00:005 OMC's, this is a great reward for people.
00:03This is a reward for people.
00:06Because they are more than crude oil prices and they were panicked.
00:10That they are not going to be a good effect on petrol diesel prices.
00:14Look, the inflation of the people in the world can be affected by the inflation.
00:19If they are more than crude oil prices, they will increase their weight.
00:22Because if they are not going to be a good effect on petrol diesel prices.
00:26If they are going to be a good effect on transportation costs,
00:28you can see the gas in your house, you can see the gas already panicking,
00:33that means you have affected the whole human life.
00:37Now, the government has made a big decision.
00:42The government has reduced the excise duty on petrol and diesel.
00:47So, the excise duty on diesel was already 10 rupees,
00:50and now it is zero,
00:52and the petrol was 13 rupees, which was 13 rupees.
00:56So, it is 10 rupees here.
00:58Now, it is a direct benefit.
01:00Those who understand this,
01:01that the petrol diesel will be reduced,
01:03then we will tell you that it is not reduced.
01:06But the shock was taken,
01:08because the crude is 106-107 dollars,
01:11and when the crude will import it,
01:14we will reach 130-140 dollars.
01:19So, to observe the shock,
01:22we will try to reduce the excise duty,
01:23and we will try to reduce the pressure on the OMC's.
01:27That means,
01:28we will not have petrol and diesel,
01:31at least,
01:31keep this route.
01:33And the whole thing is,
01:34today,
01:34we have seen a positive reaction on OMC's today.
01:37We have seen a positive reaction in the stock market.
01:39We have also fallen in the bazaar.
01:40Now,
01:40the oil gc and energy basket of other stocks,
01:43which were the oil in India,
01:44as well as its oil and its oil maintainer,
01:49which were remaining in today's top gainers.
01:50So,
01:51when, this kind of stock Herschel's top gainers coming,
01:56rather than還有 the bazaar to be more pressurized on the front,
01:59so we thought that when the crude shock absorbed, the government has tried to do the same way,
02:06at least the OMCs don't feel pressure and the stock can also see positive reactions in the stock.
02:15Absolutely, yes, you are right, but this is valid until the crude oil price is under $110.
02:31So yes, short term, they are positive, they are bullish, but you don't know how the oil turns out,
02:38because if you look at it, every Friday at night Trump does something.
02:49So Trump generally, it's his way of doing, that when the markets are closed on Friday night,
02:55he does something, so that he has 48 hours away for the damage control.
03:01That I have done something on Friday night, I have two days, I will talk about it,
03:05so that the market doesn't get hurt. So it is very interesting to see what Trump does ahead,
03:10because if you will see, then Iran's story also, if you track geopolitically,
03:15it's building on two sides. It's building on two sides.
03:17On one side, you have to think that the U.S. will be desperate,
03:24they want to do a ceasefire, so that the state of Hormuz will open,
03:27because now the other countries start to pressurize them.
03:31Japan, South Korea, they are all pressurizing the U.S.
03:44because of your reason, I am not getting oil. How is that fair?
03:48So at the end of the day, Trump's pressure is that they will ceasefire.
03:52That is, this is one side of the story.
03:54Now you will see, Trump has said that,
03:57I will ceasefire for 10 days for 10 days,
03:59and in April 6, I am going to do a ceasefire.
04:02It's a very positive news.
04:04This thing, like for 5 days, the ceasefire announced,
04:07I think, GIF nifty shot up 600-700 points.
04:10The news was announced Tuesday,
04:12600-800 points GIF nifty was announced.
04:13But if you will see, now 10 days, the ceasefire announced,
04:17then you will see that Nifty is down by 500 points.
04:20So this is the main reason, because if you will see,
04:23the second side of the story is,
04:25that U.S. has left more ships with their Marine troops.
04:28The U.S. Marine commanders have left for Iran.
04:32So people are also expecting,
04:33this is one side of the story, it's a speculation.
