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00:04It was supposed to be a fresh start for Britain.
00:08Our country has voted decisively for change.
00:13After 14 years of Tory government that descended into political soap opera,
00:19Keir Starmer promised to bring stability.
00:22There was a really clear mission statement to try and fix Britain,
00:26to stop the chaos and to have the grown-ups back in the room.
00:29We have a huge amount of work to do.
00:32Armed with one of the largest majorities in British political history,
00:37Starmer had a clear mandate for change.
00:40His campaign around the concept of change
00:42was simply about getting rid of the old
00:45without really understanding what the new meant.
00:48But what did he mean by change?
00:51Because nearly two years down the line,
00:53the political landscape is anything but stable.
00:57With unpopular policies.
00:59Shame on you, Keir Starmer.
01:02Alienating even his own backbenchers.
01:05The removal of the winter fuel allowance landed like a bucket of sick.
01:10Losing voters left and right.
01:13Their argument is we've got to out reform reform.
01:15We've alienated everyone.
01:18And flawed decision-making.
01:20Nobody knew what Peter was up to.
01:23It was a huge, jaw-dropping shock.
01:25Critics say that Keir Starmer is simply more of the same.
01:30It was almost impossible to discern what Keir Starmer's plans for government were.
01:37Keir Starmer is someone with a really deep-rooted sense of what he believes to be right and fair.
01:41And now the war in the Middle East is tearing apart old alliances and causing turmoil in the special relationship.
01:49I consider President Trump's remarks to be insulting and frankly appalling.
01:54This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with.
01:57The Westminster vultures are circling the Prime Minister.
02:02Next month's local elections could spell the end for Keir Starmer.
02:06Will he become the sixth Prime Minister in just ten years to lose his job?
02:11And is it his fault or has Britain simply become ungovernable?
02:27Whether you voted Labour or not, we will carry the responsibility of your trust as we rebuild our country.
02:40The town of Ramsgate on the North Kent coast is typical of many of Britain's economically struggling coastal towns.
02:49My government will serve.
02:54Politics can be a force for good. We will show that.
02:58A former Conservative stronghold, Labour won big here in 2024 with a 16% swing, receiving 40% of the
03:07vote.
03:08But was that victory all that it seemed?
03:14What happens in 2024 in this constituency in East Thanham?
03:18The Labour vote, in numerical terms, actually goes down.
03:23Labour only win because of the collapse in the Tory vote.
03:27And that is something that you see in place after place after place.
03:32After 14 years of Tory rule, for many, Labour was seen as the least worst, the default option.
03:39That massive figure has been delivered with a relatively small percentage of the people.
03:45That looks like love, but that is a loveless landslide.
03:50The idea of Labour winning what has been dubbed a loveless landslide is supported by an exclusive new opinion poll
03:57conducted for this programme.
04:0054% of voters said that Labour and Keir Starmer won the last election simply because the alternative options were
04:08worse.
04:11Keir Starmer won a big historic election victory by talking about change.
04:16But to govern, you need something slightly different, a plan.
04:22While there was a plan to win the general election, there wasn't a plan for government.
04:27So I think a lot of people thought Labour had a secret plan that they were going to implement after
04:33polling day.
04:34And there wasn't one.
04:36Previous landslide-winning prime ministers have had a clear and coherent vision for governing.
04:42Whether it was Margaret Thatcher's plan to roll back the frontiers of the state,
04:47Tony Blair and his new Labour third way,
04:50or David Cameron's big society and austerity programme,
04:55they were all driven by a distinct set of political principles.
05:00I've never known whether Keir has got any form of ideology.
05:04I don't know what he stands for or what he wants to do in government.
05:10I don't think the country has a clear sense of what Keir Starmer's political mission is.
05:17If I'm honest, I don't know if the Labour Party has a clear sense of what that is.
05:21And I'm not even sure if he and his team have a clear sense of what that is.
05:28I fear that Keir Starmer believed that it was enough simply to be more decent, more public-spirited,
05:37basically a better person than the evil Tories,
05:41and that his decency, as he saw it, combined with an appetite on the part of the country for change,
05:49would be enough.
05:50But it's never enough. If you want to succeed in government, you need to have a plan for government.
05:58In private, even those who work closely with the Prime Minister say he lacks any real interest in a political
06:04ideology,
06:05that he is almost passive.
06:10There is a paradox about the man.
06:13He is almost uniquely uninterested in political ideas.
