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00:00As we are all here talking about oil prices and what this could do to the economy, we are not
00:04hearing the kind of rhetoric from the president we usually do about the U.S. going in, taking over
00:08oil markets, trying to profit somehow from a very expensive conflict. Why do you think that is?
00:14Well, partly, Christina, because advisors around him are pointing out exactly what you just laid
00:20out, that the energy markets are very rattled by this conflict. You have U.S. service members
00:26being killed. You just mentioned he's going to Dover later today. The gravity of the situation
00:32is such that his advisors, also some allies in the region, have advised him that focusing on
00:40anything other than the mission at hand is only going to exacerbate the situation and particularly
00:45the economy that's been so rattled by this because the Strait of Hormuz is closed, because of the fact
00:51that Qatar cannot produce LNG at the moment and don't know when they will presume so. All of those
00:57factors leading to gas prices going up in a critical midterm election year, and the White House just
01:03does not want to rattle things even further. And so any talk from the president of the United States
01:08about going in, claiming energy, claiming the oil in Iran, that could really just dump fuel on the
01:16fire, no pun intended. And so that is why he's kind of steered clear of that for now, for now.
01:22For now. Jeff Mason, we read a little bit from the president's post this morning, and I'm very
01:26curious as we watch guests arrive at this summit that's taking place at the president's golf resort
01:30in Florida, the Doral Golf Resort officials and leaders from Latin America. Your sense of what the
01:37president means, difficult to parse a tweet for concrete details about what a mission might entail,
01:42but perhaps you can help us understand the change in tone or what we should read into what the
01:46president wrote this morning about what's likely to happen over the course of the day.
01:50I mean, I think what you can read into that is that he's irritated that Iran is not just bowing
01:55to his
01:56will. And he has, you know, they decided over a week ago to stop negotiations because U.S. officials
02:04concluded that Iran was not seriously willing to talk about giving up its ballistic missile program
02:10and was still intent on pursuing a nuclear bomb. So that was what led in part, at least to President
02:16Trump making the decision to start the military action. Then in the course of this last week,
02:21he has encouraged, as I mean, I think he did it again yesterday, or at least the day before,
02:27he has encouraged the Iranian National Guard and police and everyone who's fighting to lay down their
02:33arms and give up. And that's just not what the Iranians are doing. And so that's annoying to him,
02:40irritating to him. And as a result, he is changing his rhetoric and saying that we're
02:45going to increase our attacks even further. Nancy, I want to ask you, because this war is
02:51hitting quite close to home and it's been getting some interesting reactions from Trump's base,
02:56the MAGA base. As you write, quote, the Iran war has emerged as a grave political vulnerability
03:01for Republicans ahead of a midterm election in which they're counting on the voters who delivered
03:06Trump a second term to keep their party in majority on Capitol Hill. Trump's agenda on
03:11everything from spending to trade will be hamstrung if Democrats rest control of even one chamber of
03:16Congress. Is there a way for Trump and Republicans to get out from under this or is this a huge
03:22problem
03:23for them going into November? Well, I think it's a large problem for them going into November because
03:28as Vivian said earlier, you know, we're facing potentially higher energy prices. And also just more
03:34philosophically, this is not what the MAGA base signed up for. You know, they signed up for a president who
03:41had an America First agenda, who did not want to get embroiled in conflicts in the Middle East. He was
03:48very
03:48critical of President Bush's incursion into Iraq. He was very critical of President Biden's withdrawal from
03:55Afghanistan. You know, his message as a candidate since his 2016 campaign has been no more forever
04:01wars. It's much more isolationist message. And now we've seen him really engage in a lot of military
04:07intervention, first in Venezuela, now in Iran. His advisors are also eyeing leadership changes in Cuba.
04:14And so it's just a real philosophical break with what the MAGA base expected for him. And they're not
04:23they're not happy about it. You have a bunch of MAGA voices like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly making
04:28a lot of noise. Some Republican lawmakers are privately quite worried about this. And so, you know,
04:35it's just another thing along with the Epstein files, along with the economy where the base is not
04:41really happy with the job that he's doing. Can't commend this piece enough. MAGA is split. Trump digs
04:46in on Iran war, divides loyalists by Nancy and Josh Green, our colleague here at Bloomberg. And Nancy,
04:51I'm curious, you say they're making a lot of noise, the likes of Megyn Kelly, Tucker Carlson,
04:55Marjorie Taylor Greene, the now former representative. I'm curious sort of how they see their
04:59currency at this moment. I think there's been some dismissiveness from this White House about
05:04the criticism that they've gotten. We certainly saw that in the context of this war powers vote
05:07that took place earlier this week. Thomas Massey, the Republican from Kentucky, chief proponent of
05:12that. Do they feel like this moment is different, the MAGA crowd? And do they feel like they have the
05:17currency here to kind of change or make a difference in terms of the way the president
05:21sees some of these issues? Well, I think the MAGA crowd is making a lot of noise right now. I
05:26think
05:26the question is, is that typically, you know, this MAGA crowd does fold and get in line with Trump.
05:32We've seen that with tariffs. We've seen that with some of the things that have happened with
05:36immigration, with the two people who were killed in Minnesota. And so my question is, you know,
05:41if the war continues in Iran, and if it's a multi-week thing or a multi-month thing, or Trump
05:47ends up putting boots on the ground in Iran, do they come into the fold at some point to support
05:52Trump as they have in the past? Or are they going to keep making noise? The other thing I will
05:57just
05:57say is that the Trump coalition from 2024 that brought him back to power of voters is a very fragile
06:02coalition of white working class, young men, Black men, Hispanics. And we've already seen that
06:08group of voters fray a little bit over the last, you know, eight months or so. And so it's not
06:13just
06:14these influencers that Trump is trying to hold on to and appeal to. It's really also the coalition
06:19of people who returned him to the White House in 2024. Can he motivate those people to go to the
06:25midterms? And I think that's an open question with his foreign policy moves. Vivian, I want to go back
06:30to you because you and I actually first met covering the first Trump administration when that
06:34administration was focused on the Western Hemisphere. We met on a trip with Vice President
06:38Pence and Vivian very kindly let me have the cool seat near the door of the helicopter with the door
06:43open. She's a lovely colleague. I'll never forgive you. It's okay. I regret it, but I don't regret it.
