00:00Now, reports out of Israel say officials there who've been advocating for Trump to continue the war against Iran were
00:05surprised by the submission of that U.S. ceasefire plan.
00:09We're going to talk more about Israel's involvement in the war now with Middle East expert Dr. H.A. Hellier,
00:14who joins me live from Cairo.
00:16Thank you for taking the time to speak to us, Dr. Hellier.
00:19Are the U.S. and Israel coming to a diverging point on this war in Iran?
00:25Thank you so much for having me. Always a pleasure to be on Fensanqat.
00:28So here's the issue, right?
00:30I think that when it came to the beginning of this war, Washington and the Israelis were more or less
00:38on the same page.
00:39But that represented a certain firmness and certainty on the Israeli side, i.e. they had their goals, they made
00:48them clear, and they've stuck to them.
00:50Whereas on the American side, these have changed.
00:52And they seem to be, you know, very confusing to people in Washington itself.
00:58You had different talking points being given by the president, by the defense secretary, and so on.
01:08Like, I mean, even the idea of regime change.
01:10Now, the American president says that regime change has already been accomplished in Iran, because obviously the top officials are
01:18all gone, they were assassinated, and there's a new crop in charge.
01:23That's not regime change, right?
01:26And certainly not the regime change that the Israelis were looking for.
01:28But let's be also clear about something else.
01:31These are not two equal partners.
01:32The United States is the superpower.
01:35And the Israelis cannot move without the United States giving it a clear indication that it won't stop them.
01:47So it has tremendous leverage.
01:49The question is whether or not it chooses to use it.
01:52Right.
01:52So Israel obviously wants this war to continue.
01:55Today, again, it's targeting government infrastructure in Iran.
01:57Is it at all capable of continuing this war on its own without the U.S. or not at all?
02:04There's capacity, but there's also politics.
02:08Could they continue in terms of capacity?
02:10Yes, they could.
02:11Would they do so if the United States made it clear, no, you must stop?
02:16No, they wouldn't.
02:17So this is why whenever we see these news reports about there being, you know, quote unquote fights between Tel
02:23Aviv and Washington, serious analysts really laugh.
02:27Because the truth is, is that if the United States really wanted to put its foot down, it doesn't need
02:32to do too much.
02:33It has tremendous leverage over the Israelis.
02:36It had tremendous leverage over the Israelis when it came to the genocidal war in Gaza.
02:40It has tremendous leverage of the Israelis when it comes to this war.
02:45There's no question about that, which is why last year, when the Trump administration decided that the war on Iran
02:51was over, they told the Israelis, it's over, cut it out, stand down.
02:56And they did.
02:56And you really think that that could happen again this time?
02:59The U.S. could say to Israel, stand down?
03:01And it would at this point?
03:04If your question is, would the Israelis stand down if the Americans told them to, then yes, of course.
03:12There's no question in my mind.
03:14The question that I have is whether or not the Americans would tell them to.
03:19That's the issue.
03:20It's not about whether or not—Israel is not going to turn around and tell the United States, especially the Trump
03:25administration, no, we're going to do this.
03:27And if you don't like it, you can lump it.
03:31Israel, meanwhile, fighting this war on two fronts.
03:33It's also continuing its strikes on Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon.
03:36Is it capable of eliminating Hezbollah as it wants to?
03:40And if not, what is it trying to do in Lebanon?
03:45So a couple of things here.
03:47When it comes to Lebanon, it's not simply striking, quote-unquote, Hezbollah strongholds.
03:51It has invaded and occupied a large swathe of Lebanese territory, at least 10 percent.
03:58And once 10 percent, as in the new line of control that's supposed to now be the Litani River.
04:05And I suspect that they will go much further than that.
04:08Is it capable of wiping out Hezbollah?
04:10No, it isn't.
04:12By the way, Hezbollah being a very odious character and actor not only in Lebanon, but in the region more
04:18generally.
04:19But you can't wipe it out.
04:21Certainly not like this.
04:23The next point is that also you've seen very significant Israeli political figures, including within the cabinet of the current
04:31prime minister, indicating that they want this occupation of Lebanese territory to become permanent.
04:37And you've seen very senior Israeli political figures talk about how part of the south of Lebanon, at least, ought
04:47to be annexed.
04:48And you've seen this regularly from Israeli political figures, not just in recent weeks or months or even years.
04:55But, you know, you go much further than that.
04:57You see how the issue of Gaza, the West Bank, these are territories for many that ought to be annexed
05:04to Israel.
05:06The Golan Heights, which is, of course, part of Syria.
05:09And now talk about Lebanon as well.
05:11So I think people ought to be very, very cautious about making this simply about Hezbollah.
05:17Hezbollah ought to ought to subject itself to the authority of the Lebanese government.
05:23There ought to be no discussion or debate about that.
05:25But this is certainly not the way to try to peel away support from Hezbollah within Lebanon itself.
05:31On the contrary, if the Israelis move in further in this regard, I think most Lebanese are very concerned about
05:38what would happen to the very existence of Lebanon as a nation state.
05:42Dr. Hellyer, thank you so much for that, speaking to me live from Cairo.
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