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00:00And now we flip it over to Major League Baseball.
00:02We got a day-night doubleheader today, a 4 o'clock start between Seattle and Detroit,
00:05and then an 8 o'clock start between Toronto and the New York Yankees.
00:08Let's start with game number one, 903-904, a 1-1 series as we head back to Detroit.
00:14Seattle salvaging at least a win at home by knocking off Tarek Skubal.
00:18Gilbert's on the mound for the Mariners today, and the Tigers running out Jack Flaherty.
00:22A total that's listed at 7.5, and a favorite towards Seattle,
00:25who's the road team at about a minus 135 price.
00:29If we look at the weather conditions tonight, rain is expected in the forecast,
00:33with winds blowing out between 10 to 12 miles per hour,
00:37but cooler temperatures, Joe, that'll be in the high 50s during this game.
00:40A weather impact, which is the way it's supposed to be in October baseball.
00:45Yeah, it is.
00:46And, you know, Seattle's first trip, I think, out of the West Coast since, what, September 20th, maybe?
00:5421st?
00:54It's been a hot minute since they have left the confines of their house or the Western time zone.
01:01And by the way, they weren't exactly great in the second half on the road, Donnie, Seattle.
01:06I don't know why they didn't use Logan Gilbert in one of the first two games at home,
01:12given the fact that his home road splits are night and day.
01:16I mean, 2.24 at T-Mobile Park and nearly five away.
01:22But I don't trust Detroit's bats one way or the other, no matter who throws.
01:27Now, they were better at home, but they, too, haven't played there, it feels like, in a hot minute, too.
01:33So it might be a little slow go early on in this game between these two teams.
01:38But I do eventually believe runs will probably be coming in this one.
01:43Weather impact and also understand that that's start time.
01:45You know what happens.
01:46The shadows start to creep in at this time of year.
01:49We'll see if that makes an impact.
01:50That's 7.5 total.
01:52We'll see how that one turns out.
01:53No bigger game on the season for the New York Yankees.
01:55Why?
01:56They lose.
01:56They go home.
01:57And in their own building, you know, changes are going to be made.
02:00But the Yankees, once again, at home, are heavily favored.
02:04Opening line, minus 148.
02:06Line where it sits now, anywhere between minus 152 and minus 156, depending on where you're
02:10shopping at.
02:11And the total, which opened up at 8, dropped to 7.5.
02:14It's Bieber on the mound versus Rondon.
02:16The one thing that we do know is that that bats have really come alive here for Toronto at
02:22home.
02:22Now they go on the road to the Bronx.
02:24Weather conditions, as we check, Joe, between Seattle and Detroit, not so great.
02:28Weather conditions in the Bronx, 72 degrees, no precipitation, and winds blowing out double digits
02:35to left field.
02:36How about that?
02:37Yeah, it's going to be interesting, Donnie, because again, we pointed it out all season
02:43long.
02:43Toronto, fantastic at the Rogers Center.
02:46The problem is, if you watch Toronto at home and then you watch them on the road, you'd be
02:51like, who is this team?
02:52This doesn't look anything even remotely close to the team that I just watched at the Rogers
02:57Center.
02:57And that's been the story all year long.
03:00They are a different team on the road than they are at home.
03:04And I think the Yankees, the best thing that happened to them in that second game blowout
03:09was it didn't end up 13 to 1.
03:12The Yankees' bats finally started to swing and come alive.
03:15So if they can build off of that, Rodon has been the stopper for them all year long in
03:21this kind of spot here.
03:23Bieber, when is the last time he pitched?
03:25It feels like it's been a hot minute, right?
03:28The 26th against Tampa?
03:31That was the last time he has been on the mound.
03:34For a guy like Bieber, who came off the IL, you know, they're creatures of habit, Donnie.
03:39You know this.
03:39For this guy not to have pitched for this long, it could be advantage Yankees early in this
03:45one against Toronto.
03:46And it needs to be.
