00:00Potentially a postponement of this big summit taking place.
00:03Xi and Trump looks like it's in jeopardy for the latest.
00:07Let's bring in our chief North Asia correspondent Stephen Angle here in Hong Kong with us
00:10to talk us through will it or won't it.
00:13You're asking me my opinion?
00:14I don't think it will go forward at this point.
00:17I think it will be an absolute face-saving move by both sides
00:20because already Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, is saying
00:23it's a false narrative if you're believing that Donald Trump is going to be postponing this
00:28because he doesn't get an answer from Xi Jinping on whether he's going to help,
00:33whether the Chinese are going to help, you know, safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz
00:37or even potentially send warships of their own,
00:41which I think is a bit of a long shot, to say the least.
00:46But again, if that summit does go ahead, what are the deliverables going to be for the two sides?
00:52It will potentially set up for a failure for both sides.
00:57And that's not what they want.
00:59They're supposed to be signing or at least cementing this truce
01:02and promoting, as Jameson Greer talked about,
01:06this new economic mechanism to basically formalize trade relations and economic relations.
01:16That's what he talked about after the Paris meeting with He Lee Fung.
01:19But all cards are off the table if Donald Trump's number one goal right now is to get his allies
01:25and he included China on board to help calm the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
01:31If he is on camera with Xi Jinping in Beijing and he asked Xi,
01:37are you going to support the peace efforts in the Strait of Hormuz?
01:41What's Xi Jinping going to say?
01:44He's going to say no, probably.
01:46Or if he doesn't say anything, it's not a win for Donald Trump.
01:50So I think...
01:53That's not a situation.
01:54It's not a situation.
01:55You want to risk.
01:55Your handlers are not going to...
01:57Xi Jinping's handlers are not going to put him in that situation.
02:00And if Donald Trump is listening to his advisers,
02:02he's probably not going to put himself into that situation because it's a no-win situation.
02:06Yeah, and I guess the fact that that's such concern that this would be the elephant in the room
02:11if not addressed directly also maybe underscores just how many deliverables
02:16haven't been agreed on just yet either.
02:18So you mentioned this Paris meeting and you have an idea of a trade mechanism,
02:23but what else was discussed there?
02:25And would you say any sort of progress was made in Paris as well?
02:29Well, I think that the fact that they're talking and they're trying to reach
02:32what Jameson Greer called a sort of U.S.-China Board of Trade, as I said, this mechanism.
02:38And also the Vice Commerce Minister, Li Changgang, he kind of put it even more vaguely.
02:43He said the two sides discussed the idea of establishing a working group.
02:48Oh boy, that gets you excited.
02:49A working group that would examine promoting cooperation mechanisms for bilateral trade investment.
02:55So they have a concept of a plan of an idea, right?
02:58So yes, they're moving the ball forward to kind of formalize that truce that was reached in December.
03:05But again, you're absolutely right, Annabelle.
03:08The elephant in the room is the war in the Middle East where China has vast investments
03:12and vast interests, obviously, as much of their oil imports have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
03:18That would overshadow everything else at this point, two and a half weeks out from the planned summit.
03:25Yeah.
03:26It's not going to happen.
03:27No.
03:27Sorry, I go on record.
03:28It's not.
