00:11Iran and the United States are hardening their positions.
00:14Tehran has moved to formalize its control over the crucial strait of Hormuz,
00:18while Washington is now preparing for the arrival of U.S. troops in the region
00:22that could be used on the ground in Iran.
00:25But posting on his Truth social platform this morning,
00:28Donald Trump said Iran is begging the U.S. to make a deal,
00:31adding Iranian negotiators better get serious soon before it's too late.
00:37Well, Pakistan Today said indirect talks are taking place between the U.S. and Iran,
00:41but officials in Iran continue to deny they are negotiating with the U.S.
00:50For now, our policy is to continue resisting and to continue defending our country.
00:54At present, we have no intention of negotiating, and no negotiations have taken place.
01:02We're winning so big, nobody's ever seen anything like we're doing in the Middle East with Iran.
01:08And they are negotiating, by the way, and they want to make a deal so badly,
01:12but they're afraid to say it because they figure they'll be killed by their own people.
01:17They're also afraid they'll be killed by us.
01:21We're going to talk more about this now with Middle East expert Aaron David Miller,
01:24who joins me from Washington.
01:26Aaron, thanks for taking the time to speak to us.
01:27Here we are now, almost a month into this war.
01:30What are your thoughts on how it has played out so far?
01:33You know, the average length of an interstate conflict since 1815
01:39is roughly three to four months.
01:41We're now a month in,
01:42And I see no indication or evidence that a serious negotiation that would provide a diplomatic
01:49off-ramp that both sides could accept, anywhere close to that.
01:53There's not talk of a major escalation on the part of the United States.
01:57The president has deployed additional options.
02:01And I don't see escalation, frankly, as increasing the level of pain
02:06to bring the Iranians to the table.
02:09So frankly, right now, I think we're nowhere.
02:11Indeed. And I think that begs the question as well.
02:13What is the strategy at this point, particularly from the point of view of the U.S.?
02:18Is there one?
02:20Well, look, the war of choice has now become a war of necessity.
02:27The triangular affair between Iran, Israel and the U.S.
02:31has now morphed and evolved into a genuine international crisis,
02:36certainly an economic crisis.
02:37I mean, the straits are not closed, by the way.
02:40The Iranians are granting preferential access and appear to want to charge fees,
02:46so-called tolls, for transit and passage.
02:53I think the Iranians submitted a letter to the U.N. yesterday that basically said,
02:58straits aren't closed.
02:59We're simply granting access to what they consider to be non-hostile countries.
03:07I don't think there is a strategy.
03:09And that, I think, bespeaks a certain amount of reality that right now there is simply neither Iran or the
03:19U.S.
03:20is under enough pain, nor do they see the prospects of gain of making real concessions that could begin to
03:27create a pathway out of this.
03:30So I think it's a question of endurance, and the Iranians appear to be willing to continue for the foreseeable
03:39future.
03:40So given that, what about these talks that, depending on which side you speak to, are or are not taking
03:45place,
03:45do you see those playing out in any particular way?
03:49And also, what exactly might they be negotiating?
03:53I mean, I've been around negotiations most of my professional career, largely Arab-Israeli negotiations.
03:59But the truth is, to have a serious negotiation that leads to an agreement, you need three things.
04:05You need two countries, two parties that are willing and able.
04:09You don't have that.
04:10You need a sense of shared urgency.
04:14That is to say, there's an equal apportionment of hurry to each side's need to reach a negotiation and reach
04:26an agreement.
04:26And finally, you need a deal that both sides can walk away from and basically say they've won.
04:33I don't see any of those elements in place.
04:37In direct negotiations through the Pakistanis, the Turks won't cut it.
04:41You're going to need serious face-to-face negotiations.
04:46This has become highly technical.
04:48And frankly, I'm not sure either side right now is willing to commit the resources to do that.
04:56And again, can you, in effect, have a negotiation in which most sides are continuing to use military power against
05:07the other?
05:08I'm not sure that's true.
05:09I think, frankly, what would be useful, if the two sides are willing to accept it, would be a 30
05:15-day cessation of hostility,
05:17pausing of all attacks against civilian infrastructure and energy targets and a period of relative calm where you could actually
05:28test the proposition that there is something called a deal that would create an extra ramp.
05:34I just don't see either side, particularly on the Iranian end, they think they're winning, willing to accept a 30
05:41-day cessation of hostilities.
05:43That's what's required.
05:45There's also a question, of course, of Iran's leadership, which has been decimated over the past month.
05:50That begs the question, who's making decisions for Iran at this point?
05:54I mean, I think that's right.
05:56And my colleague at Carnegie, Kremsa-Japur, believes that Trump was looking for Iranian Delcey Rodriguez, all of Venezuela.
06:07But what he's found is an Iranian Kim Jong-un, or maybe more than one Kim Jong-un.
06:11I don't think you have a single leader in the state condition and capacity of Mushtabah Khamenei, the supreme leader's
06:20son, and now new supreme leader, unknown.
06:24Ali Larajani and others in the security establishment have been killed.
06:29Mohamed Khalifa, is he able to bring along an even harder core, harder line Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps cadre to
06:41actually commit?
06:42I just don't think the Iranians right now are willing and ready, frankly, for a serious negotiation.
06:51And I don't think you can do this in phone calls on the back of a cocktail napkin or indirectly
06:58negotiated vis-a-vis the Pakistanis or the Turks.
07:01You need to sit down, create time and space to seriously address and test the proposition that you can, in
07:10fact, have a balance of interest.
07:11And again, one other point.
07:13Donald Trump's view of negotiations is not a win-win.
07:18His view of negotiations is that I win, you lose.
07:21And with that sort of mentality, it strikes me that it's going to make things even harder.
07:27Aaron, thank you for that.
07:28That's Aaron David Miller speaking to me live from Washington.
07:30Thanks so much.
07:31Thanks for having me.
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