03:48Take a look at since August the 1st.
03:50Shane Bieber's got 40 and a third innings pitch.
03:52He actually has the lowest XFIP of the starting pitchers on the card today at 3.35.
03:56The man with the highest XFIP on the card since August 1st, it's actually Carlos Rodon
04:00at a 4.14.
04:02If you look at the ERA, you know, has the best.
04:04Here's where the analytics creep into it.
04:06Carlos Rodon is the best ERA of the four starting pitchers on the card today, but the
04:09worst XFIP number.
04:11So something's going to have to give.
04:12But the one thing I look at the Toronto lineup, they're just crushing baseballs right
04:16now.
04:16And I think there's a lot to do with it.
04:18And also sometimes where, you know, you're about in the NHL, right?
04:20Hey, struggling power play.
04:21We'd rather be on the road.
04:22Well, why is that?
04:23Because the crowd's yelling, shoot every two seconds, as opposed to us just making the
04:27best pass.
04:28The reason I bring that up is you don't think the Yankee fans, they are there to see a
04:32victory.
04:32We go through three innings and it's two to one Toronto.
04:35All of a sudden that tide starts to turn.
04:38Superstars get booed and the crowd wants blood.
04:41We'll see if that pops up tonight.
04:42Any thoughts on the Yankees crowd turning against them tonight, Joe?
04:46It depends how it goes.
04:50If they're down eight, nothing after the third inning, you probably want to leave.
04:55Yeah.
04:55You probably don't want to be wearing a Yankee uniform at that point.
04:58But again, depends on how this shapes up early and often with Rodon.
05:05Booney could be out of a job by midnight tonight.
05:08Two games on the docket today, but coming up next is Adam Kaufman.
05:11Let's see who he likes tonight in this major league baseball atmosphere.
05:17Tuesday morning, no better place to be than right here, right now on the Sports Grid Network
05:21on the early line.
05:22It's Donnie Wright said it's Joe Renier.
05:24We got to bring in Adam Kaufman here because we need some help.
05:26There's major league baseball being played today.
05:28A doubleheader 408 and 808 tonight.
05:31One team could be going home.
05:32One team could clinch a series tonight or at least clinch control of a series.
05:37And a lot of fun to talk about, Adam.
05:38Thanks for joining the show this morning with us.
05:41Hey, hey.
05:42Absolutely.
05:43How are you guys doing?
05:44I'm good.
05:45Feeling good.
05:46Renier is loving life.
05:47I'm miserable right now living in my Saturday, Sunday, Monday funk in the city of Philadelphia.
05:52But the bright skies are here.
05:54If you can bet and make some money to sort of counter some of those losses to your favorite
05:58teams, it all makes sense.
05:59So, Adam, let's get right to it today.
06:01408 start.
06:02903, 904 on the rotation.
06:04Seattle heads to Detroit.
06:06It's a 1-1 series.
06:07Gilbert versus Flaherty.
06:08The favorite, though, Seattle.
06:09Seattle at around a minus 132 to minus 135, depending where he's shopping at.
06:13And a total of seven and a half.
06:15Seattle knocked off Scooble.
06:16Got a little bit of those tailwinds, as we like to say, heading to Detroit.
06:21What gives today in this baseball game for you?
06:22Yeah, look, I've had this series backwards so far.
06:25I'm not surprised it's sitting at 1-1, but I figured the Mariners would take game one.
06:29The Tigers would take game two.
06:31Just looking at the pitching matchups, obviously we saw the reverse in a couple of low-scoring
06:34games.
06:35And you could justifiably say the under seven and a half is probably the play here again
06:39in this one.
06:40As we have Gilbert against Flaherty.
06:42Ultimately, I think Seattle prevails.
06:44I was looking.
06:45I saw there's still a minus 130 out there.
06:48I like that, obviously.
06:49That much better.
06:50I think Seattle is just the better team, guys.
06:54I mean, this is a team that has won five of six on the road.
06:56The Tigers have dropped their last seven at home.
