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00:00Put this in perspective for us.
00:03Well, Hass, it's like you said, all parties agree on, you know, and have approved rather a law that requires
00:1033 percent of the seats in the lower house of parliament to be reserved for women.
00:16Now, the question was, when would this come into effect?
00:19What I understand is the men were not willing to part with their seats.
00:22Plus, India has for decades not expanded the number of seats, proportionate or commensurate with the increase in population.
00:30So the women reservation issue was linked to what is popularly known as delimitation or an expansion of seats of
00:37the lower house of parliament or the Lok Sabha, as it's called here in India.
00:42All of this was set to a timeline linked to the current census, which is a survey to enumerate the
00:51current population.
00:52But the BJP or Prime Minister Modi's party has suddenly brought this forward and decided just days before two very
01:02key states go to elections.
01:04The BJP has called a special session of parliament, which is underway since yesterday, to try and advance the timelines
01:11on all of this.
01:12Now, it's exactly like you said.
01:14We need more seats.
01:16Everyone agrees on women's reservation.
01:17The only question is, how do we do this whilst maintaining some degree of proportion linked to today, which is
01:26to not disadvantage the southern states in India significantly, because these are states which have developed, but where the population
01:35rate is in decline, whereas the north, which is more populous, hasn't seen as much advancement in socio and economic
01:44indicators.
01:44So the concern that opposition parties have is that can we maintain some degree of proportionality so that the south
01:53is not put to a significant disadvantage and does not get the number of seats, relatively speaking, reduced when parliament
02:01or Lok Sabha is expanded.
02:02That is the point of key contention right now in New Delhi.
02:08Manika, hang tight.
02:09Do stick around.
02:10Let's get more from a prominent Indian public policy specialist and researcher, Yamini Ayer, a senior visiting fellow at Brown
02:17University.
02:18Her focus includes federalism, state capacity and India's shifting electoral map.
02:22Yamini, good to have you with us.
02:23We heard from Manika, it is needed, but the question really is, why now?
02:28Why push for it now?
02:30Well, that's really the issue of contention.
02:33And I think we need to unpack this.
02:35There are two parts to the issue of delimitation.
02:39The constitution enshrines proportional representation in that all states, the distribution of representation in parliament across states should be in
02:51proportionate to their population.
02:52Now, this was last done based on the 1971 census, and a freeze was instituted in 1976 till 2001, after
03:05that in 2001 to 2026, on the basis that the argument was there is a deep social and economic inequality
03:15between states in India.
03:16And in order to ensure that those parts of India that were taking longer to achieve social and economic growth,
03:26along with population control, which is core to socioeconomic growth, a bargain was kind of struck where states that were
03:35more populous were willing to sit back with relatively lower levels of representation proportional to their population.
03:43On the basis that states that were relatively richer were sharing in the taxes and providing greater tax resources to
03:52these poorer states for them to achieve their developmental targets.
03:55The assumption in 1971 was over a period of time, there would be convergence between states.
04:02Where we are today is a unique place where, in fact, the poorer states have remained poor and been slower
04:08in managing their population.
04:10The relatively richer states have done much better in terms of population control, but also economic growth.
04:17And that's why this has become a challenge, because the richer states are saying, hang on a minute, should we
04:24be giving all our resources towards states that are not developing fast enough?
04:29And by the way, if you do the delimitation, as is required within the constitution, we may actually lose representation
04:37because we've done a better job with population control.
04:40So it's a tricky issue because constitutionally, the basis of federalism is proportionate representation.
04:46This has to be done.
04:48We've kicked the can down the road for some time now.
04:50But how best to do it, given this wide inequity between states in India, is a question on the table.
04:57The women's reservation was frankly a separate issue.
05:01Just to close this, it's complicated, hence I'm taking a few more minutes.
05:04The women's reservation was a separate issue.
05:07It was about enhancing women's representation in our legislative assemblies and parliament.
05:12This was not meant to be tied to the question of delimitation.
