00:00Seems like a pretty good set of numbers. What's your take on them?
00:03Sure. There are three takeaways from here.
00:05Number one, of course, there's a better than expected activity data in January, February, cross-board.
00:11Number two, there's still notable divergence between the external demand from exports versus kind of still soft domestic activities.
00:20Number three, when you do double-check the data very carefully, because there's notable disruption from the Chinese U.S.
00:26holiday base effect.
00:27And even last year, we have some disruption factors as well.
00:31Okay, that's okay. So I know you've only had the benefit of hearing us give through the headline numbers.
00:37You know, when you look at what specific details are you curious to see now, now that you have a
00:42headline number that suggests things are better?
00:44Yeah, sure. So basically, we're seeing two or three reasons.
00:49The first one, so whether this kind of a consumption uptake in January, February can be extended even further.
00:55Okay.
00:56Frankly speaking, almost speaking, China consumption should be still under pressure.
01:01We're looking at some smaller trading subsidies and no much increase on the social spending.
01:08And also the housing price was, in fact, still negative.
01:12So that's why we're still some pressure over here.
01:15So that's a good start in this year, in January, February, could give up a little bit more confidence.
01:20But clearly, we need more. So that's the first one.
01:24Second one is the FI data. Last year was almost a 4% decline.
01:28And this year, we have almost a 2% increase.
01:31So that's a lot of questions over there, especially on the base effect last year.
01:36So do you think there is enough momentum in terms of the fixed asset investment?
01:39Now that we've turned positive, is there sustainability in these?
01:43And what's driving it, do you think? Is it mostly just, as you say, base effects?
01:47Or is it going to be more?
01:48So last year, why we saw a notable decline in second half last year?
01:53Three things.
01:54Number one, that's kind of a kitchen sink.
01:57Some base was brought down to ensure a decent growth in this year, in some local governments.
02:03Number two here, some projects are being delayed to this year to enjoy the fresh kind of support from a
02:09new five-year plan.
02:10Number three, some funding gap was there last year.
02:13Local governments tried to pay areas and debt using some funding for projects.
02:19So clearly, maybe some kind of disruptions have been normalized.
02:23So that's good news for the headline data.
02:25But clearly, the underground evidence shows maybe the change is not that dramatic.
02:30We have some disruption from the base effect and statistics.
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