06:59The Mariners hit righties very well.
07:01Flaherty has given up 13 runs.
07:03His last three home starts.
07:04He's not pitched all that great.
07:07Pretty good in his lone playoff start, but it wasn't exceptional.
07:09He pitched well against the Mariners.
07:10That was back in July.
07:12It doesn't really mean anything at this point in time.
07:15As far as Gilbert, you know, my only, I guess, kind of concern about Gilbert is the
07:20fact that he hasn't pitched in about two weeks, but he had a 230 ERA last month.
07:25He was excellent and has been excellent really for the last, at this point, you know, six,
07:32seven weeks that he has been on the Hill.
07:34He last faced the Tigers a million years ago in April.
07:37So again, it doesn't really matter.
07:39I'm leaning into the team with the better offense, the better team, the team that is
07:43obviously in, you know, just a better situation, I think, offensively and has the better arm
07:49on the mound.
07:50But again, I won't be the least bit surprised if we get another 3-2 game or something in
07:53that vicinity.
07:54I don't know why they waited to throw Logan Gilbert here into game three on the road is
08:02a little strange here, but I think, you know, your point about it's been a hot minute with
08:07him.
08:08It's been a hot minute since Bieber's pitched as well.
08:11And it's not like he pitched a ton coming off of, you know, missing a season with the
08:15surgery and everything.
08:16Now, almost two weeks between starts has to go to Yankee Stadium here.
08:21What are you thinking we're getting tonight?
08:23Well, Bieber, I mean, to your point, he's barely pitched in the last two and a half years at
08:28this point in time.
08:29You know, he didn't pitch this year at all before late August.
08:31So he's had, you know, a month and a half or so under his belt, but that's after making
08:36only two starts all of last season.
08:38So I guess you could make the argument that he's fresh.
08:40I just think that, you know, you look at this series and Rodon is considerably better
08:46than what you got from in his first playoff outing here of this particular postseason.
08:51So I expect him to be sharper.
08:53You know, this game is in New York.
08:55There's an element of desperation on the part of the Yankees down to out of the Blue Jays.
09:01A couple of lopsided defeats, too.
09:03You got shellacked if, you know, you're the Yanks both times.
09:06We've seen high scoring games, 11 runs, 17 runs, absolutely like the over again in this.
09:12I can't believe that the books are still giving us a seven and a half out there for two games
09:17that are produced offensively the way they have.
09:19And that's not, you know, a function of who's been on the mound.
09:22I mean, the Yankees started Max Freed last time out.
09:25He's ace quality.
09:26He's Cy Young conversation.
09:28They still absolutely lit him up.
09:30And so I think we're going to continue to get a good chunk of runs in this game.
09:34I wouldn't even hesitate to play the over seven and a half.
09:37But on top of that, I like the Yankees to respond.
09:40Now, listen, I don't like the Yankees.
09:42I'm a Boston guy.
09:43But if you're looking at the situation where I think ultimately you got a better pitcher on the mound,
09:48I don't think that much of Bieber in the first place, even though he's been kind of,
09:52you know, I guess more consistent than not in the half dozen starts or so that he's had this year.
09:57I just think the desperation narrative with two great offenses comes into play.
10:01So I like the Yankees to win.
10:03I wouldn't really want to play the minus 160 or so on the money line.
10:07I figure if I'm going to lean into conviction, guys, I'm just going to chase the plus money.
10:12And that is New York on the run line, which is still around plus 145, plus 150.
10:18I think the Yankees get it done.
10:19They get it done comfortably here at home.
10:21And they make this an actual series.
10:24Adam Kaufman here.
10:25We're talking to you this morning on the early line.
10:27Nice weather conditions too in the Bronx with the wind blowing out to left field.
10:29We'll see if those bats translate from Toronto over to the Bronx and see if you can get a big bust out night there for the New York Yankees.
10:35If we look at the price point here, Adam, of this series, the Yankees are a plus 400 here.
