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00:11It is the 17th day of the Iran-Israel-US war and Lebanon is increasingly being drawn into
00:18the heart of the conflict. Today, the Israeli military has announced it's begun what it's
00:23calling limited ground operations against Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon. Now, hundreds
00:29of thousands of Lebanese living in the south have already fled their homes under mandatory
00:34evacuation orders from Israel. France 24's Delano D'Souza tells us more.
00:40An Israeli army handout shows its forces in southern Lebanon. According to Israel, troops
00:47from the 91st Division began what they're calling a limited targeted ground operation
00:52in recent days. This after evacuation orders were issued for southern Lebanon and suburbs
00:58around Beirut. The country was dragged into the US in Israel's war with Iran after Tehran's
01:04proxy Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on the 2nd of March.
01:09Hezbollah is working accordingly to instructions from Tehran, not from Beirut. They are acting
01:16against the will of Lebanon and its citizens. Since the ceasefire, November 2024, Lebanon hadn't
01:27really done what it should have done in order to dismantle Hezbollah and we see now the results.
01:36Israel's ground operation in Lebanon comes following a relentless air campaign targeting what they claim is
01:42infrastructure linked to Hezbollah. But it's an assessment Lebanese authorities dispute.
01:49The Israeli occupation had unfortunately been claiming that ambulances were being used for non-health and
01:56non-medical purposes. We deny this. It's unjustified. These vehicles are transporting the wounded and the sick,
02:03and these nurses, doctors and paramedics are going in those vehicles with their own lives at risk.
02:08All international laws and the Geneva Conventions protect these vehicles, yet they're being targeted.
02:15Since Lebanon was catapulted into the ongoing war with Iran, over 830,000 people have been displaced.
02:23And calls from Paris for Hezbollah to lay down its weapons and for Israel to refrain from a ground offensive
02:28have so far gone unanswered.
02:33Well, I'm pleased to welcome to the program now, Raz Zimt. He's the director of the Iran and Shiite Axis
02:40Research Program at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies.
02:45Hello to you. And thanks for speaking to us today, live from Tel Aviv.
02:50Hello, good afternoon.
02:51Look, let's start with Lebanon, if we can, given what we just saw in that report that ground operations have
02:57begun now in the south of the country.
02:59Help us understand what the goal is here. Are we talking about a limited campaign against Hezbollah or is this
03:07really about trying to destroy a group that's already been significantly weakened by Israel?
03:12Well, I don't think that anyone in Israel really believes that it is possible to destroy, to eliminate Hezbollah, but
03:20to move forward towards trying and disarm Hezbollah.
03:24We have to understand that we are more than a year after the ceasefire sign between Hezbollah and Israel in
03:30November 2024.
03:32And despite all the efforts made by the Lebanese army and the Lebanese government to move forward towards disarm Hezbollah,
03:40Hezbollah is still there.
03:41And so the combination between Israeli airstrikes and ground offensive, as limited as it might be, are aimed to achieve
03:49this goal.
03:50Israel has had, though, a rather checkered operation in South Lebanon over the course of several decades.
03:57It occupied a part of South Lebanon for a good while.
04:00There was the war in 2006 where some analysts say that despite Israel's clear sort of superior military power,
04:09it was Hezbollah who was pretty successful in that war.
04:13So in a practical sense, do you think we're looking at an occupation again of South Lebanon as happened during
04:21the civil war?
04:21Well, I certainly hope that that won't happen.
04:26The Israeli objective is to have some limited ground offensive, to degrade as much as possible Hezbollah infrastructures and posts,
04:35which were reconstituted by the organization after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah,
04:42and then to return at least to the posts where Israel occupied after the ceasefire.
04:48We all hope that a more stable and sustainable status quo will be achievable,
04:55but it mostly depends on the ability and willingness by the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah.
05:02You know, you talk about a limited campaign in the south of Lebanon.
05:05What about Beirut, the Lebanese capital, under now parts of it, an unprecedented evacuation order by the Israeli army?