04:36Like, if you try geopolitics,
04:37there is one other speculation that,
04:39over the weekend,
04:40Shahid Trump has his on-ground troops in Iran.
04:44So one side, maybe he is just trying to portray,
04:47that I want to ceasefire,
04:48and on the other side,
04:50because if that happens,
04:52it's going to be a massacre.
04:54Because if the U.S. troops will be in Iran,
04:56then it's a full-scale warfare.
04:58Iran will become the state of Hormuz,
05:00that no ship will not know,
05:02so that the U.S. troops will be pressure.
05:03So, as much as I want,
05:06that the war will remain,
05:07but for this,
05:09both of the sides have to come to a conclusion.
05:12And, I am seeing this,
05:14because it's like,
05:16the two sides are extreme.
05:17If you see Trump's wants,
05:19Trump is saying that,
05:20Iran has a nuclear weapon,
05:21which has enriched uranium,
05:24basically,
05:26the atomic energy agency,
05:29they are out.
05:30They should not,
05:31they will sign a paper,
05:32that they will not make any nuclear weapons and stuff.
05:35If you will see Iran,
05:38Iran is like,
05:39that,
05:39I am not saying that,
05:40I, in fact,
05:42want money for all the damages,
05:44that you have done.
05:45Second state of Hormuz,
05:46I will open up to my opinion,
05:48and third,
05:49Iran is like,
05:49that,
05:49that,
05:52I don't think that,
05:53both the sides are ready to come,
05:55on a mid ground.
05:56Whereas,
05:56if you see,
05:57the negotiations are already started.
05:59Pakistan,
05:59they are doing negotiations.
06:01But, I don't think,
06:02Iran,
06:02Pakistan,
06:23is going to come and have a negotiation.
06:28But,
06:29it is,
06:30it is very,
06:31you know,
06:32interesting,
06:32to see.
06:33And also,
06:34you have to look at the weekend,
06:35because,
06:35Friday,
06:36I think,
06:37you should sit with popcorn at night,
06:39because Trump is going to do something.
06:40So,
06:41it also depends on what happens over the weekend.
06:43So,
06:45the price,
06:46I think,
06:47100,
06:47110 dollars,
06:48then,
06:49this OMC companies are okay,
06:50because,
06:50the excise duty,
06:51but,
06:52you see crude price shooting above 120.
06:56Again,
06:56the pressure on them,
06:57will be back tomorrow.
06:58For them,
06:59to have a sustainable long-term rally,
07:02crude,
07:0270 dollars,
07:0460,
07:0570 dollars,
07:06which,
07:06in short term,
07:07has been seen.
07:0860,
07:0970 dollars,
07:10which,
07:10when Iran war started,
07:12will only be a dream,
07:13it will only be 60,
07:1470 dollars.
07:14Yeah,
07:14that will not be the short term.
07:16I will not be the last question,
07:18Harcher,
07:19how do you expect the expectations,
07:21next week,
07:21how will we keep the expectations?
07:22We started on Monday,
07:24and you said,
07:25it was Monday,
07:26but,
07:26in the meantime,
07:27the market said,
07:28there was an opportunity,
07:29there was an opportunity,
07:30there was an opportunity,
07:32but,
07:32what will the next week,
07:33will be the best possible?
07:36Today,
07:37the main crash came,
07:38its main reason is,
07:39that people don't want to carry their positions,
07:41over the weekend.
07:42It is not a reason,
07:45that people don't want to carry their positions.
07:46So,
07:46you've seen the most,
07:47that,
07:47you've seen the long unwinding,
07:50that,
07:50the relief rally,
07:51which,
07:53nobody wants to take their positions over the weekend.
07:56So,
07:57the first,
07:58the major major reason,
07:59I think was this.
08:00Second,
08:01what do I think,
08:02that,
08:03I think,
08:04what the next week,
08:04is,
08:05what will happen,
08:06some big decision making,
08:08would be this weekend,
08:09what will happen,
08:11if,
08:11If if its P stocks will be sold through, there are 3 probabilities that if its P stocks will be
08:17sold through,
08:18that they decide something that 10 days will not do anything and 1 month ceasefire and talk about it.