06:17Cabinet colleagues say the same thing, which is that he has reached the apex of our politics,
06:21whilst at the same time, more than any other Prime Minister I can think of, being fundamentally anti-political.
06:32I think he's in politics because he wants to make the country better.
06:35And I think that that is, I mean, that's it.
06:39I don't think there's a detailed sort of Starmer philosophy.
06:45I think the Prime Minister took a proudly pragmatic approach to these things.
06:49His view was, I think, that visions were for profits.
06:52And actually, he deliberately travelled fairly ideologically light.
06:58The truth is, you don't have a set of ideas which binds your Cabinet together,
07:04which binds your party together, which tells your MPs, which tell the public what you're all about.
07:09Then guess what? Division starts to creep in.
07:12And every tiny little crisis seems to blow you off course all the worse,
07:18because you, the party and the public don't know where you're going.
07:25Our new opinion poll seems to confirm this view.
07:28Voters were asked to describe Keir Starmer in one word of their choice.
07:33Incompetent, useless and weak were the words most frequently used to describe the PM.
07:39Pragmatic and good also came up, though, in smaller numbers.
07:45It's a less than stellar verdict for the man who promised to make politics work for the people once again.
07:52So what was the response when we asked voters what they thought Keir Starmer stood for?
07:58Nothing was the top answer.
08:03Keir went from our second worst ever election result to our third best election result in one parliamentary period.
08:14So five years. That is an extraordinary achievement.
08:18And in a sense, he didn't have time to lay the groundwork.
08:22There wasn't a lot of time for preparation.
08:25I think what's been a mystery to many of us, given how long the current Labour government had in opposition
08:31to prepare for power,
08:33is that it does feel like there was a lack of really detailed planning
08:37and a sense that actually incoming ministers didn't have their programmes worked out.
08:44But Starmer sees himself differently as a calm, considered problem solver.
08:50The ideology isn't the solution, but the problem.
08:53That what drives him is opportunity for kids from backgrounds like his own.
08:58When you hear him talk about the power of education,
09:01the belief that where you're from shouldn't determine what you go on to achieve in life,
09:05and this real sense that working people have lost out in recent decades,
09:10I think that really does motivate him, that really does inspire him.
09:15Good intentions are one thing.
09:20But do the public, even his own cabinet, know what his plan for government is?
09:29He's the top boss and he has all of the people reporting into him, basically all his cabinet.
09:34And they all control a particular area.
09:37And he doesn't want to be bothered with quite a lot of the intricacies of what they're dealing with.
09:43And he hates having to adjudicate disagreements between them.
09:47So everyone has had their own individual strategy,
09:50but there's been very little leadership from the top to pull it all together.
09:54He certainly had plenty on his plate and a sometime hostile media to boot.
10:00But without that leadership, voters are inevitably left wondering what to make of the Prime Minister.
10:06Our exclusive new opinion poll suggests there's widespread confusion among the public
10:11over the direction Keir Starmer is taking the country.
10:15Nearly two in three voters said that Labour did not have a clear plan for government.
10:23So the public are confused about the man.
10:26His own colleagues are confused as well.
10:28What exactly did Keir Starmer mean when he said he would bring change?
10:33Perhaps in his own mind, what he really meant was himself.
10:36That he would have more integrity, be more competent, bring more stability.
10:41Decency over ideology.
10:42Given the scale of Britain's financial problems which he'd inherited, it was never going to be enough.
10:50We have inherited a projected overspend of £22 billion.
10:54A £22 billion hole in the public finances now.
10:58Not in the future, but now.
11:01The first big outings were Rachel Reeve saying it's all doom and gloom and actually everything is terrible and this
11:09is going to be really difficult.
11:10And everyone was like, oh right, but we just, we thought things were going to get better because we just
11:15voted for change.
11:16Over the next 18 months, the new government seemed to stumble from crisis to crisis with confusion over Keir Starmer's
11:24vision and a lack of clear direction resulting in rebellion among his MPs and the public alike.
11:32Leading to devastating flagship policy U-turns.
11:36It's a mistake. Admit it.
11:38And back down.
11:41And the Prime Minister's own personal judgement being called into question.
11:58Just weeks after the new Labour government swept to power in 2024, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, made her first policy
12:05announcement.
12:07But it wasn't the brave new door Labour supporters were hoping for.
12:13Today, I am making the difficult decision that those not in receipt of pension credit or certain other means-tested
12:19benefits will no longer receive the winter fuel payment from this year onwards.