10:40The Toronto Blue Jays are a minus 550.
10:42Is there any life in either one of those bets?
10:44Because obviously the team that wins, if it's the Blue Jays, they're going to move on.
10:48But the Yankees, that plus 400 will get lower.
10:50Is there a true chance that the Yankees can run the table and win three straight games against Toronto?
10:55I think it's possible.
10:57I mean, I know it's not the, it's not apples to apples, but they dropped game one against the Red Sox in the wild card round and backs against the wall.
11:05Had to win the next two.
11:07Now this is three, not two.
11:08But even still, I think this is a New York team with its offense, with its pitching is fully capable of reeling off a three game winning streak.
11:14Now, obviously you get two at home and then you got to go to Toronto if you can get that far and take that one on the road.
11:19It's not going to be easy.
11:21It's not the benefit of being at home for every game like they were in the wild card series.
11:25I still see some value in that number.
11:27It's not like it's a full unit play or anything like that.
11:30But I could justify just a little sprinkle because I just don't think, guys, Toronto is very good.
11:36I think what we've seen out of this offense here in these couple of games is misleading, somewhat fraudulent.
11:42You know, a big time outlier.
11:45I will be shocked, you know, whether this game, you know, even Toronto wins it today or this series ends up going three more days.
11:53I'll still be surprised if you get another offensive output out of Toronto that even closely resembles what we saw in the first two games of this series.
12:00This offense, it's, you know, look, it put up runs in the regular season, but absent Bo Bichette, who, as we know, is not available in some of the inconsistencies with some of the other guys in this lineup.
12:10I just don't think that continues.
12:11I think the Yankees are going to have to, you know, power some on and win some lower scoring games.
12:16Doubleheader today, 4-0-8, Seattle and Detroit.
12:19Once again, 8-0-8 p.m., Toronto and New York.
12:22Big stakes on the line.
12:23None bigger than Adam Kaufman breaking it all down with us here.
12:26We'll see if we can get some of that good luck here on the early line and win some of these wagers.
12:29No doubt about it.
12:30Adam, thanks for rising and grinding with us on the early line.
12:33We'll talk to you soon.
12:34As for Donnie and Joe, we'll close this show down next.
12:37Fast-moving show here on a Tuesday morning.
12:39Why?
12:40Because we're having a lot of fun and the information is really good.
12:43But at this time of the show, we like to reach out to the public and say,
12:46which way would you like to go on a certain question that has been asked?
12:49Here's our fave to public poll.
12:58It's early.
12:59We know that.
12:59We like to give easy, simple questions out to the people to ask,
13:02which way are they going on a certain game or also on a certain opinion?
13:07How do you see this poll?
13:08Go to at SportsGrid on our X account.
13:10We asked today, will the Yankees get eliminated tonight?
13:14There was two answers.
13:15Yes and no.
13:17The Yankee haters, they're up early, Joe, and they're voting.
13:20And I voted with the public.
13:2260.9%.
13:24Yes.
13:26That's me, Joe.
13:27How about you?
13:28Wow.
13:29Little faith here.
13:31Absolutely not.
13:34Absolutely not.
13:37Absolutely not.
13:38Having said that, I would never bet them outside of the first five,
13:42which is the only place that I would look to bet them.
13:44Outside of that, I can't help you here.
13:47I mean, that bullpen has had to do nothing but work, Donnie,
13:50for the first two games.
13:52They've had to use a lot of arms in that spot.
13:55But don't be shocked if things start to go haywire,
13:58that a lot of other starters start to take the mound of this game tonight.
14:02So while I can see where the public is going, my heart says, I hope not.
14:07But the reality is I would never bet them beyond the first five innings anyway.
14:12Yeah.
14:13By the way, Carlos Rodon, all hands on deck, obviously, for the Yankees.
14:16Let's see if he can get out of the third inning tonight.
14:18Or is it just mayhem that breaks loose?
