से भी जह हमारा
09:43जो कम आएगा तो इसलिए बड़ी तेजी से हमारे foreign exchange reserves गिरेंगे
09:47तो foreign exchange reserve भी गिरेंगे और उत्पादन पे भी कमी आएगी और इससे फिर हमारे
09:52जो crisis है वो बढ़ता जाएगा क्योंकि रुप्या फिर कमजोर होता जाएगा जितना कमजोर होता जाएगा उतना फिर जो
09:58जो vicious cycle है वो और जादे तेज़ दाएगी तो इसलिए और फिर एक बात ये भी है कि अगर
10:04दुनिया में
10:04recessionary situation आई तो हमारे export पे भी असर पड़ेगा और हमारे export पे पड़ेगा तो फिर उसका
10:10असर दुबारा हमारे उत्पादन पे पड़ेगा उसका असर दुबारा हमारे foreign exchange
10:14reserve पे पड़ेगा तो इसलिए हमको ये मान के चलना चाहिए कि यूद की सती है हमको कमर
10:19बांद के कमर कसके इसका मुकाबला करना पड़ेगा उस्टेलिया में जब वहां की प्रधान
10:25मंत्री ने अनौंस कर दिया ब्रिटन में अनौंस कर दिया कि सिती बहुत खराब है हमको सब को ये
10:30contribute करना पड़ेगा तो हमारे हां भी हम देश को एक मतलब confidence में लें कि ये
10:35सिती है इसमें सब को हमें sacrifice करना पड़ेगा जैसे कि यूद के दौरान हमें sacrifice करना पड़ता है
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