12:24The kind of debut policy announcement was the winter fuel allowance, which was such a bad policy and it felt
12:32so anti-Labour.
12:34Winter fuel come now away!
12:36People were very, very angry.
12:38You're taking off money from the most vulnerable members of our society and that landed like a bucket of sick.
12:47Shame on you, Keir Starmer.
12:50Shame on you!
12:53As public anger grew, 52 Labour MPs refused to back the government on winter fuel payments, exposing deep division inside
13:01the party.
13:03A lot of backbenchers were very unhappy and the fact it wasn't even included in our manifesto was what made
13:10people very angry at that time as well.
13:13But a full ten months later, under mounting pressure from his own backbenchers, the Prime Minister backed down.
13:21As the economy improves, we want to ensure that as we go forward, more pensioners are eligible for winter fuel
13:28payments.
13:31Keir Starmer landed his government with a label that would come to haunt his early months in office. U-turn.
13:38I think it became clear over time that the winter fuel allowance was deeply unpopular, not removing it from those
13:44who are millionaires, because there's an obvious point of fairness there.
13:48But where unfortunately we did end up squeezing people a bit further down, you know, the income chain, and they
13:52really felt it.
13:53We did make the right call and moved into a better position.
13:57The U-turn on winter fuel payments alone is estimated to have cost the government £1.3 billion a year.
14:04But it wasn't a one-off.
14:06In the months that followed, U-turns became almost routine, as did rebellions from the back benches.
14:13The Prime Minister's authority eroded fast.
14:17Political capital was quickly squandered with MPs and public alike over pensioners and winter fuel, over disabled people and welfare
14:27reform, over farmers and inheritance tax.
14:30It wasn't thought out, and it's a mistake. Admit it.
14:35And back down!
14:37That's true.
14:44Starmer's initial refusal to lift the two-child benefit cap infuriated many of his own backbenchers.
14:52So the one policy that we're advocating for that for a long period of time is scrapping the two-child
14:57limit.
14:58What do we do? We block the vote on that.
15:02Faced with another backbench backlash, Keir Starmer does what he's done before.
15:06He U-turns.
15:09We have made some mistakes as a government, and I've been upfront about that.
15:13In the budget, the Chancellor announced that we'd lift the two-child limit.
15:16Alongside everything else that we've done, whether that's expanding childcare, expanding free school meals, knee-free breakfast clubs, a lot
15:22has happened on that front.
15:25It's perfectly true that most governments will U-turn from time to time.
15:29The problem with Starmer's U-turns is that people have found it difficult to discern what is the ground on
15:35which he's going to stand and fight.
15:38But for voters, the real issue isn't political U-turns.
15:43They voted for change, motivated by a desire to feel better off.
15:50Living standards in Britain for the past two decades have either been stagnant or declining.
15:55I.e., that British people are basically no richer than they were 20 years ago.
16:01That has not happened, arguably ever, or at least since the Napoleonic War.
16:06So if you're asking, why does British politics seem so unstable?
16:09That is why British people, in election after election or referendum or whatever, are voting again and again and again
16:16for economic change, for material improvement in their lives, and time and again, no matter what answer they choose, which
16:23party they choose, they don't seem to get it.
16:33Hi. Hi. How are you doing? Lovely to meet you. Nice to meet you. Welcome to Social Enterprise Kitchen.
16:36Well, no, thanks for having us.
16:39In Ramsgate, on the Kent Coast, organisations like the Social Enterprise Kitchen are helping to bridge the growing gap between
16:46wages and the rising cost of living.
16:49We try and keep everything to about 60% of the cost you would buy in a supermarket.
16:55After Keir Starmer's first 20 months in office, are the numbers of people using services like this one beginning to
17:02fall?
17:04It's getting worse and not better.
17:07Yeah. We see between 500 and 600 transactions every week. It has increased steadily as well.
17:15We have people who are in work who are coming here because, you know, by the end of the month,
17:21your money just isn't going as far.
17:23That's the reality of things right now.
17:29That reality is reflected in our own survey of 2,000 voters.
17:35We asked people what difference the government is making to their lives.
17:40Two in three voters said that the cost of living has actually got worse since Labour came to power.
17:46A similar number say Labour is acting too slowly to deliver change.
17:52Even more worrying for Keir Starmer is the fact that for those who supported him in 2024, fixing the cost
17:58of living crisis was the number one reason for voting Labour.
18:04The public are getting through Prime Ministers faster and faster, but they're desperate to see change.
