00:00Thanks, Lisa. The U.S. and Israel have, of course, been in close coordination as they continue
00:04to make strikes against Iran. But last week, reporting emerged that an unlikely regional
00:09ally had also endorsed taking kinetic action against Tehran, Saudi Arabia. Now, the Saudis
00:15almost instantly refuted that report. But where exactly does the kingdom stand in this conflict?
00:20What is their relationship with the Islamic Republic? And will the regime in Tehran actually
00:25fall? We want to welcome our colleague, Michelle Hussain, who dug into all these issues with
00:31Professor Bernard Haeckel of Princeton, who's a regional expert with a surprisingly close
00:36relationship with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Michelle, thank you for joining us.
00:42Hello, Christina. I want to say I feel like I have pretty good contacts in my phone. But listening
00:47to your interview, I got WhatsApp envy because this professor apparently regularly texts with MBS in
00:54Saudi Arabia. Yes. Bernard Haeckel is based at Princeton. And about 10 years ago, he met Mohammed
01:01bin Salman in Saudi Arabia and then on a visit to the United States. And because Professor Haeckel
01:07is a native Arabic speaker, he was born and brought up in Lebanon, they are able to converse in the
01:12Crown Prince's native tongue. And they have kept in touch. They do speak regularly via WhatsApp often.
01:19And they speak both privately and on the record because Professor Haeckel has a book that's going
01:25to be coming out later this year about modern day Saudi Arabia. So that's the context. That's a particular
01:30insight he has. But in broad terms, essentially one week into this military action, we wanted to explore how
01:38quickly other countries in the region were brought in through Iranian retaliation and some of the
01:44complexities within those relationships in the region. So between Saudi Arabia and Iran, between
01:51Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the United States as well. So all of that was part of
01:57the
01:57tapestry that we explored with Bernard Haeckel for this weekend's episode of the show.
02:02I think that's so important because there is an instinct sometimes, especially with Americans,
02:06to kind of paint that region as a monolith. But it's really not. It's very different. And there is no
02:12love lost between Saudi and Iran. But this report was still surprising. And you asked him about this
02:18reporting that the Saudis had endorsed and maybe even encouraged these strikes. We want to play some
02:22of that sound. He did call Trump several times asking him not to attack. So that's the true version
02:29of it. And he having said that, he also warned the Iranians because the Iranians did threaten him
02:36that if they are existentially threatened, that they would attack him. And he warned the Iranians that if
02:42they were to attack him, he would have to defend himself and that he would launch attacks against
02:47Iran. And I think that's exactly what's likely to happen. You're going to see the Saudi Air Force
02:51getting involved in this war on the side of both the US and Israel. He is a nationalist. MBS is
02:56a
02:56nationalist. And he has to show his own population that he can defend the country against these attacks
03:02because the attacks have been on civilian targets and industrial targets. The major oil refinery has been
03:08attacked and so on. And so he needs to, like the Iranians, reestablished deterrence.
03:14So it sounds like he's saying he's refuting that initial report, but the Saudis may end up getting
03:19involved in this conflict anyway. Yes. So dialing back for a second, it was the Washington Post that
03:25reported that over the course of the last month, according to their sources, that Mohammed bin Salman
03:30had been urging President Trump to be part of action against Iran. And Bernard Haeckel,
03:37from his knowledge, is categorical that he does not believe that is the case, that there were
03:43conversations between MBS and President Trump in the last month. But that was the crown prince urging
03:48the US not to do this. So that's how Professor Haeckel sees it. I think then the point is that
03:55targets
03:56within Saudi Arabia have been targeted by Iran in the last few days, as have other countries.
04:02And so that leaves Mohammed bin Salman in this position where naturally he needs to not only show
04:08his population that he can defend them, but also in a very real way to try and prevent attacks on
04:16his
04:16territory. Because don't forget, Christina, he's in the midst of this massive transformation of his
04:21country. That's what he's trying to do through this big flagship Vision 2030 programme.
04:25It is why so many American and other companies are trying to make inroads into Saudi Arabia to be
04:31part of this transformation and the economic opportunity it represents. So at a very basic
04:36level, this kind of situation, missiles and drones flying about, airspace affected, confidence affected,
04:43shipping affected, all of that is driving a coach and horses through what he really wants to do with
04:48his country. Right. He's been really trying to appeal to Westerners, including Americans. As you
04:54mentioned, we've seen social media has been very interesting during this conflict. And up to this
04:59run, you see more and more Americans being brought by the Saudi government to see sites and post,
05:03you know, Saudi is a great place to visit. And obviously, this is complicating that in more ways
05:07than one. Before I let you go, President Trump has said he wants a say in who the next supreme
05:13leader is.
05:14Is that even possible? And based on your conversations, who are the likely candidates?
05:20Well, I think the ideal scenario for the United States would be that not only does the regime
05:27collapse or that it survives in some way that allows a Venezuela style scenario. This is the possibility that
05:33was one of the scenarios Bernard Haeckel set out for the future of Iran, that there is essentially someone more
05:38compliant in charge in Iran. Now, one of the complicating factors in that is that some of the
05:43other people they had in mind, the administration ended up being killed as part of the strikes. So,
05:50you know, that what how thought through that aspect of the plan is as well as the plan as a
05:56whole for
05:57Iran, one has to wonder about it. So what Bernard Haeckel does in this interview, and if people listen to
06:03the whole thing, they'll hear him set out all of this, he says that there are three scenarios for
06:07Iran. One is that the regime survives or indeed is strengthened. And he says that going into it,
06:15the regime already had the support of 20 percent of the Iranian population. Second scenario is some
06:20kind of Venezuela style situation. It survives, but the leadership is very different. And the third
06:27scenario, the one that Mohammed bin Salman and many others would be deeply worried about,
06:31is that it becomes a failed state, that it descends into civil war, that that level of collapse of the
06:37country as well as the regime puts incredible amounts of instability and turbulence right in
06:44the midst of of this already very complex part of the world. So I think we really continue to be
06:51at a
06:51really perilous time. And Bernard Haeckel says that he does not believe this war has been thought through
06:57a tool. All right, we're gonna have to leave it there. But I highly recommend everyone go listen
07:01to the full episode. It is out now. Thank you, Michelle. And be sure to subscribe to what else?
07:07The Michelle Hussain Show podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen and watch full episodes
07:12on the Bloomberg Business app.
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