05:14What's Israel's strategy there?
05:17Well, here again, the problem is that since the fire, Hezbollah has not agreed to disarm itself,
05:23despite, again, all the efforts made by both Israel in the south and the Lebanese government in Beirut
05:29and sometimes in the Beka Valley.
05:31And so there are still very considerable and significant infrastructures by Hezbollah
05:37to manufacture rockets, drones and missiles.
05:40And one of the main processes of this campaign is, again, to degrade as much as possible Hezbollah's capabilities.
05:48OK, let's look at Iran then.
05:50The Israeli military saying just today that they still have thousands of targets to hit in Iran.
05:58What's your sense as to what these targets are?
06:00Is Israel looking now at Iran's nuclear program?
06:05So I would say that there are three main families, if you'd like, of targets.
06:11One is the targets which are affiliated with the regime itself, for example,
06:18Revolutionary Guard, Basij, law enforcement forces, bases and headquarters.
06:24And targeting those assets aimed to not to topple the Iranian regime.
06:29Because, again, I don't think that anyone really believes that it's possible to topple the Iranian regime
06:35through aerial strikes, but to undermine and weaken the Iranian regime and perhaps to pave the way.
06:41So after the war, if the protests erupt again in Iran,
06:45it might be more easy for the protesters in Iran to deal with the Iranian regime.
06:50So that's one issue.
06:51The second issue would be to deal with the remains of Iran's nuclear facilities,
06:58mainly with the facilities which the Iranians were trying to reconstitute after the 12-day war in June.
07:04And the last families of targets would be those concerning the missile capabilities.
07:13And here we have to remember that back in June, what Israel mostly did was either to destroy the launchers
07:19or to block the entrances and the exits of the underground compounds of the missile.
07:26This time, the aim of both the U.S. and Israel is to try and degrade not just the launchers
07:31themselves,
07:32but Iran's ability to reconstitute its ballistic missile program by eliminating as much as possible its production line as well.
07:41And look, you mentioned earlier on in your answer there about the Iranian people possibly now having a bit of
07:49space
07:50to rise up against the Iranian regime.
07:53But, you know, we know this is an existential fight for the leaders in Iran.
07:58And for the moment, we've seen none of that.
08:00Look, no defections, no protesters out in the streets.
08:03So did Israel, do you think, miscalculate what would happen after its bombing campaign began?
08:11No, I think it was very obvious that as long as the bombing continues, as long as the planes and
08:17missiles are in the air,
08:19nobody should expect the Iranian people to go back to the streets.
08:23I mean, we all remember that during the 12-day war, during the campaign itself,
08:28the protests which were happening in Iran before the war actually ceased.
08:33And it took about six months until the protest movement in Iran resumed.
08:37So I would say that the best expectation in Israel, and probably also in the U.S.,
08:43is that when the war is over or almost over and the Iranians are no longer concerned with the possibility
08:50of being hit by the missiles and planes, then perhaps they would reconsider going back to the streets,
08:58assuming that this time the Iranian regime will be weakened enough,
09:02and that could perhaps create a different balance of power between the regime,
09:08its supporters on the one hand, and the protesters on the other hand.
09:11And look, the Israeli army saying that it anticipates about another three weeks at the moment of conflict in Iran.
09:20Donald Trump, though, last week sort of saying, look, we've done really well.
09:24We kind of want to wrap things up quite soon.
09:26Is there a real difference now between the American and the Israeli endpoint and when they want this to stop?
09:34I'm not sure.
09:35At the end of the day, it's going to be a decision to be made by President Trump.
09:39I don't think that it's very likely that if President Trump decides at some point to stop this war,
09:45Israel will continue to do that.
09:47But I think that the U.S. and Israel are very much coordinated in trying to achieve the military objectives,
09:56meaning degrading Iran's capabilities as much as possible.
10:00And I think they both understand that it might take several weeks to achieve that.