18:10You know, they've been voting for change for the last 15 years at least, and they feel like they haven't
18:14seen it.
18:15For a time, Keir Starmer had an unhappy title, the most unpopular Prime Minister since records began, with just a
18:2313% approval rating.
18:26His support was even lower than Liz Truss, the Prime Minister who survived in office for less than 50 days.
18:34How do you account for that? What's gone wrong? Something must have gone wrong.
18:37What do I think's gone wrong? I don't know.
18:42It doesn't seem to me to be at all fair to treat Keir Starmer as if he's some modern version
18:49of Liz Truss.
18:50The response to Keir in particular is totally disproportionate to what's happening.
18:58Some of that polling has begun to reverse, and the Cabinet appears to be sticking with him.
19:05Keir is a decent, humble and straightforward person who just wants to do the best for the country, wants the
19:11country to improve, wants to play his part in making that happen.
19:15We had a golden opportunity, and we still have a golden opportunity, from that election in July 2024.
19:20And Labour governments really don't come around very often. We should never lose sight of that.
19:26But the Prime Minister's message must fight to be heard above the booming rhetoric of noisy arrivals.
19:33The Labour Party can fight back as much as they like, but frankly, their record in government so far is
19:39lamentable.
19:40In last May's local elections, Nigel Farage's Reform Party came out on top, winning the largest number of council seats,
19:47while Labour's own share of the vote plummeted.
19:51Farage's louder, simpler messaging resonated with a frustrated public, and Reform continued to lead in national opinion polls.
20:01In response to Reform's success, Starmer's rhetoric on immigration appeared to move significantly to the right in a matter of
20:08days.
20:10These rules become even more important. Without them, we risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks
20:18forward together.
20:19His words horrified many on the left of his party.
20:24Their argument is, we've got to out-reform, reform.
20:27They deny that, but that's the reality of what has happened and what's happening at the moment.
20:32Things he said about an island of strangers, we had in the party relied on the support of our diverse
20:40communities for a long time,
20:42and taken it for granted, and I think that's no longer there.
20:49For the last year, Keir Starmer has framed the choice in British politics as between himself and Nigel Farage, between
20:57Labour and Reform.
20:58Increasingly, though, we can see that the voters disagree, that they're looking elsewhere, that Labour's biggest problem right now isn't
21:06Reform.
21:07It's the hemorrhaging of votes and voters to the party's left.
21:13This problem came to a head in February in the Gorton and Denton by-election in Greater Manchester, in what
21:19had been a rock-solid Labour seat.
21:23Hannah Catherine Spencer is duly elected.
21:29In a shock result, the Greens won, with Labour coming a poor third behind Reform.
21:36The election results for the party in Gorton and Denton was very devastating.
21:42His position on Gaza, for example, didn't resonate very well.
21:47We need, as a party, to look at strategically what needs to happen moving forward,
21:54to re-energise, you know, to build trust and confidence back again in the party,
21:59and we need to do that sooner rather than later.
22:02At the same time as really not having any impact whatsoever in addressing those that are voting for reform,
22:11he's alienated the whole section of those people who are very traditional Labour voters,
22:18who are repelled by that language.
22:20And especially when Keir is calling people extremists, not just of the right but of the left as well.
22:26Refugees are welcome here!
22:28We have now an era of really strong characters in politics.
22:35And those ones that are standing against Labour, that's going to eat away at the Labour majority.
22:44Keir Starmer has become known for his U-turn, but this green problem he now faces arguably arises from his
22:51biggest one of all.
22:52It is easy to forget now that Keir Starmer ran to be Labour leader on the party's left.
22:58He described Jeremy Corbyn as an ally and a friend.
23:00He had a suite of left-wing policy positions on which he became leader.
23:05He decided to entirely renege, seeking not to promote the left and their ideas, but to bury them.
23:11Now that may have been smart politics at the time, but the long-term cost has been to alienate progressive
23:17left-wing voters
23:18who in the form of the Greens for the first time in a long time have somewhere else to go.
23:23Something that will play out in those crucial May elections.
23:27But even those elections, as important as they are, may soon start to feel very small
23:32by comparison to events in a far away country, the politics of which will haunt us at home.
23:42With the world now confronting the political and economic impact of President Trump's war in Iran,
23:49is Keir Starmer the kind of leader Britain needs in this time of crisis?
23:54The United Kingdom was not involved in the initial strikes on Iran.
23:59That decision was deliberate.
