00:00One of the countries most affected by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is neighbouring Iraq,
00:05which has been targeted by both sides in the conflict.
00:08Baghdad has close links with both the United States and Iran,
00:12and it was one of the first governments to call for de-escalation early in the war.
00:16But it has also suffered from an awful lot of attacks by both Tehran and by the United States and
00:26Israel.
00:26And for more on this, I can welcome Haider Al-Shaqiri, who is a research fellow with the Middle East
00:31and North Africa program at Chatham House in London.
00:34Good morning, Haider, and thank you for joining us.
00:37How concerned is Iraq at overspill from the conflict, basically infecting its own domestic situation?
00:49Good morning, and thank you for having me.
00:51It is very concerning, and Iraq is in a tight position right now because, as you mentioned, both the U
00:59.S. and Iran are close allies to Iraq.
01:04Iraq needs both countries.
01:06Iraq shares huge borders with Iran, while with the U.S., all of the money and the security agreements for
01:12Iraq are there.
01:13So Iraq is in a tightrope, and the prime minister right now is trying to balance these relationships while getting
01:21pushed from different directions,
01:23from the own political elite inside the country, but also from both Iran and the U.S.,
01:28where they are pushing in different directions towards escalation to the other side.
01:34The prime minister has called for both ambassadors for Iran and the U.S. to call for de-escalation, to
01:42call for stopping the attacks on Iraq.
01:44But those attacks are only continuing and increasing.
01:47They're targeting various sources, not just the PMF or Iran-aligned groups, but others, including the Ministry of Defense,
01:57Peshmerga forces, which are the Kurdish forces, and even civilian infrastructure in the country,
02:01which is becoming more and more dangerous for Iraq and Iraqis.
02:05And this is not just militarily.
02:07So economically as well, Iraq depends on the U.S. a lot, because all of Iraq's oil money goes to
02:13the U.S. before it comes to Iraq.
02:15At the same time, Iraq depends a lot on the Hermus Strait, because Iran is now controlling the Hermus Strait.
02:21All of its oil, 90 percent almost of its oil, goes through the strait.
02:26So all of this making Iraq in a very tough position, and it's the only country in this war where
02:32it's being bombed by both sides and also from within.
02:36Now, as you mentioned there, the war has had widespread economic repercussions.
02:41Some of them come from the same root, as is the case with Iraq, such as the Strait of Hormuz
02:48and the blockade there.
02:49But are there particular economic challenges that the war is causing in Iraq that go beyond that?
02:57Yes, definitely.
02:59So Iraq has announced force majeure in most of its oil fields in the south.
03:05Now more than 70 or 80 percent of oil production has stopped in the country.
03:10And this is causing further stress over Iraq, the production of electricity, of various fuel and various things.
03:22In addition to that, all of Iraq's imports is coming from either the Strait of Hormuz or from land crossing.
03:31The majority of them are now closed, especially the ones that are with Iran.
03:35Right now, Iraq is trying to take care of its people by relying on whatever reserves that it has.
03:45But as the situation escalates and as things become harder, the society will suffer the most.
03:52And Iraqis can see that.
03:54Iraqis have depended on their government for two decades after the 2003 war, after the invasion.
04:01And they still depend on the government that hasn't really had the economic buffers or the cushions that are necessarily
04:08will protect them from such conflicts or such big, bigger precautions.
04:14Now, the bombing of Iran was not entirely unexpected, but the fallout in the region was perhaps not anticipated.
04:26Is there a sense that Iraq has left itself exposed to regional headwinds like this, or is it all out
04:33of its hands?
04:36Well, Iraq has been seeing this, and during the 12-day war, Iraq stayed relatively away from the conflict, despite
04:45being so close to Iran.
04:48Iran-aligned actors in Iraq also stayed, say, quiet and did not do much.
04:53But this is different, and this is some sort of an existential threat to Iran, especially after the killing of
05:01Ayatullah Khmeri.
05:02So Iraqis are seeing this, and Iran-aligned actors inside Iraq have joined this fight.
05:10They decided that this is also their fight, and that dragged Iraq into the war.
05:16At the same time, the U.S. and Israel saw it as an opportunity to go after the Iran-aligned
05:25actor within Iraq,
05:27which is the forces that are part of the PMF, certain forces.
05:32To go after them and start decapitating their leadership, start attacking them.
05:38But the thing is, within the PMF, and this is something that many get wrong, the PMF is a very
05:44wide range of actors.
05:46Some of them are aligned with Iran.
05:47Some of them are not.
05:48Some of them are very much Iraqi nationals.
05:52And now the bombing is targeting different categories of those, and not just the Iran-aligned ones,
06:00to the extent that even army bases are being targeted right now by the U.S.
06:05This is calling for increased escalation by the Iraqi prime minister, and the political forces inside Iraq are pushing the
06:16prime minister to take further action.
06:19So, the impact is being seen.
06:23There were some anticipation of this, but sadly, because Iraq's internal politics are messy right now.
06:33Iraq is in the process of forming a government.
06:36There were elections late last year, and so far there is no fully functional government.
06:42We're still in an acting government, so all of this is keeping Iraq sort of unstable politically,
06:52and this has the implications over the regional conflict and Iraq's position within this conflict and war.
06:58Now, you say there are calls for the government to take action.
07:02Is there absolutely anything the government can do in the face of these attacks?
07:08Well, so right now, many of the foreign missions inside Iraq are leaving, or some of them have very minimal
07:18presence.
07:21These forces are calling also for the expulsion of the U.S. embassy.
07:26But, you know, Iraq can't do much.
07:29Iraq needs the U.S.
07:30The U.S. is a very strategic defense and economic partner to Iraq, as to many countries in the region.
07:38And at the same time, when it comes to escalation militarily, Iraq can't do much as well,
07:45because Iraq cannot control its own air spaces.
07:48Iraq depends a lot on the U.S. when it comes to security agreements.
07:53It's dependent on them as well when it came to fighting ISIS within the international coalition in general.
08:00So all of this is showing that Iraq is in a very tough spot.
08:06And as the conflict, as the war escalates, Iraq will find itself more and more in a position where it
08:16can't do much.
08:16So the only position is here is to de-escalate and to try to talk to the different actors.
08:22Because, as mentioned, Iraq has good relations with the U.S., and Iraq has good relations with Iran.
08:28So one of the things that Iraq can do is to talk to both actors and try to push towards
08:34de-escalation,
08:35which is something that Iraq has hoped they can do before.
08:38But because of the internal dynamics and the messy government formation process that's happening right now,
08:45it is proving difficult right now.
08:47Thank you very much for that.
08:49Haider Al-Shakiri, who's Research Fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House in London.
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