08:25So I think crude oil is 100 dollars to be below 90, 90-92 dollars to be settled.
08:32If that happens, if you happen, then in the Nifty you will see a 1000 point rally as a relief
08:38rally.
08:38That crude oil is back to 90, things are in the talking phase.
08:43But if there is no status, there is no change over the weekend, no firing does not happen,
08:47which I don't think is going to happen.
08:48Because Israel, which day Monday announced, ceasefire will not ceasefire.
08:54So I don't think that is going to happen, status quo.
08:56But if there is no status quo, I think that the Nifty Monday will see a little bit of a
09:01buying.
09:02Because over the weekend there is nothing.
09:04So I think that people are afraid of buying money on the weekend,
09:06that people are afraid of buying money on the weekend.
09:08If there is nothing, then I think that you will see a little bit of a bad thing.
09:12But if anything happens over the weekend,
09:16then you will see crude oil in the same way because of a panic jerk.
09:19And whatever happens this weekend, it's not going to be small.
09:22Because two days are in extreme stages.
09:25Trump is like, I will blow off your energy infrastructure.
09:27He is saying that I will give you a salination plant in Middle East.
09:31So now it's not about small yields.
09:35Now we are talking about this, they will do it or they will do it?
09:37Or the troops will get out of it?
09:38They are all big thumpies.
09:40So if any of that happens, I hope nothing happens.
09:43But if any of that happens,
09:44you will see crude oil in the same way.
09:47And you will see the markets will start again with the Black Monday.
09:50So hopefully nothing happens like that.
09:53But next week is going to be very dicey.
09:56It also depends a lot on the next week's developments.
10:00But I think they should slowly move towards the P stocks.
10:03So I think one-two weeks should it happen.
10:05Trillion-lary basic P stocks, they have to move.
10:08Because both of them desperately need it.
10:12US has to open the state of Hormuz,
10:14because people are pressurizing the US.
10:16The US is very much stretched.
10:18Its resources are very stretched.
10:21You will see Ukraine,
10:22Middle East,
10:23and Israel is stretched.
10:25And if you have heard,
10:25I don't know if you have heard this,
10:26China has already
10:29fighter jets and ships
10:29to Taiwan's ship
10:32So if this war continues,
10:34China will not leave this opportunity.
10:36China will say,
10:37there will be no opportunity like this,
10:39because the US is completely stretched.
10:41No one has to stop.
10:42So China will also go and capture Taiwan.
10:44So this war has to stop,
10:47because the US will see.
10:48And second,
10:49Iran also wants to stop this war,
10:51because Iran has no air defense left.
10:54If you have any plane on Iran,
10:56Iran will not intercept on Iran.
10:58So the US can go and do mad carpet bombing.
11:01And Israel has a lot of missiles.
11:03But the missiles of the launchers,
11:05they are very limited,
11:06because the US has blued all of them.
11:08So I personally think that,
11:09Iran also wants to desperately talk.
11:12But Iran doesn't talk like this,
11:14because Iran knows that if I have left this time,
11:16then these people will go back 6 months,
11:17cease-tar and then come back to bomb.
11:20So Iran wants a permanent solution.
11:23The US also wants a permanent solution.
11:25And both of them are desperate.
11:26So it's very interesting to see,
11:28how this folds out over the weekend.
11:30Okay.
11:31And next week,
11:32everything in the Bazaar,
11:33it will be on the basis of these conditions.
11:37Absolutely.
11:38Yes.
11:39And we will see on Monday,
11:40then how the mood of the Bazaar's mood is.
11:42The expectation is that,
11:43it's not going to panic and panic,
11:48but Harshal's portfolio will have to look at it.
11:51But we will have to look at Harshal's portfolio.
11:51It will have to look at it,
11:52but we will have to look at it.
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