10:06Look, I did want to ask you about how this is all playing out on the home front in Israel.
10:11But before I do, let's watch this report that looks at that very question.
10:21The U.S.-Israeli campaign in Iran is mainly being fought in the air.
10:26But just how long can Israel go on?
10:29With the support of the United States, the Israeli military claims it is in it for the long haul.
10:34It starts with weeks of planning, months of planning, that's sitting on a level of coordination that's been worked on
10:42for years.
10:43But a lengthy conflict could be more costly, with its ammunition stocks in limited supply,
10:48a source of concern for its military leaders.
10:51The Jewish state has also endured repeated missile and drone strikes,
10:54which must be intercepted and destroyed by the famous Iron Dome for short-range rockets and artillery.
11:00David Sling, to counter medium-range rockets and cruise missiles,
11:04and Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, designed to intercept ballistic missiles.
11:09Each interceptor costs 3 million euros.
11:12And as the conflict with Iran rages on, Israel informed the U.S. this week
11:16that it is running critically low on ballistic missile interceptors, according to U.S. website Semaphore.
11:22If there were to be a problem with interceptors, we would indeed have to end the war and reach an
11:27agreement.
11:28But if our enemies think they will win this war because we are running out of interceptors,
11:33then they are mistaken.
11:36Israel is fighting a second front in the war in the Middle East in southern Lebanon with its forces,
11:41targeting the pro-Iranian Hezbollah group.
11:45150,000 reservists have been called up, and Israeli tanks are at the border.
11:50Leaders in Israel and the United States have indicated that the conflict against Iran could last for weeks.
11:57And Raz Zimt is still with me from Tel Aviv.
12:01Look, we got a sense there in that report of the literal cost of this war.
12:05It's expensive.
12:07Each incoming missile costing about 3 million euros to intercept, we heard there.
12:12And Israelis, we imagine, are rather fatigued.
12:14I mean, there's been wars going on on multiple fronts now for years.
12:18Are people worn out?
12:20How long do you think this really can go on for?
12:22Well, actually, according to the polls carried out by several Israeli institutions,
12:27including, by the way, the INSS,
12:29it shows that a remarkable, significant majority of the Israelis support this war,
12:34despite the economic and psychological impact of the war.
12:38And, of course, it's very uncomfortable, despite the fact that the number of missiles from Iran has reduced very significantly.
12:45But still, it certainly creates a lot of tension in Israel.
12:51But I think that the expectation in Israel is that as long as it takes to undermine and to degrade
12:58as much as possible Iran's capabilities,
13:01we should endure that because there is only one thing which is worse or considered as worse by most Israelis,
13:09is that at the end of the day, it will take only a few months until we are forced into
13:14another round of war with Iran.
13:16So if the Israelis were told, OK, let's endure for several more weeks,
13:21but at the end of the day, it will be much more difficult for Iran to recover,
13:25then I would say that the majority of the Israelis are ready to accept that.
13:30Last question for you, given your work on the so-called Shia axis.
13:35We've seen Hezbollah get involved in this war.
13:37Obviously, Iran is at the very center of all of this.
13:40One group, though, that we haven't heard very much from is the Houthis in Yemen.
13:45What's your sense as to why they're not getting involved?
13:48Yeah, that's one of the questions we are trying to give an answer.
13:53We don't really have a good answer.
13:56One possibility is that they want to maintain or to leave their capabilities
14:01to the next stage of possible escalation in the region.
14:05The other one is that they are very much concerned with the possibility
14:09that if they engage themselves in a confrontation with Israel and the United States,
14:14they will have to pay a price, and there is no guarantee
14:16that if there is a ceasefire between Israel and the United States and Iran,
14:20this will also include the authorities.
14:22So they might be also under some kind of constraint
14:27following more than two years of being engaged in this regional war in the Middle East.
14:34All right, Rad Zim talking to us there from Israel's Institute for National Security Studies.
14:39Thank you very much.
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