05:16In 2023, after a 30-year period, a hard-won consensus was brought within parliament for this reservation.
05:23And in that law, in the constitutional amendment, there was some attempt to link it to the next census and
05:30delimitation.
05:31Why this is being done, which is to be postponed all the way to, in fact, the next census post
05:37-2029.
05:39The next census is happening only now.
05:41This would have happened after 2031.
05:43But there is a sudden rush.
05:45Why there is a rush is the question which is causing the opposition parties to ask questions about the strategy
05:53behind the government's sudden decision two years later to move this faster.
05:59So how do you think this will play out when it comes to the vote?
06:03And what implications are there for the state elections?
06:08Look, it's an open question.
06:10This parliament session was called a week before two crucial states go to the polls.
06:16The BJP has campaigned for, and in fact, quite successfully so, positioning itself as the quote-unquote party for women
06:24mobilizing the female voter base.
06:26But frankly, the two states that are currently going into election next week have also opposition parties that dominate the
06:36state politics in those regions have a very strong voter constituency amongst women.
06:42Is this a sign that the BJP is making towards its female voters in these two states?
06:48Perhaps, but really, the election is only a week away.
06:52Whatever happens in parliament today, I don't think it's going to have such a dramatic impact on the state elections.
06:58What could be strategically, these are two states where a large percentage of the opposition members of parliament come from
07:05because these are two states where the BJP doesn't have strong inroads in national political representation.
07:11So perhaps the strategic calculation was that opposition members of parliament will be busy campaigning, and therefore it would be
07:19easier to push through these constitutional amendments which require a two-third majority.
07:24The arithmetic potentially, strategically could have worked in favor of the BJP if these members of parliament did not come
07:32and abstain from voting.
07:34But it does seem, based on actions of the last two days, that they are in parliament and that the
07:40arithmetic is a little more complicated.
07:45Yamini, you know, we can debate this issue significantly and for long, but I think those watching Bloomberg will also
07:51want to know
07:52whether this will in any sense or in any way help consolidate the vote behind the BJP, not just for
08:00the next two state elections, which might be immaterial in the long run,
08:04but more significantly with an eye to 2029, because it will take two years to implement both delimitation and to
08:13find the additional women candidates to implement women's reservation.
08:20Oh, absolutely. And that's the rub, right?
08:22The more populous parts of India are in the northern regions where the BJP has a stronger electoral base.
08:31And if you look at the numbers as they are unfolding right now, based on the 2011 census,
08:37it does appear undoubtedly that the more populous regions will gain significantly in terms of their representation in parliament
08:46relative to the southern states, where the BJP doesn't have as strong a hold on the electorate as such.
08:55The second question that the opposition is bringing up, we have, there are two parts to the delimitation issue.
09:01One is proportionate division between states, and the other is a redrawing of boundaries within states.
09:07In the last few years, there has been some redrawing of boundaries of the electoral constituencies within states
09:14that have demonstrated the capacity for a lot of gerrymeandering.
09:18And there is a very real challenge that the opposition is confronting about what happens if the delimitation is done
09:27without due process and the possibilities of gerrymeandering, which will suit the BJP in that it seeks to polarize the
09:36electorate
09:37in a religious polarization, which will suit the Hindu majoritarian political ideology that the BJP campaigns on.
09:47So this is partisan in a very real way.
09:51All right. I have two more questions, Yamini.
09:54You made the point that delimitation or the expansion of the number of seats is linked to population in the
10:00Constitution.
10:01But my question is this.
10:03Is that the fairest incentive for states when it comes to determining the policies towards development?
10:10Because if the only way to get more representation is to allow an increase in population,
10:16which is not necessarily co-aligned to development, then that sort of sends the wrong message to states, doesn't it?
10:27Well, look, I think even though the Constitution enshrined proportional representation links to population,
10:35the bargain as it evolved, especially since the 1970s, has been one of a little bit of give and take.
