00:23।
00:32and the most important reason is crude oil prices.
00:36In the last 1 month, the price of 6.4% of the price is 6.5% of the
00:42price.
00:42If we compare it, then the emerging markets are 4.4% of the price.
00:49Developed markets are more than 1.5% of the price.
00:52But if we go to exact numbers, it is 1.5% of the price.
00:55The price is more than 3.5% of the price is 0.5% of the price.
01:07The price is when the price is equal to 1.5% of the price.
01:12Our prices are less than 2.0% of the price.
01:15And the price is still a year on which price is the price.
01:19The price of this price rate is worth 6.6% of the price.
01:25This is the Middle East Conflict.
01:30In the end of the year, US and Israel of Iran for Air Strikes,
01:34Global Oil market in panic,
01:36Crude Oil from $100 per barrel,
01:40which reached the beginning of the year of Russia-Ukraine war,
01:45which was the highest level.
01:47Now, the effect of the effect of the US,
01:51The situation is inside range from 4.6% ,
01:5610-year GSEC, 6.72% ,
01:59and the average average average of 1.5%-0.
02:03The situation is why there is still even 20% of油 and oil industry to flow.
02:13If there's disruption to it,
02:16It's going to affect the global energy supply.
02:18Now this beach, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait have some oil-gas facilities in production shutdowns
02:25because the storage capacity is filled.
02:28The whole Gulf region has a large amount of oil supply.
02:34Qatar has the largest LNG facility in the world,
02:37the global LNG supply has a large amount of 20% from the temporary route.
02:42Now this whole situation, we are telling you,
02:47but the global brokerages what you are saying,
02:49you will understand.
02:51After this video, standard chartered,
02:53for standard chartered,
02:55they have high levels of 4 big channels.
02:59First, inflation channel.
03:01Because in India's CPI basket, commodities,
03:04it can be less than 12%.
03:06The second is external channel.
03:10Because in India's CPI,
03:12it can be less than 80% of the crude oil import.
03:15The third is the fiscal impact.
03:20The third is the fiscal impact.
03:20The third is the fiscal impact.
03:22The third is the fiscal impact.
03:25The fourth is the risk sentiment.
03:27The fourth is the risk sentiment.
03:39The fourth is the fiscal impact.
03:43The third is the fiscal impact.
04:09भारत की GDP growth मजबूत रहने की उम्मीद है
04:11US-India trade deal और growth focused union budget medium term growth को support कर सकते हैं
04:17और इसके अलावा RBI पहले ही करीब 125 basis point के repo rate cuts कर चुका है
04:23और लगभग 15 lakh crore liquidity system में inject किया गए है
04:27वहीं सरकार ने income tax cuts और GST rationalization जैसे
04:31कदाम उठाकर domestic demand को भी support किया
04:34अब इसी वज़ह से standard chartered ने 2026 के लिए equities per overweight stance पर करार रखा है
04:41उनका मानना है कि आने वाले साल में company की earnings double digit growth दिखा सकती है
04:46अलाकि उचे तेल के दाम भारतिया बाजार के लगभग 20 वी सदी हिस्से पर negative impact डाल सकते हैं
05:14और इसे में निवेश्रण नीटी की यानि investment strategy की बात करें तो रिपोर्ट साफ क्याती है कि इस समय
05:20पैनिक सेलिंग या फिर cash पढ़ाने की जरूरत बिल्कुल नहीं
05:23बैतर दरीका है diversified portfolio रखना यानि equities, bonds और commodities का balance बना कर रखना
05:31इसके साथ ही gold को एक मजबूत hedge भी मान रहे है standard chartered इतिहास बताता है
05:36कि stock inflation risk के समय सोना निवेशिकों के लिए सबसे बड़ा protection बनता है
05:41इसलिए brokerage ने gold को overweight कर दिया है
05:44कुल में लाकर के जो statement कह रहा है वो साफ संदेश है कि अभी बाजार में volatility, geopolitics और
05:51oil shock का दबाव जरूर है
05:52लेकिन भारत की fundamental story अभी भी मस्कूत है
05:55और अगर middle east tension काम हो जाएगी तो ये गिरावट आगे चलकर market recovery का एक बड़ा मौका मद
06:00सकती है
06:01अगर market recovery का बड़ा मौका आएगा या नहीं आएगा ये तो middle east tension काम होने के बाद ही
06:05पता चलेगा फिलहाल बाजार वालटाइब है
06:07इसलिए अगर आपको बाजार में निवेश करना है रिस्क प्रोफाइल को जरूर देखें और financial advisor की राएग जरूर देखें
06:13देखते हैं ये गड़ाटांस
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