24:02Could pragmatism over ideology now be a winning card?
24:18The U.S. and U.K. have a special relationship, very special, really like no other passed down through the
24:25centuries.
24:27His greatest challenge has undoubtedly been dealing with President Trump.
24:31I think he's been pretty nimble in doing that, given that you couldn't really think of two more different people
24:37to have in a room together than Donald Trump and Keir Starmer.
24:39One of the areas where Keir Starmer has surprised, arguably on the upside, is in his handling of a relationship
24:45with the American president.
24:47At the start of Keir Starmer's premiership, his foreign policy was dominated by a desire to keep in Donald Trump's
24:54good graces.
24:56We remain each other's first partner in defence, ready to come to the other's aid, to counter threats, wherever and
25:05whenever they may arise.
25:06On the international stage, you know, at least initially, he seemed like something of a Trump whisperer, even.
25:15Dealing with someone like Trump, who is unprecedented in his capriciousness, means that that is a particularly difficult relationship to
25:24handle.
25:26And it was trying to deal with that capricious president and secure a good trade deal that led to perhaps
25:32his greatest moment of political peril back home.
25:35Peter is the right person to help us work with President Trump and to take this special relationship from strength
25:43to strength.
25:43Within a month of Trump's election, Keir Starmer made Lord Mandelson ambassador to the United States.
25:49I was gobsmacked when Starmer decided to appoint Mandelson as the US ambassador.
25:57His appointment, said to have been heavily influenced by Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney, was seen as a political gamble.
26:03They were really profoundly worried about how to manage that relationship with Donald Trump.
26:09And it was with that in mind that they were making the decision.
26:14He knew it was a risk. He knew that Mandelson had a reputation for unwise personal judgment.
26:18But he also knew that Mandelson had political and diplomatic gifts and might be the best person to bridge the
26:25gap between Labour and Trump.
26:27As a veteran of the era in which he was very prominent, were you surprised that Keir Starmer appointed Peter
26:32Mandelson as US ambassador?
26:34No, I thought it was a rather good idea. And, you know, I hope all the other people who said
26:37they thought it was rather a good idea will admit they thought it was rather a good idea.
26:41What a beautiful accent. I'd like to have that accent. Thank you. My mother would be proud.
26:47In Washington, he was thought of as someone with a lot of contacts and contacts matter in Washington.
26:54One thing we don't need to fight over is trade, because...
27:05The gamble seemed to be paying off when Britain secured a lower tariff on import into the US than most
27:12traditional allies.
27:14But in September, that all changed.
27:18Hundreds of thousands of Epstein files are finally released.
27:22Emails, videos, transcripts from a major investigation into the sex offender.
27:28The Prime Minister's judgment was called into question, particularly after revelations about the closeness of the relationship between billionaire convicted
27:37sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and Lord Mandelson.
27:40He was warned it was a general reputational risk.
27:43So my question to the Minister is very simple.
27:45Which feeling does you think the Prime Minister suffers from? Ignorance, arrogance or both?
27:51It was common knowledge at the time that he'd had a relationship with Epstein.
27:58He had been found guilty of other misdemeanours too in the past. He'd have to resign in the past.
28:06Starmer eventually sacked Mandelson, but only after he'd initially defended the appointment at the dispatch box.
28:13Full due process was followed during this appointment, as it is with all ambassadors.
28:22And worse was to come, when it was revealed Mandelson may have been sharing privileged financial information with Epstein, something
28:29which led to his arrest in February.
28:31Were you surprised by those reports?
28:34I was very surprised. I wasn't surprised that Peter was a friend of Epstein.
28:38Peter has a propensity to be friendly with rich, powerful people, what he likes to do.
28:44But those reports of what was happening in 2010 and the information being passed, that's what the police are looking
28:50into.
28:50That was the shock.
28:51Peter Mandelson has always denied any wrongdoing.
28:55This is the biggest scandal in British politics for over one century.
29:00It's another instance where he went against his instincts, but he still did it anyway. And I think he has
29:06to own that.
29:07Scottish Labour leader Anasawa was the first to break ranks.
29:11The distraction needs to end and the leadership in Downing Street has to change.
29:17And the PM was forced to apologise.
29:20I am sorry for having believed Mandelson's lies and appointed him.
29:25I think that the person who was largely responsible was Morgan McSweeney and he's taken responsibility for it and he's
29:32resigned.
29:32It was a catastrophic mistake. He was known as the Prince of Darkness for a particular reason.