06:52Giving it to you is probably generous. But even on that trip, like during the first administration,
06:57we had this administration trying to kind of pivot to their backyard, right? We talked about these
07:02spheres of influence. And it's almost like the pivot to Asia that we've seen with successive
07:07administrations. The Trump administration keeps trying to pivot to the Western Hemisphere. And
07:11yet we're back in the Middle East again. And you've got some reporting and some insight into
07:15where this might be going next. And that sounds like they are seriously thinking about talking to
07:20Cuba, making inroads in Cuba, taking action in Cuba. What are we doing? I mean, the president has made
07:26no secret of the fact, and I know that Nancy just alluded to it as well, where he told CNN's
07:32Dana Bash yesterday in a phone call that Cuba is next on his list and that talks are already underway
07:38to make that happen. About a week ago, he mused to journalists over a friendly takeover of Cuba.
07:44They've made no secret of this. They do believe that the time is right for a Cuba operation and that
07:50this would be really kind of critical at cementing the president's legacy if he could have taken care
07:56of Venezuela, toppled the clerical leadership of Iran, and then possibly remove the post-Castro
08:06communist regime of Cuba. They believe that this is a trio of accomplishments that would really kind of
08:12put him there above the legacies of presidents like Reagan or Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon on the
08:18foreign policy front. Now, of course, as my colleagues laid out, you know, it has been very
08:23unpopular among his base. And this is one of the big struggles is that, you know, on the one hand,
08:28he is essentially a lame duck president who is thinking about his legacy. And on the other hand,
08:34we are in a critical midterm election year. And he has to think about, you know, keeping, you know,
08:39bolstering those Republicans that right now are struggling in the lead up to this year's midterm
08:44elections because the economy has been struggling because of all these other factors as well.
08:50And so the president, you know, is being told by his White House advisors that we need to get back
08:55to
08:55focusing on issues like affordability in the economy. But he's really found his footing, if you will,
09:03on these foreign policy issues. And he believes that they've been going extremely well, despite the
09:08fact that the war in Iran is very much in play. And there's really no telling how long it will
09:14last
09:14or how successful it will be. He's already eyeing this third target.
09:19Jeff Mason, let's talk a bit about messaging, internal and external messaging. So picking up on
09:23what Vivian was just talking about there, who are the advisors to President Trump who are advising him
09:27to do this? And indeed, how does it complicate his messaging case going forward externally?
09:33Nancy laying out the degree to which this is landing flat with a lot of the president's base.
09:38As we see gas prices going up so significantly here over the last few days,
09:42talk about the complicated nature of messaging this, this foreign involvement to the U.S.
09:47electorate broadly.
09:49Sure. Well, a couple of things. First of all, if I'm ever on a trip with Vivian,
09:52I hope that she gives me the good seat.
09:54There we go.
09:55But second of all, both Vivian and Nancy laid it out really well. And Nancy's points about
10:00MAGA, at least part of MAGA, raising concerns about this creates a huge political risk,
10:06of course, for the president going into the midterms. That said, I think it's really important
10:10to note that it takes a lot for the president's base to part with him. The biggest political
10:17thorn in his side, at least with regard to his base over the last year, has been the Jeffrey Epstein
10:21files. And even with that, they are still supporting him. And I think the polls show largely still
10:29supporting him right now with the war in Iraq, excuse me, with the war in Iran, despite, of
10:34course, some vocal outliers who are public voices like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly,
10:42as Nancy referred to. In terms of messaging, David, to your question, part of it, what we've
10:48seen from President Trump is he likes to claim ownership of MAGA. He will say things along the
10:54lines of I am MAGA. And so far, that's worked pretty well for him. If he says more or less,
10:59hey, just do this, because this is what I want. In most cases, they fall in line. Outlier again,
11:05with the Jeffrey Epstein files, I think it's TBD, whether they completely fall in line with this war.
11:11And that, as Vivian was saying, will depend entirely on how successful it ends up being,
11:16and how long it goes. And the third piece, to what extent it has long-term economic ramifications
11:23on gasoline prices, on inflation, in ways that will affect people's votes and pocketbooks as
11:30they're going into the polling booth in November. First of all, Jeff, karma did come for me because
11:34Vivian then stuck me in the middle seat for the entire flight back. And it was a very long flight.
11:38So don't worry, I got my comeuppance. Nancy, before we go, though, I do want to ask,
11:43what does the president do if he loses the midterms? How does he handle that?
11:51Well, what we're expecting, and what his advisors are expecting, is that Republicans will lose the
11:56House. That is what they privately think. And they think that they will very narrowly hold onto the
12:01Senate. And so, you know, if that's the case, we're going to end up with divided government.
12:06There will be a ton of investigations into the Trump White House, cabinet members, corruption.
12:11Trump could be impeached again. And so, you know, if he does lose the House, it's going to be a
12:17whole
12:17different last two years of his presidency, one that will be dominated by investigations,
12:25you know, having to set up sort of war rooms and lawyers to deal with that. And that's really what
12:30we saw during the first Trump term as well. The last two years of his presidency were dominated by
12:36dealing with those issues. And that will be part of his legacy, just as he now views these nation
12:42building foreign policies incursions as part of his legacy.
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