00:00The National Football League, who has been very adverse to dealing with prediction markets,
00:05in fact, they're probably going to end up being the lone league that has no affiliation whatsoever
00:09because they don't need their money, so to speak, is asking the prediction markets,
00:14very specifically Calci Poly Market, to take a couple of their predictions off the market
00:21involving different kind of outcomes, which is like individual-based, not action-based.
00:28So tell us more exactly what they want removed and why they want it removed.
00:35Yeah, Craig, the NFL sent letters to Calci and Poly Market, which are the two leading prediction markets in the
00:41U.S.,
00:41this past Sunday, urging them to stop offering these certain sports-related contracts,
00:48it believes could be especially ripe for manipulation.
00:53Sorry, tongue twister there.
00:55These are markets like, what is someone on the broadcast going to say during the game, which you can bet
01:01on?
01:02These are called mentioned markets, which could be anything like Tom Brady saying,
01:06oh, I think that they're going to run an RPO here.
01:10How many times is he going to say RPO?
01:12Something like that.
01:13Is a celebrity going to be at the game?
01:15You can bet on as well.
01:16There was a lot of money wagered on that during the Super Bowl when Mark Wahlberg,
01:21there was some contention about whether he actually did appear or not appear and how they could settle the markets.
01:27And then other markets like, you know, who's going to be taken at what point in the draft,
01:30which are things that some sportsbooks offer in certain states.
01:34Certainly some states don't allow sportsbooks to offer them because of the way their laws are written,
01:38designed for this very thing where you're thinking about insider information that potentially a team,
01:44somebody around the team, personnel might have, other markets like coach firings, officiating decisions,
01:50which I haven't really seen any of these officiating decisions or injury markets popped up on Kalshi or Poly markets
01:57so far.
01:57But it is notable that the league is kind of including these in all these markets.
02:02Specifically, NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Miller talked about the league just wanting to stay away from inside information wagers,
02:11all these kind of markets, which they made a point in their letter.
02:14These are all guardrails that sportsbooks have.
02:17Currently, there are no real guardrails that prevent this on the prediction market space
02:21because it's federally regulated by the CFTC available on 50 states,
02:25which, again, is something that a lot of states are challenging in their own lawsuits.
02:31So this is just kind of the NFL raising the issue once again, saying, hey, we really need to figure
02:35this out.
02:36We're kind of worried about this.
02:38The CFTC, meanwhile, is working on rules.
02:41It's collecting comments.
02:41So I would imagine that this letter the NFL sent of these companies is going to get put into those
02:48comments
02:48and go into the rulemaking process right here.
02:50But you brought up a point, Craig, about how the NFL is in a unique position.
02:54You know, they're obviously the biggest league.
02:56They have more kind of bargaining power here with how much they can see in prediction markets.
03:01I don't think it's any coincidence that the first league we saw really get in bed with prediction markets,
03:07so to speak, was the NHL, which out of the four leagues is probably the least popular.
03:11And then recently you had Major League Baseball going even farther beyond the partnership they had with these prediction markets
03:17and signing a memorandum of agreement with the CFTC, which we've never seen a federal agency that oversees financial exchanges
03:27and a financial investing partner with a sports league on this front.
03:31So certainly a lot of other leagues are kind of embracing it, notably the NFL, the biggest, most powerful league,
03:37really,
03:37kind of saying, you know, maybe let's hedge our bets here and say we need more guardrails.
03:42We want to protect integrity, definitely at a time when integrity is really a big issue in sports.
03:47And, of course, you do have the NCAA who has been just kind of banging their chest like this is
03:51really problematic.
03:52This really could be an issue.
03:54We don't want to have to find out more of these cases where, you know, people are sharing this inside
03:59information.
03:59But right now the attitude from the CFTC and Coliseum Polymarket is, you know, we're trying our best.
04:05We're just going to keep policing.
04:06So we'll see if this leads to any kind of concrete rules from the CFTC or if Coliseum Polymarket respond
04:14in some way.
04:14But not a huge bit of news, but definitely some positioning for the NFL right here as prediction markets continue
04:20to grow.
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