29:38So he came with a lot of baggage.
29:44Peter Mandelson's appointment was arguably the biggest mistake of Keir Starmer's premiership.
29:50But on some of the biggest geopolitical problems of the age, he has seemed more assured.
30:00You've got to be more thankful, because let me tell you, you don't have the cards.
30:04With us, you have the cards. But without us, you don't have any cards.
30:08After a very public spat between Trump and Zelensky in February 2025, Starmer was one of the first to step
30:16in.
30:16And what you saw from the Prime Minister was him getting on the phone behind the scenes and speaking to
30:21Donald Trump and speaking to President Zelensky
30:23and then bringing Zelensky to London and giving him that hug in Downing Street and getting the show back on
30:29the road.
30:33And Keir Starmer showed his willingness to stand up to Trump when the president seemed to be very seriously weighing
30:40up the idea of annexing Greenland.
30:42We were all clear that the future of Greenland is a matter for Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark.
30:48Keir is being, you know, clear about it, firm about it, saying, you know, Donald Trump, I don't agree with
30:53you on Greenland.
30:54You're not allowed to have Greenland.
30:55What we British do, and have always done in a way, is apply common sense, pragmatism, but we stick to
31:02our principles and our values.
31:03Welcome to Starmer!
31:05Oh, thank you so much!
31:06One of the things that has been said about Starmer is that he has been better on the world stage
31:11and in foreign policy than domestically.
31:14I think that Keir Starmer is more at home in the hermetically sealed world of the G7, the UN, the
31:23diplomatic lounge,
31:26without grubby domestic politics intruding, where he can look at each problem issue by issue.
31:33Keir Starmer is not ideological. He's a barrister. He looks at each of these cases as an intellectual puzzle to
31:41be resolved and fixed.
31:43I think in an international world that's quite turbulent right now, that sort of steadfastness can actually be an asset.
32:02Had we not done that, Iran would have had a very powerful nuclear weapon within one month.
32:08But Keir Starmer's diplomatic skills were soon to be tested yet again when the US and Israel launched joint missile
32:16strikes on Iran.
32:18Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.
32:29The PM's initial refusal to allow US forces to use British military bases saw him at odds with the American
32:37president.
32:38When the Iran situation came up and whether we're going to back Trump on the attacks, there were people in
32:44the cabinet who actually said,
32:46no, we can't do that. And therefore, Starmer didn't support us going in immediately with Trump.
32:52The United Kingdom played no role in these strikes.
32:56I think this is a rare example of Keir Starmer showing us who he really is or knowing who he
33:02really is.
33:03This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with.
33:08Starmer's approach, initially at least, put clear space between him and his political opponents.
33:14Frankly, what has happened over the course of the last few days is not enough and we look humiliated on
33:20the world stage.
33:22No one wants to see more escalation, but our enemies will look at Britain sitting on the fence and think
33:29that this is a weak country.
33:30She and the reform leader have been spooked because they realize they've jumped into supporting a war without thinking through
33:38the consequences.
33:41He basically said, what do you think we should have just followed Trump blindly into a war with no legal
33:47basis and with no clear plan?
33:49And then he's turned to the Greens and said, what do you think we should just not defend British citizens
33:56who are under fire in the Gulf?
33:58So on that, I think he feels like he has landed in the right place, legally but also politically.
34:09When we're looking at the Iran crisis, do you think this could actually be the making of him?
34:13I think Keir Starmer is not just doing the right thing, but his approach is in line with where the
34:17public are.
34:18I don't think they want to see us sucked into a conflict that lacks a clear purpose or a clear
34:23end.
34:24Others can judge in the long run whether that delivers any wider benefits to Keir as an individual, but that
34:29won't be what motivates him.
34:30He won't be thinking about what this means for him. He'll be thinking about what this means for the country.
34:35Although the role of British bases has been expanded, Starmer still insists they're being used in self-defence.
34:41In a piece of smart politics, he's got the political benefit of publicly opposing the war, while still giving the
34:48Americans much of what they need.
34:50He clearly on some level was thinking, this is good for my survival, that he was more comfortable talking about
34:56Iran than he was about the fallout from the Gorton and Denton by-election, which you can understand because he
35:03does feel like foreign affairs plays to his strengths.
35:11Do you think he'll care that Trump said he was no Churchill?
35:14No, because Trump's no Franklin D Roosevelt. I think the whole point in the Middle East is not about America,
35:20but who is in charge of America.