14:20And Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s got two extra base hits over the first four innings
14:24in a way that Toronto Blue Jays go.
14:26But the public is saying yes.
14:28But again, there's a lot of hate out there for the Yankees.
14:30I just want to see them get eliminated as opposed to the handicapping aspects
14:34of things where the Yankees are ahead of your favorite tonight.
14:36We'll see how it plays out tonight.
14:37In the Bronx, you know what we need to do?
14:39Another 2-0 sweep should be on deck tonight.
14:42Here's bye-bye-bye.
14:43We got baseball.
14:52We got hockey.
14:53Which way is Joe Ranieri going tonight for his best bet?
14:57Well, I mean, early start here tonight for the Major League Baseball playoffs.
15:03And you mentioned it, Donnie.
15:044-0-8 Eastern time will get Seattle at Detroit.
15:08And I don't understand, unless they figured that this might be an actual elimination game,
15:14except they lost game one.
15:16Seattle is throwing Logan Gilbert, who is by far their best pitcher that is on this roster.
15:22I mean, Brian Wu obviously didn't make the roster because he's injured.
15:26But Logan Gilbert is one of the top five pitchers in all of Major League Baseball,
15:31especially for what he has done here for Seattle this year.
15:35While the ERA splits are a little different, his ex-fit that you talk about, Donnie,
15:42has been right up there with guys like Zach Wheeler for tops in the league.
15:47Doesn't walk a ton, misses a ton of bats.
15:50And here's the big thing, Donnie.
15:51Detroit can't hit right-handed pitching, especially power right-handed pitching.
15:56They haven't hit.
15:57They haven't scored any runs thus far in the playoffs.
16:00They're not scoring any runs against Logan Gilbert either.
16:03I think Flaherty's experience will come into play for Detroit.
16:08That bullpen has been worked.
16:10They need Flaherty to show up big here.
16:12I like the under in the first five.
16:15You can get four.
16:16If you want to go plus money, you can go three and a half.
16:19I just don't see a ton of runs early on in this game at an early start with Seattle leaving the West Coast for the first time in a while.
16:29I'll look at that first five under, Donnie.
16:31Yeah, another big ballpark, too.
16:33You always look at that ballpark up in T-Mobile in the Pacific Northwest and say it's hard to hit a home run.
16:37Same thing technically with Detroit's ballpark.
16:39Cooler temperatures as well.
16:40We'll see how this plays out.
16:41But Joe's been eating on some of these unders, particularly in the first five innings.
16:45We'll see if that continues tonight, and we think that will.
16:47For me, I'm going to say, nope, I'm not really a money line player.
16:50But if I take a look at a money line that's plus money, that's where I want to go.
16:53And, yes, the Yankees are heavy favorites tonight.
16:55The Yankees are expected to win.
16:56But something just isn't clicking with the New York Yankees.
16:59They got boat racing games, one in game two, and I understand we're changing venues.
17:03But I actually think Shane Bieber rested should be ready for this game.
17:06And Carlos Rodon, as I told you, the highest XFIP of the four pitchers on the card from August the 1st.
17:11Do I think it could be a close game?
17:13Yes, I do.
17:13Do I think we get runs in this game?
17:15Yes, I do.
17:15But I also know if Toronto jumps out to an early lead, things are going to get tense in the stands.
17:21Those guys aren't paying $300,000, $400,000, $500,000 for their season tickets behind home plate to sit there and watch another Yankees loss where Boone goes,
17:28hey, we gave it our best shot, and Aaron Judge, maybe next year.
17:32Nonsense.
17:33The Blue Jays turn the screws on the Yankees and eliminate them tonight, Joe.
17:36I'll take them on the money line.
17:38Sounds like misery loves company here, Donnie.
17:43So I guess the Phillies and the Yankees can, you know, make tea time together is what you're telling me.
17:49Yeah, Barnes to the offseason.
17:50Go hit home runs in other ballparks.
17:52Talking to you, Kyle Schwerber.
17:53Uh-huh.
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