00:00I think expectations are definitely shifting or have shifted to the belief that this is likely
00:05going to go on for a while and that the supply effect is now such that prices are going to
00:09stay
00:09high for the rest of this year. High relative to what we thought that they would be, right?
00:13When we entered 2026, there was this broad expectation that this was going to be a pretty
00:17soft market, that there was going to be an imbalance of supply over demand. Demand growth
00:21was going to be pretty soft, pretty sluggish. And that was going to keep prices low. It was going
00:25to keep them in the 60s, maybe in the 50s per barrel. That has all changed now. I think
00:29seeing oil prices fall below $75 a barrel by the end of the year is pretty unlikely,
00:35even if this conflict wraps up very quickly. The Brent front month being at about 113, 112,
00:41I think that's approaching realistic expectations because Hormuz is still closed because some
00:48amount of crude is getting out via Saudi and UAE pipelines, but those pipelines are vulnerable
00:53and they could be disrupted. And as we've seen, the Iranians have the ability to do pretty
00:56significant damage to energy infrastructure if they really go for it. I mean, Joe, you mentioned
01:00the damage done to the Qatar facility last night. That was, I believe, one missile that got through
01:06and caused enough damage that they'll have to keep the facility off for a long time and
01:11has now cut production for years to some extent. And so that's one missile. And I think they could
01:18do more if they wanted, they could go after tankers more aggressively.
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