35:22And I think they're being led at the moment, quite frankly, by an ignorant bully.
35:27I will say the UK has been very, very uncooperative.
35:31They want Starmer to respond to these stupid insults that you get from the stupid being a very Trumpian word.
35:38He can't, but he can ride those two horses in the interest of this country.
35:44And I think that's where his strength will come.
35:46That's the one time probably where foreign affairs will reflect in the ballot box.
35:53I'm not going to be wavering on this.
35:55I'm the British Prime Minister and my job is to be absolutely focused on what's in the British national interest.
36:02What will happen with the Trump relationship? Well, who can possibly say?
36:06But it is true that Keir Starmer does often see more at home abroad.
36:09Why? Well, again, it is to do with the character and politics of this unusual Prime Minister.
36:16In foreign policy, you don't need an ideology. There is no electorate to convince.
36:20There is a series of crises and problems to be weathered and solved.
36:24It appeals to the sort of politician that he is, an international handyman with an international law degree.
36:31Problem is, is that foreign policy rarely wins votes.
36:34And when foreign and domestic collide, as happened in the Mandelson affair,
36:39the old problems for Keir Starmer arise anew.
36:44Despite being viewed as doing the right thing in not backing Trump over Iran,
36:48the long-term economic impact of the war is already being felt in people's pockets
36:54and could yet transform politics at home.
36:57I will keep on fighting for those people for as long as I've got breath in my body.
37:02This is the backdrop to looming crucial elections in May,
37:06where Keir Starmer may face the fight of his life to survive as Labour leader and Prime Minister.
37:27You see that man right there? You know who that is? The late, great Winston Churchill.
37:33Keir Starmer has often been underestimated. At times this year, it looked like he wouldn't even make it this far.
37:40In this job, you don't get a second shot at making the right call on taking your country to war.
37:50As the Iran conflict enters its second month,
37:54Starmer's decision not to join the US-Israeli offensive seems, on the face of it, to have cemented his own
38:00position.
38:00I think we have been able to play a very positive role because the agenda is the right one
38:05and is really popular across the world.
38:13But there are many political landmines ahead for Keir Starmer, not least what he knew about Peter Mandelson
38:19before appointing him to the UK's top diplomatic post.
38:23With a very limited number of documents being released today, the weight goes on for the rest of Britain's Epstein
38:29files.
38:29We know that there's going to be this steady trickle of documents coming out, which will just be the backdrop
38:35to his premiership.
38:38Did you deceive the Prime Minister, Mr Mandelson?
38:43But by far his biggest political challenge will come in May, when voters go to the polls in local elections
38:50in England
38:51and parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales.
38:54I think that ability to consistently show some kind of improvement is what's needed now.
38:59But when it gets to May and you see another sort of dire set of local election results, that might
39:05be the point of no return.
39:08Labour is currently well down in the polls and is projected to lose over 1,500 local councillors.
39:15If he does last up until May the 7th, your job in the run up to May the 7th is
39:20to make sure he isn't there for very much longer.
39:23I think he's feeling so much pressure from reform, but not just from reform, from the Greens as well.
39:29We're not being complacent. We're going to get out there. We're going to campaign for every single vote.
39:35If we have the devastating results that we've been predicted, then I think decisions about who leads the party going
39:45forward has to be a discussion.
39:47I feel confident that Prime Minister wins.
39:50Labour MPs aren't just thinking about it in terms of the dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer.
39:54It's about who comes next and they all want to time it so that the person that they prefer is
40:00best placed to fight a contest.
40:02But Starmer's survival may be underpriced. Much of Labour fears who might replace him and the instability it might cause.
40:10I think that the country will be fed up. You know, we saw too much of that under the Tories,
40:16so we need to think about what the country needs going forward in terms of providing that level of stability.
40:23Do you think he should lead the Parsons the next election if he wants to?
40:27He's probably the only person. To be honest, I can't see West Streeting doing it. I can't see Angela Rayner
40:33doing it. I can't see Andy Burnham doing it. I can't see anybody in the Labour Party.
40:39The health secretary, Starmer's former deputy leader, and the mayor of Greater Manchester are often cited as the three front
40:46runners. But these rivals have their own problems.
40:49The timing hasn't been right for West Streeting or Angela Rayner. It's obviously not right for Andy Burnham because he's
40:55not even in Parliament.
40:56And I think that that has kept Keir Starmer in place.
41:00In recent weeks, Angela Rayner has appeared to be getting closer to mounting a challenge.
