00:00the red sox season officially begins today so four o'clock first pitch on the shahs and star
00:07market red sox radio network and on the odyssey app and that baseball team last year ended up with
00:1789 wins and third in the al east and uh of course eliminated by the by the dreaded new york
00:26yankees
00:26uh and the al wild card series and so i guess i would ask what you're i would ask you
00:34and i would
00:34ask everybody else what the expectation is i this is you know hope springs eternal this is the day
00:41when you can be most optimistic about your baseball team where where where are you on what you expect
00:47from this baseball team this season wiggy my expectation is uh you know similar to last year
00:52where they're fighting for the division and they make the postseason whether it's the playing game
00:59regardless it's just they make the postseason but my expectation they don't have to get farther in the
01:04playoffs than they got last year well i expect them to yeah i expect them to get farther okay but
01:09because
01:09of you know last year when you i think when you looked at it their pitching was their issue when
01:15it came to that that that uh playoff run i feel like the pitching was the biggest issue other than
01:20crochet you know they i think they trotted out bail and gain two maybe and it wasn't very good for
01:26him
01:27um so yeah i would look at that and say you know fight for the division make the postseason win
01:33around
01:34where where are you i say like 91 team i i feel like i'm being a little generous there but
01:41if you think
01:41about the way that alex core was talking last week about this team he was comparing them to 2018
01:46and i don't think that they have the talent that 2018 did at least as we sit here today but
01:51that
01:51was like a hundred plus win team and i i just think 90 wins that would be a huge boost
01:57for all the talk
01:58about is this roster for opening day better than last year's roster for opening day on paper it doesn't
02:05look like it but i am very ready to be proved wrong but playoffs though yeah oh definitely definitely
02:11red sox hit 186 jacks last season are you expecting that they are near that number they are
02:23far below that number they somehow find a way to cobble together the bats uh-huh to be above that
02:30number i would say i would think they that's a good one maybe a tick below because part of that
02:38i guess
02:39you know in that numbers was maybe devers had about 15 for you before he got traded to san francisco
02:45um and bregman maybe had another 18 so yeah i mean it was uh it a story led the team
02:55when it came to
02:56home runs yeah with 25 so i i would imagine you lost devers so i'm no i know it wasn't
03:03a ton of
03:03production unless you're banking on story to hit another 25 which which i think you can be
03:11you could um i think you can i here it comes i'm gonna be accused of uh of of mouth
03:18hugging roman
03:19anthony again but i i think you can expect that roman anthony it's 30 well i mean he promised us
03:2630
03:26okay i don't think he hits 30 so 20 i i yeah i think it's fair to i mean the
03:31shine what's the
03:32over under 20 what i tell you baseball brett adam took the over on 25 i think correct yeah the
03:37number
03:37has soared and before before the world baseball classic we talked about it on this show i believe
03:41it was 18 and a half it is now all the way up to like 25 yeah wow wow that
03:46it's a big jump so i think
03:48it's fair to if he's gonna be the the second coming i think it's fair to expect that that he
03:55might do that for you and will your abreu promised you 30 on this radio show a couple weeks ago
04:01and
04:01for myers and um and then jaron duran i think it's fair to expect that that uh that he's gonna
04:08hit the
04:09ball for you so yeah i mean so don rafael i think he had like 16 last year you know
04:13but that's probably
04:14where i would say he'd be around 16 18 i guess it we talked to those guys breslow cora can
04:22they get
04:22four five guys to hit 20 plus you know some of the names that we just talked about and that
04:30when you
04:31start to look at what their team is you start to ask that question about that number greg can they
04:37have
04:37four or five guys that can exceed that 20 plus and obviously we're just gonna have to wait i i
04:43would
04:43expect trevor's uh story for sure because he generally hits you know a little bit over 20
04:50home runs roman anthony we got to see him do it yeah abreu we got to see him do it
04:54again i'm curious
04:55about when we're making these or when people are making these projections about the home run numbers
05:00and i'll ask shy because he's like the super nerd on the show with somebody like roman anthony i mean
05:06you can't say you can't under underplay exactly so i mean he's super duper nerd yes asking shy like
05:14roman anthony's 18 home run projection seemed like it was the most basic math of taking last year's
05:22home runs and just trying to multiply if he's generally healthy that's so stupid i completely agree like
05:29that's so dumb and so when we sit here and say well doesn't look like anyone is projected to have
05:3430
05:35home runs and then you actually sit down and break out the math and you're like that's how simple it
05:40is that's like fourth grade math and i suck at math but that that should not be how we're projecting
05:45out
05:45the season i thought when people talk about analytics they're talking about something a little more
05:49sophisticated than that most times they are
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