10:42As I mentioned earlier, the bargain was in the current structure, since there has been a freeze since 1971,
10:50one of India's most populous states, Uttar Pradesh, has 11 seats less today than it should proportionate to its population.
10:58But that bargain was struck on the understanding that while southern states got more representation relative to their population,
11:05they were also willing to share in their productivity as tax resources were shared on the basis of equity.
11:13The challenge that we confront today is that because states have not converged
11:19and the developmental gap between the poorer parts of India and the richer parts of India is huge,
11:24poorer parts of India look closer to Nepal per capita than the richer parts of India
11:28that look closer to a middle-income country per capita in terms of GDP.
11:31And so this grand bargain itself is fraying.
11:35If we are to change this, i.e. move away from population, to arrive at a different type of bargain,
11:42there are many options on the table, including proportionate representation aligned with what the EU has done,
11:48digressive proportionality.
11:49It requires striking a new political consensus.
11:53This cannot be done by suddenly calling a parliamentary session, a special session,
11:58and introducing these bills at the very last hour.
12:01The bills were introduced 48 hours before Parliament was to debate amidst elections.
12:06It requires serious trust building between centre and state,
12:10particularly against the backdrop of the partisan implications we spoke about earlier,
12:14and careful consensus building.
12:17Those conditions do not exist right now.
12:20All right.
12:21The final question from me, Yamini, is this.
12:24We are about 543 seats in the Lok Sabha.
12:28The constitutional amendment bill that's being debated right now could take the number of seats to as many as 850.
12:35Now, everyone who invests in India will wonder whether in, you know,
12:40sort of a governance structure that involves a significantly higher number of representatives
12:46will deliver better administration and better efficiency.
12:51And so my question to you is this.
12:53Whether we go to 600 or 700 or 800,
12:56is that the solution that India needs for better governance?
13:03Look, the answer is no.
13:06What we need is better functioning institutions.
13:09The current challenge is that Parliament sits for 50 days, 70 days at best in the last 10 years.
13:17Debates are stalled.
13:18There is a lot of chaos.
13:21The functioning of the Parliament itself has not been particularly in accordance with the rule of law.
13:29And as a result, the capacity for Parliament to actually operate with appropriate checks and balances
13:35has been limited even at 543.
13:38850, which is the current proposal, is unlikely to create better functioning Parliament.
13:44A Parliament that follows rules and sits for a longer course is a Parliament that will govern better.
13:53This requires the structure of Parliament, the institutional norms of Parliament to be implemented better,
13:58which has nothing to do with size.
14:01The size, to my mind, is orthogonal to the capacity to govern.
14:05The capacity to govern is about ensuring that institutions function well.
14:09The real worry with this expansion is if Parliament only sits for 50 days,
14:15at 543, members of Parliament barely get to ask questions.
14:19At 850, it will be total chaos.
14:23Yamini, I want to talk about the Iran war.
14:25It's casting a long shadow on the state elections.
14:27To what extent do you think this is a stress test to, you know, promise the Modi's dominance?
14:33How might this play out?
14:35Well, state elections are meant to be fought on state issues.
14:41In that sense, this is really a stress test for the state political parties and very local specific issues.
14:51But, of course, national issues tend to play their own role.
14:55And the government has been quite careful, I think, for the moment to hold back on any price increases in
15:01terms of fuel prices to affect the consumer.
15:06We'll only see that hit, I think, after the elections are completed.
15:09No question, the economic consequences of the Iran war, as well as the geopolitical consequences of the Iran war,
15:17don't forget that Prime Minister Modi's core kind of legitimacy comes from his projection to the domestic audience of having
15:25been an important player geopolitically,
15:27geopolitically, is open to question now, given the way things have unfolded from tariffs to the role or lack of
15:35role that India is playing in shaping geopolitics through the Iran war.
15:39And in some senses, an argument is being made here in India that this special session of parliament,
15:46the rush to move the women's reservation is also a way of trying to bring the focus back to domestic
15:51issues amidst crucial elections,
15:53taking away the focus from some of the challenges that we are confronting geopolitically.
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