41:06However, almost half the people in our survey believed anyone replacing Starmer as Labour leader would actually be the same
41:13or worse.
41:14So I think if you're West Streeting, if you're Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham outside Parliament for the time being, but
41:20if you're one of these contenders thinking that you'd get an easier ride for the public, I'm not sure that's
41:24the case.
41:25Any successor would inherit a government that has hemorrhaged support over the last 20 months.
41:31And after six prime ministers in the last decade, is there much public desire for a seventh?
41:37Nobody wants to be the person that goes over the top because of the instability that could be unleashed in
41:45terms of the markets, in terms of the public being very angry.
41:51Public impatience and frustration with our politicians has been growing over the last two decades.
41:58The heart of this issue is the stagnating or collapsing living standards.
42:05That has led to voters hitting the red button for change repeatedly.
42:10They did that when they voted for Brexit.
42:16They did it when they voted for Boris Johnson, and that didn't work either, and they did it when they
42:21voted Labour.
42:25Keir Starmer or any government that seems unable to improve people's living standards in any way, it is no surprise
42:33that they're unpopular.
42:35And you can understand recent British political history of people voting for economic change again and again and again, and
42:43it never seeming to materialise.
42:45So this is a far bigger question than just about Keir Starmer or his government.
42:49People, I think, in Britain now are starting to doubt whether any government, whether the British state itself, the democratic
42:55system itself, can deliver material improvement to their lives.
43:01It definitely feels like there's something very unstable in our politics. Some of it comes from forces outside of Westminster.
43:11It's like a 24 hour news cycle and social media, voter volatility.
43:16You think that the media and perhaps politicians, MPs as well, were addicted to the drama and that feeds through.
43:23I think so much of the focus and what happens through the media is around some of the kind of
43:28who's up or who's down political chatter.
43:30That's always been there, but it's such a big feature of so much of the coverage at a time when
43:35we're facing some huge global issues, some big issues close to home as well.
43:40The level of discontent that people have with the establishment has only become more entrenched.
43:48Against that background, what you need is a clearer vision, greater radicalism in order to be able to restore faith
43:55in democratic politics.
43:57And in that sense, Starmer, it's his tragedy, is uniquely ill-suited to this moment.
44:06More than half of the people we surveyed believe the fault for Britain's political instability lies squarely with the men
44:13and women we elect to represent us.
44:16Trust in politicians is an all time low. The more the public get to know politicians, the more they often
44:21don't like them.
44:22And our poll suggests that Starmer has an uphill task to change people's minds.
44:27The public have already made up their minds about Keir Starmer and the Labour government.
44:32Now, it might be that substantial improvements to living standards do change their minds,
44:36but at the moment we can see that nearly six in ten of the public think that Labour won't be
44:40able to turn things around.
44:43Starmer now finds himself where no prime minister would want to be just 20 months into their term in office.
44:49He must now not only convince the public, but his own party as well.
44:55I don't think we can go on the way we are, with a party where debate is closed down in
45:01such a way that lessons aren't being learnt.
45:05I think people are just saying, just be Labour, will you?
45:07You stand up for people. You are a progressive party. You do want to change society.
45:12It's more than time for Keir Starmer to go. He's actually lost the trust of the country.
45:16How do you think Keir Starmer will be remembered by history?
45:19I think he'll be remembered as a figure who squandered the amazing inheritance of a huge parliamentary majority,
45:30and the goodwill, certainly, of probably a majority of the country, because he was a man without a plan.
45:37Do you think he'll be prime minister leading the Labour Party into the next general election?
45:41I don't.
45:42Do you think that he will lead Labour into the next election? And do you think he should?
45:46Yes, I do. And yes, I think he should.
45:48I think if he wants to, he will. I'm not sure if Keir wants to be a two-term Prime
45:53Minister.
45:54Keir Starmer's tragedy might be that he's a man of order, with disorder all around him.
46:00A disorder he seems unable to fix. Like so many recent Prime Ministers, he's haunted by changes in technology, social
46:08media, geopolitics.
46:10A public who see a system which no longer works for them, a system which feels ungovernable and chaotic.
46:17He promised that he would end that chaos, something that so far he has not done.
46:23His challenges have been immense, which is precisely why you need leaders, politicians, Prime Ministers who can rise to match
46:30them.
46:30For Keir Starmer, perhaps for the system as we've known it, it's now or never.
46:35The end.
46:37The end.
46:41The end.
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