00:00It does seem like the market, the oil market is complacent. I mean oil prices, WTI, Brent both easing on
00:07the back of Trump saying he's willing to end the war but without opening the Strait of Hormuz. Surely that
00:12choke point is important for the market.
00:14Of course it is. Markets are moving by sentiment and by Trump's words it can go up $10-$15
00:24and come down $10-$15. But the fact really is that every week 100 million barrels of oil is
00:31not going through. And every month 400 million barrels are not going through.
00:39So within a period of time, these losses to the market will be astronomical. And if we continue this for
00:47another six to eight weeks, the prices will go through the roof. It doesn't matter what President Trump says.
00:54What is going through the roof? Are we looking at $200 oil?
00:56We're looking at $150 first and $200 and maybe even more than $200. Beyond eight weeks, it could go anywhere.
01:05And there will definitely be an impact on the global economy.
01:10So we have, if you again, look at the 400 million barrels lost every month, three months is 1.2
01:19billion barrels lost. And if the IEA wants to release, and IEA is going to release some more oil by
01:25in middle of April, it's not going to be enough.
01:28So the market will choke and the prices will go up and it then doesn't matter what the president says
01:35on the political front.
01:36So the oil prices that we're seeing currently, not quite reflecting the risks in the oil market, correct?
01:42Absolutely. And there are, you know, it's interesting in the market today that if you want all the prices that
01:49you listed here on the screen is for delivery 60 days from now.
01:53If you want to get it right now, today, you have to pay $10, $15 extra on top of it.
02:00So actually, immediate oil is more expensive than oil which comes in 60 days. And if it's 30 days, it's
02:07$10 more expensive. So the immediate oil availability is a big problem.
02:13And this becomes bigger and bigger and bigger a few weeks down the road.
02:17And we had President Trump talking about obliterating Iranian infrastructure, including Kargai Island. Talk to us about whether or not
02:25that could possibly create a new energy shock.
02:29Well, it would. You know, he has been talking about occupying the place, obliterating, attacking it now is a recent.
02:39As Dan says, you know, every day is a new story.
02:42I don't think there is any possibility of him attacking the Kargai Island oil facilities, but he can occupy it
02:50and try to use it as a bargaining chip that you open the straits and I'll give you this back.
02:58The problem is that in Iran, there is no central leadership. You know, so many of these commanders which have
03:03been killed have not been replaced.
03:05There is a lot of decentralized decision making. People make decisions. They hit the Kuwaiti tanker in Dubai. Why? What
03:15is the logic of that?
03:17It is we can be looking for an organized plan. This is a disorganized, chaotic mess. And the revolutionary guys
03:27just do whatever they want.
03:28Somebody is asking for two million dollars. Somebody is asking for one million. These monies are not going to go
03:33to the government pockets.
03:34They go to their own pockets. So it is if you tell them that I'm going to bargain with you,
03:39they may say we don't care.
03:42We don't want to do it. So until there is an organized government in Iran, there is no need and
03:47no possibility of a logical negotiation.
03:50How should oil importers, especially those in Asia, reliant on the supply from the Middle East, the likes of Japan,
03:57India, Korea, how should they be looking at their oil supplies now?
04:02Well, there is a big problem. The issue is that these countries, they have shown no backbone. And the same
04:09with the Europeans.
04:10I mean, the hormones of straight closure is everybody's problem. And the fact that they want to charge fees and
04:17they say anybody who is a U.S. friend cannot go through here is everybody's problem.
04:21And everybody needs to participate. They say this is not our war. It's Trump's war. Let him do it. And
04:28it's just not good enough.
04:29I am sure if this continues within two months, eight weeks, there will be a allocation of gasoline, even in
04:42Singapore.
04:42We won't be able to go and fill our cars the way that we want it. Everybody has to begin
04:48to ration. This rationing of supplies becomes the norm.
04:53This is a big global crisis and it has to be straight and foremost has to be open. There is
05:00no choice.
05:01For the oil market, what are we looking out for in the coming weeks? We know that a reversal of
05:06the current situation will take months.
05:08Yes, the people are shutting in capacity. In the Persian Gulf, many countries, including Saudi Arabia, they bring the oil
05:20up by water pumping.
05:22Many countries like the UAE, Abu Dhabi, they use gas. But when you shut them down, it takes time to
05:30bring them back on.
05:32This is an environment where everybody needs to see the regime in Iran to change. If it doesn't change, it
05:41is a global disaster.
05:42We talk about how for the oil market, we have the IEA, we have OPEC. But for the gas market,
05:50we don't have such organizations.
05:53Might the gas market be hit even more than the oil market?
05:57Yes, absolutely. The gas market has no policemen. And every day, three cargos go through. But it is critical for
06:08the Asian markets, more than it is for the European market, for the LNG to go through.
06:14So, let's go through.
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